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Resiliencia socioecológica y modelación dinámica de sistemas en sistemas acuáticos. Una revisión
Social-Ecological Resilience and System Dynamic Modeling in Aquatic Systems. A Review
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.15446/ga.v24n2.89176Palabras clave:
Sistemas dinámicos, modelación, sustentabilidad, ecosistemas (es)Dynamic systems, modeling, sustainability, ecosystems (en)
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Este artículo de revisión busca identificar las tendencias presentes en la utilización de modelos de simulación dinámica como herramienta de estudio multidisciplinar de la resiliencia socioecológica en ecosistemas acuáticos, las tendencias obtenidas de la revisión bibliográfica permiten reconocer la distribución geográfica, las dimensiones utilizadas en la construcción de los modelos, así como los enfoques de aplicación y las variables requeridas. Esta revisión fue elaborada a partir de la búsqueda sistemática de artículos relacionados en cuatro bases de datos, para un lapso de 10 años (2010-2020), a escala mundial. Como resultados se evidencia que, dentro de la clasificación establecida para los modelos de simulación dinámica, los modelos numéricos, predictivos y de eventos continuos muestran una tendencia de utilización mayor que los demás (entre el 50 y 70 %). De igual manera, frente a la resiliencia socioecológica los enfoques con mayor relación son el cambio climático, toma de decisiones y sustentabilidad; así mismo, se encontró que la mayor cantidad de publicaciones revisadas provienen de Europa (40 %), además de reconocer que para la construcción de modelos de simulación utilizados en el estudio de la resiliencia en ecosistemas acuáticos se utilizan preferentemente variables sociales, ecológicas y biofísicas, tanto de orden cuantitativo como cualitativo. Es por lo anterior, que se establece que los modelos de simulación dinámica asociados a la resiliencia socioecológica poseen un desarrollo temático orientado a la construcción de modelos mixtos que involucran variables multidimensionales para elaborar representaciones del fenómeno que permiten definir su comportamiento a escalas espacio-temporales distintas.
This review article seeks to identify trends in the use of dynamic simulation models as a tool for the multidisciplinary study of socioecological resilience in aquatic ecosystems. The trends obtained from the literature review allow us to recognize the geographic distribution, the dimensions used in the construction of the models, as well as the application approaches and the variables required. This review was elaborated from the systematic search of related articles in four databases, for a period of 10 years (2010-2020), worldwide. The results show that, within the classification established for dynamic simulation models, numerical, predictive and continuous event models show a higher utilization trend than the others (between 50 and 70 %). Likewise, with respect to socioecological resilience, the approaches with the greatest relationship are climate change, decision making and sustainability; likewise, it was found that the largest number of publications reviewed come from Europe (40 %), in addition to recognizing that for the construction of simulation models used in the study of resilience in aquatic ecosystems, social, ecological and biophysical variables, both quantitative and qualitative, are preferentially used. Therefore, it is established that the dynamic simulation models associated with social-ecological resilience have a thematic development oriented to the construction of mixed models that involve multidimensional variables to elaborate representations of the phenomenon that allow defining its behavior at different spatio-temporal scales.
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