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Risk and Protective Factors for Suicidal Ideation in the Chilean Population: Implications of a National Health Survey Analysis
Factores de Riesgo y Protección para las Ideas Suicidas en la Población Chilena: Implicaciones de un Análisis de la Encuesta Nacional de Salud
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.15446/rcp.v35n2.116517Keywords:
Suicidal ideation, Prevention, Mental Health (en)ideación suicida, prevención, salud mental (es)
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Suicide poses a significant public health challenge, with concerning rates globally, including Chile, particularly among men and young adults. While multiple models explain suicidal behaviour, population-level research in Chile remains limited, emphasizing the need for predictive studies. The study aims to identify variables associated with suicidal ideation in the Chilean population aged 15 and above, including health variables, by using a multifactorial predictive model. A binomial logistic regression using National Health Survey data was performed. Results indicated that divorced and cohabiting individuals showed a higher risk of suicidal ideation. Higher education and lower BMI are protective factors against suicidal ideation, while poor health perception, stress perception, sleep issues, anxiety, and depression increase suicidal ideation risk. Retirement is a protective factor, with varying risk profiles across occupational categories. This model demonstrated moderate predictive capability (AUC = 0.73), validated through training and test sample split, but showed very low sensitivity (14%) and poor calibration, limiting its usefulness as a screening tool. Nevertheless, this research contributes to public health by identifying risk factors and developing early warning systems for suicide prevention.
El suicidio representa un importante desafío de salud pública, con tasas preocupantes a nivel global -incluido Chile- especialmente entre los hombres y los adultos jóvenes. Si bien existen múltiples modelos que explican el comportamiento suicida, la investigación a nivel poblacional en Chile sigue siendo limitada, lo que destaca la necesidad de estudios predictivos. Este estudio tiene como objetivo identificar variables asociadas a la ideación suicida en la población chilena de 15 años y más, incluyendo variables de salud, usando un modelo predictivo multifactorial. Se realizó una regresión logística binomial utilizando datos de la Encuesta Nacional de Salud. Los resultados mostraron que los individuos divorciados y que cohabitaban mostraban un mayor riesgo de ideación suicida. La educación superior es un factor protector contra la ideación suicida, mientras que la percepción del estrés, los problemas de sueño, la ansiedad y la presencia de depresión aumentan el riesgo de ideación suicida. La jubilación es un factor protector, con perfiles de riesgo variables según las categorías ocupacionales. Este modelo demostró una capacidad predictiva moderada (AUC: 73%), validada mediante entrenamiento y división de datos de prueba, pero muestra una baja sensibilidad (14%) y pobre calibración, lo que limita su usabilidad como herramienta de tamizaje Sin embargo, esta investigación contribuye a la salud pública identificando factores de riesgo y desarrollando sistemas de alerta temprana para la prevención del suicidio.
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