Publicado
EL MODELO DE GUERRA AFGANO Y LA ESTABILIDAD REGIONAL: LA ESTRATEGIA DE INTERVENCIÓN MILITAR ESTADOUNIDENSE EN SIRIA E IRAK
THE AFGHAN WAR MODEL AND REGIONAL STABILITY: THE UNITED STATES’ MILITARY INTERVENTION STRATEGY IN SYRIA AND IRAQ
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.15446/anpol.v30n91.70265Palabras clave:
modelo de guerra afgano, guerra sustituta, estabilidad regional, Siria, Irak. (es)Afghan warfare model, surrogate warfare, regional stability, Syria, Iraq. (en)
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Las guerras no convencionales que tienen lugar en Siria e Irak se caracterizan por la participación de una compleja red de actores estatales y no estatales que aplican técnicas asimétricas de lucha en una región profundamente dividida en líneas religiosas y étnicas. Ante este escenario, la administración Obama intervino militarmente en la zona aplicando el modelo de guerra afgano; una estrategia que reemplaza a las tropas convencionales estadounidenses en el terreno por aliados locales que son respaldados por el poder aéreo norteamericano y por las Fuerzas de Operaciones Especiales. A pesar de que existe un consenso en torno a que cada método de guerra posee tanto fortalezas como debilidades, aún prevalece como una cuestión debatible las implicaciones que este modelo puede generar sobre la estabilidad regional.
El presente artículo establece las implicaciones que el modelo de guerra afgano implementado por la administración estadounidense en Siria e Irak puede generar sobre la estabilidad regional. Para ello, se caracteriza la situación de conflicto en cada uno de estos países y se analiza la manera en que el modelo ha sido empleado en cada uno de ellos. Se encuentra que a pesar de que a través del modelo de guerra afgano se ha pretendido mantener a las tropas estadounidenses alejadas del teatro de operaciones en Siria e Irak, su puesta en marcha podría traducirse en un progresivo involucramiento militar estadounidense en la zona, en el empoderamiento de otros actores locales cuyas agendas e intereses no necesariamente se ajustan a los de Estados Unidos y, en definitiva, en un detrimento para el ya delicado equilibrio regional.
The unconventional wars taking place in Syria and Iraq are characterized by the involvement of a complex network of state and non-state actors that apply asymmetrical warfare tactics in a region deeply divided along religious and ethnic lines. Given that scenario, the Obama administration intervened militarily in those areas applying the warfare model it used in Afghanistan, a strategy which replaces conventional United States ground forces with local allies supported by United States air power and special operations forces. Although there is consensus that each such type of warfare possesses strengths as well as weaknesses, the implications of the latter mode of warfare on regional stability remain debatable.
Through analysis of the status of the conflict in Syria and Iraq as well as of the manner in which the Afghan warfare model has been implemented by the United States administration, this article sets forth implications for regional stability. Based on the foregoing, it is determined that despite the attempt through use of the Afghan model to maintain United States troops outside theaters of operation in Syria and Iraq, their introduction into the area may instead result in progressive United States military involvement as well as in empowerment of local players whose agendas and interests do not coincide with those of the United States, and, in the end, prove detrimental to the delicate regional balance.
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