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Modeling the spatiotemporal climate vulnerability of Colombia’s potato production areas with homologous climate zones and ensemble future climate scenarios
Vulnerabilidad espacial de las áreas productivas de papa en Colombia bajo escenarios de cambio climático
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.15446/agron.colomb.v43n3.121630Keywords:
Solanum tuberosum, adaptation strategies, agricultural risk, climate change, spatial analysis (en)Solanum tuberosum, estrategias de adaptación, riesgo agrícola, cambio climático, análisis espacial (es)
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The potato (Solanum tuberosum L.) is an essential crop in Colombia’s high Andean regions, where smallholder farmers rely on production systems that are highly sensitive to climate variability and have limited adaptation options. Rising temperatures and shifts in precipitation patterns are already placing significant pressure on these systems, especially those dependent on rainfed agriculture. The aim of this study was to characterize future climatic conditions as a foundation for assessing the spatiotemporal climate vulnerability of potato-producing regions in Colombia under climate change scenarios. To accomplish this, we integrated in situ observations from 296 meteorological stations with synthetic climate datasets, specifically WorldClim and CHELSA, and validated their performance under local conditions. We also developed a weighted multi-model ensemble using nine General Circulation Models aligned with the RCP 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5 scenarios to project potential changes in temperature and precipitation across the country’s major potato-growing areas. To better contextualize these projections, we defined homologous climate zones and applied the Lang index and a proposed index for water deficit and excess as an indicator of vulnerability associated with water availability. The results reveal substantial variation among models and scenarios, emphasizing the importance of ensemble approaches calibrated with historical local data. In addition, we found a clear trend toward increasing aridification and a reduction in suitability for potato cultivation in several regions. These findings highlight the need for timely adaptation strategies and for strengthening agricultural planning using reliable climate information.
La papa (Solanum tuberosum L.) es un cultivo esencial en las zonas altoandinas de Colombia, donde pequeños agricultores dependen de sistemas productivos altamente sensibles al clima y con escasas herramientas de adaptación. El incremento de las temperaturas y las variaciones en los patrones de precipitación ya generan presiones significativas sobre estos sistemas, especialmente en aquellos basados en la agricultura de secano. El objetivo de este estudio fue caracterizar las condiciones climáticas futuras como base para evaluar la vulnerabilidad climática espacio-temporal de las regiones productoras de papa en Colombia bajo escenarios de cambio climático. Para ello, se integraron observaciones in situ provenientes de 296 estaciones meteorológicas con bases de datos climáticas sintéticas, específicamente WorldClim y CHELSA, validando su desempeño frente a las condiciones locales. Asimismo, se construyó un ensamble multimodelo ponderado utilizando nueve Modelos de Circulación General correspondientes a los escenarios RCP 4.5, 6.0 y 8.5, con el propósito de proyectar cambios en temperatura y precipitación en las principales zonas productoras del país. Para contextualizar estas proyecciones, se definieron zonas climáticas homólogas y se aplicó el índice de Lang y un índice de exceso y déficit hídrico como indicador de vulnerabilidad asociada a la disponibilidad hídrica. Los resultados evidencian variaciones entre modelos y escenarios, resaltando la importancia de utilizar esquemas de ensamble basados en series históricas locales. Además, se observó una tendencia hacia una mayor aridificación y una reducción en la aptitud para el cultivo de papa en varias regiones. Estos hallazgos subrayan la necesidad de implementar medidas de adaptación oportunas y de fortalecer la planificación agrícola mediante información climática confiable.
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