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Climate change-driven shifts in temperature and precipitation across elevation gradients in Colombia: Implications for agroclimatic zoning of high-value fruit crops
Cambios en temperatura y precipitación provocados por el cambio climático en los gradientes altitudinales de Colombia: implicaciones para la zonificación agroclimática de cultivos frutales de alto valor
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.15446/agron.colomb.v44n1.121343Keywords:
climate variability, climate change scenarios, heat stress, water stress, ecophysiology (en)variabilidad climática, escenarios de cambio climático, estrés por calor, estrés hídrico, ecofisiología (es)
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The fruit industry is crucial to Colombia’s economy, positioning the country as an emerging global producer and exporter. The aim of this research was to understand potential changes in temperature and precipitation in Colombia’s areas of fruit production under climate change scenarios. Because zoning processes use climatological norms, we investigated future climate impacts on zones ranging from 0 to 3000 m in elevation. We selected macroclimates based on elevation: warm (0-1,000 m), medium (1,001-2,000 m), and cold (2,001-3,000 m). We chose high-potential fruit crops: avocado, banana, strawberry, purple passion fruit, mango, papaya, and pineapple. For this current climate analysis, validated climatological normals for 1970-2000 from WorldClim 2.1 were used, while the potential effects of climate change were evaluated using the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) 126, 245, 370, and 585, along with 12 global circulation models (GCMs) for 2021-2040. Our findings indicated temperature increases of up to 1.8°C across all altitudinal profiles, with the most significant variation between 0 and 1,000 m, where average temperatures could exceed 35°C. Precipitation patterns were expected to be more variable, with some areas experiencing increases and others significant decreases. These results suggested that current areas might change due to variations in temperature and precipitation, thereby imposing environmental constraints on many of the studied fruit crops. This work contributed to an incorporation of climate change into the design of public policy for fruit cultivation, supporting dynamic zoning efforts, and highlighting the need to implement adaptation and mitigation strategies.
La industria frutícola es crucial para la economía de Colombia, posicionando al país como un productor y exportador mundial emergente. El objetivo de este estudio fue comprender los posibles cambios de temperatura y precipitación en las zonas de producción frutícola de Colombia bajo escenarios de cambio climático. Dado que los procesos de zonificación utilizan normas climatológicas, investigamos los futuros impactos climáticos en zonas que oscilan entre 0 y 3000 m de altitud. Seleccionamos macroclimas en función de la altitud: cálido (0- 1000 m), medio (1001-2000 m) y frío (2001-3000 m). Se eligieron cultivos frutales de alto potencial, a saber, aguacate, plátano, fresa, gulupa, mango, maracuyá, papaya y piña. Para el análisis climático actual, se utilizaron valores climatológicos normales validados para 1970-2000 de WorldClim 2.1, mientras que los efectos potenciales del cambio climático se evaluaron utilizando las Vías Socioeconómicas Compartidas (SSP) 126, 245, 370 y 585, junto con 12 Modelos de Circulación Global (GCM) para 2021-2040. Nuestros resultados indicaron aumentos de temperatura de hasta 1,8°C en todos los perfiles altitudinales, con la variación más significativa entre 0 y 1000 m, donde las temperaturas medias podrían superar los 35°C. Se esperaba que los patrones de precipitación fueran más variables, con algunas zonas experimentando aumentos y otras disminuciones significativas. Estos resultados sugieren que las áreas de zonificación actuales pueden cambiar debido a variaciones en la temperatura y la precipitación, dando lugar a limitaciones ambientales para muchos de los cultivos frutales estudiados. Este trabajo contribuye a la incorporación del cambio climático en el diseño de políticas públicas para el cultivo de frutales, apoyando los esfuerzos de zonificación dinámica y plantea la necesidad de implementar estrategias de adaptación y mitigación.
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