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La participación electoral de los inmigrantes en las elecciones locales de Chile entre 2012 y 2021
THE ELECTORAL PARTICIPATION OF IMMIGRANTS IN LOCAL ELECTIONS IN CHILE FROM 2012 TO 2021
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.15446/anpol.v37n108.116925Palabras clave:
Inmigrantes, Participación electoral, Elección de alcaldes, Variables sociodemográficas, Chile (es)Immigrants, Electoral participation, Mayoral elections, Socio-demographic variables, Chile (en)
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Existe un amplio debate sobre la extensión de los derechos de ciudadanía para la población inmigrante. Chile destaca por su diseño institucional incluyente. Los inmigrantes tienen derecho a voto luego de acreditar cinco años de residencia y, además, quedan inscritos automáticamente en el padrón electoral. La teoría ha avanzado significativamente en comprender la participación electoral de los inmigrantes, pero en general se estudian las elecciones nacionales y se dejan en un segundo plano las votaciones locales. Sugerimos que es, precisamente, en las elecciones locales unipersonales, con sistemas electorales mayoritarios, donde el voto inmigrante puede definir una elección. ¿De qué depende la participación electoral de los inmigrantes?, ¿en qué medida el sexo y la edad de los inmigrantes explica su participación electoral?, ¿en qué municipios el voto inmigrante podría ser más decisivo? Respondemos estas preguntas a partir de tres resultados. Primero, advertimos una brecha de género en la participación electoral de los inmigrantes favorable a las mujeres. Después constatamos que el efecto cuadrático de la edad sobre la participación electoral es menos intenso en el grupo de inmigrantes comparado con los nacionales. Por último, proponemos un índice de incidencia municipal de los inmigrantes (IMIM) que permite identificar las comunas más propensas a definir la elección de alcaldes de acuerdo con el volumen de población inmigrante.
There is a broad debate about extending citizenship rights to the migrant population. Chile is unique for its inclusive institutional policy, under which immigrants have the right to vote after five years of residency and are automatically registered on the electoral roll. Significant progress has been made in understanding immigrant electoral participation; but studies usually focus on national elections, leaving local elections in the background. We argue that it is precisely in single-member municipal elections with majoritarian electoral systems where the immigrant vote can determine the result of an election: What does immigrant participation depend on? To what extent do immigrants’ gender and age explain their participation? In which municipalities might the immigrant vote be most decisive? We answer these questions reaching three conclusions. First, we find a gender gap in immigrant turnout in favour of women. Second, we find that the quadratic effect of age on turnout is weaker in the immigrant group than in the native group. Third, we propose an index of immigrants’ municipal incidence (IMIM), which allows us to identify the municipalities most likely to define their mayoral elections according to the size of the immigrant population.
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