Criminalidad homicida, capitalismo y democracia
HOMICIDAL CRIME, CAPITALISM, AND DEMOCRACY
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.15446/anpol.v34n102.99932Palabras clave:
Homicidios, impunidad, desigualdad, análisis de componentes principales (es)homicides, impunity, legitimacy, principal component analysis (en)
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En este artículo revisamos el debate acerca de un tipo particular de criminalidad, los homicidios, y me- diante un modelo estadístico de análisis de componentes principales y un agrupamiento de 44 países basado en esos componentes, proporcionamos evidencia acerca de su carácter multicausal. Las variables incluidas en el modelo son, además de la tasa de homicidios, los niveles de impunidad de cada país; los niveles de desigualdad, medidos por el Índice Palma; así como la confianza en la policía y en la justicia, y la percepción de que el gobierno atiende las demandas de sus ciudadanos, como proxies de la legitimidad de las autoridades. El modelo logra dar cuenta de aproximadamente el 80 % de la variación observada. Con base en la discusión acerca de los mecanismos causales que subyacen a esa variación, postulamos que los niveles de criminalidad son en gran parte una función del tipo de capitalismo y de democracia existente en cada sociedad. Este artículo también destaca el hecho de que la discusión acerca de las causas de la violencia se superpone con otras discusiones: una, teórica, acerca de los modelos de la acción social y otra, normativa, acerca de cuál podría ser la forma de organización social más justa.
This article reviews the debate about a particular type of crime—homicides—and, through a statistical model of principal component analysis and a clustering of 44 countries based on these components, provides evidence about its multi-causal nature. The variables included in the model are, in addition to homicide rate, levels of impunity in each country, levels of inequality, measured by the Palma Index, and trust in the police and justice, as well as the perception that the government meets the demands of its citizens, as proxies of the authorities’ legitimacy. The model manages to account for approximately 80% of the observed variation. Based on a discussion about the causal mechanisms underlying this variation, the article concludes that crime levels are largely a function of the type of capitalism and democracy that exist in each society. This article also highlights the fact that the debate about the causes of violence overlaps with other discussions: one theoretical, about models of social action, and other normative, about what form of social organization might be the fairest.
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