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La predicción tecnológica
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.15446/ing.investig.n3.28734Keywords:
tecnología, predicción tecnológica, predicción científica (es)tecnología, predicción tecnológica, predicción científica (en)
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Los cambios en la organización empresarial caracterizados por la multiplicidad de variables, la velocidad de dichos cambios, el número de opciones cada vez mes crecientes y la incertidumbre del futuro plantean la necesidad de la planeación para implementar una filosofía administrativa que focalice los esfuerzos, aproveche las coyunturas, facilite la administración del cambio tecnológico, disminuya riesgos, amenazas y puntos débiles realmente significativos y visualice el desempeño futuro de la organización con el propósito final de garantizar la supervivencia de la empresa en condiciones mínimas.
References
Bright. James R. “A Brief Introduction to Technology forecasting” 3a. edición. 1974. Austin. Texas. Industrial Management Center.
“Technological forecasting for Industry and Government” Prentice Hall. 1968.
Vásquez Alfonso, “Predicción Tecnológica” —IV— Congreso de Calculo Electrónico e Investigación Operacional. Bogotá, 1974.
Estes, Geradl; Kuespert Don. “Delphi in Industrial Forecasting”. Chemical Engineering. August 23, 1976
Earl C. Joseph “Forecasting the future using Scenarios” Univac Division Sperry Rand Corp. April 1972
Zentner, Rene D., “Scenarios in Forecasting” Chemical Engineering. Oct. 6, 1975.
Helmer, Olaf. “Cross impact gaming”. Futures, June 1972.
Goodrich Robert. House R., “Systems Engeneering Methodology” VI Reunion Técnica Anual —IEEE Seccional Colombia Bogotá. 1976.
Bunge Mario. “La investigación científica. Ariel.
Churman, C. West. “El futuro del pasado: estimación de tendencias según la Teoría General de Sistemas” en “Trends in General Systems Theory” —John Wiley— compilado por George Klir, L. Bertalanffy, W.R. Ashby, G.M. Weimburg, etc. Traducción Editorial Alianza.
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Copyright (c) 1982 Alfonso Pérez Gama
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