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PRELIMINARY MODEL OF POTENTIAL AREAS FOR RESTORATION FOR THE INTER-ANDEAN VALLEY OF CAUCA RIVER (COLOMBIA, SOUTH AMERICA) BASED ON HABITAT SUITABILITY MODELS
Modelo preliminar de áreas potenciales de restauración para el valle interandino del río Cauca (Colombia, Suramérica) basado en modelos de idoneidad de hábitat
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https://doi.org/10.15446/abc.v29n2.103070Palabras clave:
Deciduous forest, ecological niche, landscape management, modeling, sustainable development (en)Bosque deciduo, desarrollo sostenible, gestión del paisaje, nicho ecológico, modelación (es)
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Tropical dry forests (TDF) are highly susceptible to land degradation. The inter-Andean Valley of the Cauca River (IVCR) has the most fragmented Colombian dry forests, and their restoration is essential. Here, potential areas for restoration were identified using a habitat suitability modeling (HSM) approach. TDF vascular plants and bioclimatic predictors were used. Species were selected based on threatened status, endemism, and priority level for conservation. Two sets of predictors were chosen using Variance Inflation Factor (VIF) and Principal Component Analysis (PCA). Then, with a maximum entropy algorithm, PCA and VIF models were projected for the selected species. These models were evaluated via true skill statistics (TSS) and area under the curve (AUC) statistical metrics. Models with good performance (TSS, AUC, standard deviation, variance) were ensembled, and a preliminary model where areas with suitable bioclimatic conditions for the selected species were generated. Results show that nearly 45 % of the IVCR has suitable conditions for the selected species. Although potential conflicts may arise in areas under permanent or semipermanent crops which represent more than 80 % of the IVCR, cropland mosaics, and natural and seminatural land covers might provide alternative solutions to reduce the land-use conflict. The potential areas for restoration identified in this study may provide a comprehensive framework for environmental impact and regional risk assessments related to the current land use and land cover change dynamics. Also, they may provide relevant information for designing landscape restoration programs as an adaptive strategy toward climate change.
Los bosques secos tropicales (BsT) son ecosistemas vulnerables a la degradación. En el Valle Interandino del Río Cauca (VIRC), los BsT están muy fragmentados y necesitan restauración. Para identificar áreas potenciales de restauración se aplicó modelación de idoneidad del hábitat (HSM) utilizando plantas vasculares del BsT y predictores bioclimáticos. Se escogieron especies según su amenaza, endemismo y prioridad de conservación, y las variables según el factor de inflación de varianza (FIV) y el análisis de componentes principales (ACP). Usando un algoritmo de máxima entropía y predictores ACP y FIV seleccionados, se identificaron áreas bioclimáticas idóneas para las especies seleccionadas. Estos modelos se evaluaron a través de las métricas True skill statistic (TSS) y del área bajo la curva (AUC). Modelos con buen desempeño (TSS, AUC, desviación estándar, varianza) se ensamblaron en un modelo preliminar donde se observó que cerca del 45 % del VIRC tiene condiciones adecuadas. Aunque pueden darse conflictos potenciales para la restauración en áreas con cultivos permanentes o semipermanentes (80 % del VIRC), los mosaicos de tierras de cultivo y las coberturas naturales y seminaturales ofrecen soluciones alternativas para reducirlos. Las áreas potenciales para la restauración identificadas en este estudio pueden proporcionar un marco integral para estudios del impacto ambiental y de riesgo regional relacionadas con el uso actual de la tierra y las dinámicas de cambios de uso. Asimismo, esta investigación aporta elementos importantes para el diseño de programas de restauración del paisaje como estrategia de adaptación al cambio climático.
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