Publicado

2026-08-02

Analysis of damage prediction models for the design of flexible pavements in Colombiaiseño de pavimentos flexibles en Colombia

Análisis de los modelos de predicción de daño para el diseño de pavimentos flexibles en Colombia

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.15446/dyna.v93n242.125485

Palabras clave:

diseño de pavimentos, modelos de desempeño, ahuellamiento, fatiga, análisis estructural (es)
pavement design, performance models, rutting, fatigue, structural analysis (en)

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Autores/as

Este estudio analizó la respuesta de los modelos de predicción de daño utilizados en el diseño mecánico empírico (ME) de pavimentos flexibles. Los modelos analizados corresponden a los propuestos por el Instituto Norteamericano del Asfalto (INA), Shell y la guía de diseño de pavimentos mecánico empírico(MechanisticEmpirical Pavement Design Guide MEPDG) de AASHTO. Para tal fin, se contempló una estructura típica de pavimento flexible compuesta por una capa asfáltica, material granular (base y subbase) apoyadas sobre una subrasante. Fueron analizaron diferentes espesores de la capa asfáltica con el fin de obtener la respuesta del pavimento. Los resultados demostraron grandes variaciones entre los modelos analizados, obteniendo menores valores de admisibilidad ante el ahuellamiento y agrietamiento por fatiga las metodologías INA y AASHTO (agrietamiento de arriba hacia abajo), respectivamente. Calibraciones locales se deben realizar a fin de seleccionar adecuadamente los modelos para el diseño de pavimentos, teniendo en cuenta condiciones colombianas.

This investigation presents a comparative analysis of damage-prediction models employed in mechanistic-empirical (ME) design methodologies for flexible pavement systems. The models examined encompass those developed by the Asphalt Institute (AI), Shell International, and the American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials' (AASHTO) Mechanistic-Empirical Pavement Design Guide (MEPDG). A representative flexible pavement configuration was evaluated, comprising an asphalt concrete surface layer, unbound granular layers (base and subbase courses), and an underlying subgrade stratum. Parametric analyses incorporating varying asphalt layer thicknesses were conducted to characterize the structural response of the pavement system. The findings reveal substantial disparities among the evaluated models, with the AI and AASHTO methodologies exhibiting reduced tolerance thresholds for rutting and fatigue cracking, respectively, particularly regarding top-down cracking mechanisms. Regional calibration procedures are essential for appropriate model selection in pavement designapplications, accounting for site-specific Colombian environmental, material, and loading conditions.

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Cómo citar

IEEE

[1]
J. G. Bastidas-Martínez, H. A. Rondón-Quintana, y J. C. Ruge-Cárdenas, «Analysis of damage prediction models for the design of flexible pavements in Colombiaiseño de pavimentos flexibles en Colombia», DYNA, vol. 93, n.º 242, pp. 68–76, jul. 2026.

ACM

[1]
Bastidas-Martínez, J.G., Rondón-Quintana, H.A. y Ruge-Cárdenas, J.C. 2026. Analysis of damage prediction models for the design of flexible pavements in Colombiaiseño de pavimentos flexibles en Colombia. DYNA. 93, 242 (jul. 2026), 68–76. DOI:https://doi.org/10.15446/dyna.v93n242.125485.

ACS

(1)
Bastidas-Martínez, J. G.; Rondón-Quintana, H. A.; Ruge-Cárdenas, J. C. Analysis of damage prediction models for the design of flexible pavements in Colombiaiseño de pavimentos flexibles en Colombia. DYNA 2026, 93, 68-76.

APA

Bastidas-Martínez, J. G., Rondón-Quintana, H. A. & Ruge-Cárdenas, J. C. (2026). Analysis of damage prediction models for the design of flexible pavements in Colombiaiseño de pavimentos flexibles en Colombia. DYNA, 93(242), 68–76. https://doi.org/10.15446/dyna.v93n242.125485

ABNT

BASTIDAS-MARTÍNEZ, J. G.; RONDÓN-QUINTANA, H. A.; RUGE-CÁRDENAS, J. C. Analysis of damage prediction models for the design of flexible pavements in Colombiaiseño de pavimentos flexibles en Colombia. DYNA, [S. l.], v. 93, n. 242, p. 68–76, 2026. DOI: 10.15446/dyna.v93n242.125485. Disponível em: https://revistas.unal.edu.co/index.php/dyna/article/view/125485. Acesso em: 10 ago. 2026.

Chicago

Bastidas-Martínez, Juan Gabriel, Hugo Alexander Rondón-Quintana, y Juan Carlos Ruge-Cárdenas. 2026. «Analysis of damage prediction models for the design of flexible pavements in Colombiaiseño de pavimentos flexibles en Colombia». DYNA 93 (242):68-76. https://doi.org/10.15446/dyna.v93n242.125485.

Harvard

Bastidas-Martínez, J. G., Rondón-Quintana, H. A. y Ruge-Cárdenas, J. C. (2026) «Analysis of damage prediction models for the design of flexible pavements in Colombiaiseño de pavimentos flexibles en Colombia», DYNA, 93(242), pp. 68–76. doi: 10.15446/dyna.v93n242.125485.

MLA

Bastidas-Martínez, J. G., H. A. Rondón-Quintana, y J. C. Ruge-Cárdenas. «Analysis of damage prediction models for the design of flexible pavements in Colombiaiseño de pavimentos flexibles en Colombia». DYNA, vol. 93, n.º 242, julio de 2026, pp. 68-76, doi:10.15446/dyna.v93n242.125485.

Turabian

Bastidas-Martínez, Juan Gabriel, Hugo Alexander Rondón-Quintana, y Juan Carlos Ruge-Cárdenas. «Analysis of damage prediction models for the design of flexible pavements in Colombiaiseño de pavimentos flexibles en Colombia». DYNA 93, no. 242 (julio 17, 2026): 68–76. Accedido agosto 10, 2026. https://revistas.unal.edu.co/index.php/dyna/article/view/125485.

Vancouver

1.
Bastidas-Martínez JG, Rondón-Quintana HA, Ruge-Cárdenas JC. Analysis of damage prediction models for the design of flexible pavements in Colombiaiseño de pavimentos flexibles en Colombia. DYNA [Internet]. 17 de julio de 2026 [citado 10 de agosto de 2026];93(242):68-76. Disponible en: https://revistas.unal.edu.co/index.php/dyna/article/view/125485

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