La guerra Rusia-Ucrania: ¿un conflicto intratable?

Publicado

2023-12-29

La guerra Rusia-Ucrania: ¿un conflicto intratable?

Russia-Ukraine War: An Intractable Conflict?

Palabras clave:

geopolítica, paz, seguridad, conflicto armado internacional, defensa, derecho internacional humanitario (es)
defense, geopolitics, international armed conflict, International Humanitarian Law, intractability, peace, security (en)

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Jorge Contreras Peralta Benemérita Universidad Autónoma de Puebla https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1746-1068

Resumen (es)
Resumen (en)

Los conflictos armados internacionales en el siglo XXI se han vuelto cada vez más com- plejos en sus fuentes, evolución, tipos de enfrentamientos, escala, gestión y resolución. Este artículo analiza las características de los conflictos armados internacionales intratables con base en el enfoque de la transformación de los conflictos y la aplicación de los modelos de mapeo y curva de los conflictos. Se analizan el contexto, los actores, las causas, los pro- blemas y la dinámica de la guerra en curso entre Rusia y Ucrania para determinar si esta se perfila como un conflicto armado internacional intratable. Sin duda, la guerra entre Rusia y Ucrania es un conflicto armado internacional prolongado, con importantes posibilidades de que se transforme en un conflicto más amplio e intratable, por lo que es fundamental que los actores involucrados busquen alternativas a través de enfoques multifacéticos y diplomáticos para prevenir una escalada mayor y así encontrar soluciones sostenibles que promuevan la paz y la estabilidad en la región.

International armed conflicts in the 21st century have become increasingly complex in their sources, evolution, types of confrontations, scale, management, and resolution. This article analyzes the characteristics of intractable international armed conflicts based on the conflict transformation approach and the application of conflict mapping and curve models. The context, actors, causes, issues, and dynamics of the ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine are examined to determine whether it is shaping up as an intractable international armed conflict. Undoubtedly, the Russia-Ukraine war is a protracted international armed conflict, with significant possibilities of evolving into a broader and intractable conflict. Therefore, it is crucial for the involved parties to seek alternatives through multifaceted and diplomatic approaches to prevent further escalation and find sustainable solutions that pro- mote peace and stability in the region.

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