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DNINFOA - SIA
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Publicado
Dinámica de los aportes totales al sistema hidroeléctrico interconectado nacional colombiano
Palabras clave:
Hidrología, Predicción, Modelos STR, Sistema hidroeléctrico-Colombia (es)Hydrology, Prediction, STR models (en)
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En este artículo se analiza la dinámica de los aportes totales al sistema hidroeléctrico colombiano de generación desde la creación de la Bolsa de Energía, y se presenta un modelo autoregresivo de transición logística para su modelación. El modelo propuesto pasó un conjunto de pruebas estándar de diagnóstico. El análisis realizado indica que un modelo lineal autoregresivo no representa completamente las características no lineales intrínsecas a la dinámica de la serie. El modelo no lineal propuesto consta de dos modelos lineales, que representan la dinámica de los aportes ’’altos” y ’’bajos”. Aunque el modelo obtenido es caótico localmente, permite realizar la predicción de los aportes mensuales totales varios meses adelante.
In this paper the dynamic of the total flows to the Colombian hydro electrical generation system since the creation of the spot market is analyzed, and a logistic smooth transition autoregressive model is used for its representation. The proposed model passes a battery of diagnostic standard tests. The results of the realized analysis indicate that a linear autoregressive model is not being able for representing completely the intrinsic non-linear characteristics of the time series dynamic. The proposed model is formed by two linear autoregressive models representing the dynamics of the high and low flows. Although the obtained model is locally chaotic, it allows to realize the prediction for the total monthly flows several periods ahead.
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