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Modelling decision rules in System Dynamics Models
Palabras clave:
Decision Rules, System Dynamics, Modelling (en)Reglas de Decisión, Dinámica de Sistemas, Modelamiento (es)
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This paper focuses on modelling decision rules, fundamental components of simulation models and one of the most difficult tasks in modelling and analysis. Modelling decision rules in system dynamics models follows the process described by the Scientific Method, by which scientists (in this case, modellers) make an effort to construct an accurate representation of the world (in this case, representations of human decisions in systems dynamics models). Consequently, the paper is organized in the light of the scientific method. Decision rules should be shaped by the purpose of the model and be based on a theory of human decision making. I believe that human decision fail to satisfy most of the assumptions of the rational choice theory. This leads to persistent and systematic deviations from the prediction of the rational choice theory. Therefore, if there is an agreement that models should represent reality, the use of bounded rationality theory is a better approximation to model human decisions. Techniques for building decision rules from system dynamics and other modelling schools are presented.
Este artículo es sobre el modelamienlo de “reglas de decisión” como componentes fundamentales de los modelos de simulación y una de las mas difíciles tareas en modelamiento y análisis. Las reglas de decisión en modelos de dinámica de sistemas siguen el método científico, en donde el científico (en este caso, el modelador) hace un esfuerzo en construir adecuadamente el mundo real (en este caso, la representación de decisiones humanas en modelos de dinámica de sistemas). Consecuentemente, este artículo está organizado siguiendo el método científico. Las reglas de decisión deberían estar basadas de acuerdo con el propósito del modelo y con una teoría de toma de decisiones. Personalmente, creo en que las decisiones humanas fallan en satisfacer la mayoría de las suposiciones de la teoría de selección racional. Por lo tanto, si se desea que los modelos representen sistemas reales, la teoría de racionalidad limitada es una mejor aproximación para la representación de decisiones humanas. Se presentan algunas técnicas para el modelamiento de reglas de decisión de la dinámica de sistemas y de otras escuelas de modelamiento.
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