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Uncertainty-Aware Estimation of Feasible Operation Region in Distribution Networks
Estimación de la Región de Operación Factible con Consideraciones de Incertidumbre en Redes de Distribución
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https://doi.org/10.15446/sicel.v12.121207Palabras clave:
Distributed Energy Resources, Uncertainty modeling, Feasible Operation Region (en)Recursos Energéticos Distribuidos, Modelado de Incertidumbres, Región de Operación Factible (es)
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The energy transition is redefining power distribution through the increasing integration of Distributed Energy Resources (DER), which introduces new challenges for system operation and planning. The Feasible Operation Region (FOR) has emerged as a key tool to quantify and communicate flexibility in distribution networks. However, estimating the FOR under uncertainty remains complex due to the variability of renewable generation, demand fluctuations, and limited data. This article presents a comprehensive review of uncertainty quantification and modeling methods used in the estimation of the FOR, including probabilistic, possibilistic, stochastic, and robust approaches, as well as hybrid, IGDT and fuzzy-robust models. It also analyzes the impact of these methodologies on flexibility estimation, identifies limitations in current practices, and highlights opportunities for improving system resilience. Particular attention is given to emerging techniques and their relevance for data-scarce environments like Latin America. The findings under-score the importance of developing integrated uncertainty models that address both physical and cyber risks to enhance decision-making in active distribution networks.
La transición energética está transformando la distribución eléctrica mediante la creciente integración de Recursos Energéticos Distribuidos (DER), lo cual plantea nuevos desafíos operativos y de planificación. La Región de Operación Factible (FOR) es ha con-solidado como una herramienta clave para cuantificar y comunicar la flexibilidad en redes de distribución. No obstante, su estima-ción bajo condiciones de incertidumbre es compleja debido a la variabilidad de la generación renovable, las fluctuaciones de demanda y la escasez de datos. Este articulo presenta una revisión integral de los métodos de cuantificación y modelado de incer-tidumbre aplicados en la construcción de la FOR, incluyendo enfoques probabilísticos, posibilísticos, estocásticos, robustos e híbri-dos, IGDT y modelos difusos. Se analiza el impacto de estas metodologías en la estimación de flexibilidad, se identifican limitaciones en las practicas actuales y se destacan oportunidades para mejorar la resiliencia del sistema. Se presta especial atención a técni-cas emergentes y su relevancia en contextos de escasez de datos, como en América Latina. Los resultados resaltan la necesidad de modelos de incertidumbre integrados que consideren riesgos físicos y cibernéticos para fortalecer la toma de decisiones en redes de distribución activas.
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Licencia
Derechos de autor 2026 Kevin Aarón Raudales De vicente, Gastón Orlando Suvire, Andrés Arturo Romero Quete
Esta obra está bajo una licencia internacional Creative Commons Atribución 4.0.
