Publicado

2014-09-01

Application of Bayesian techniques for the identification of accident-prone road sections

Aplicación de técnicas Bayesianas en la identificación de tramos viales propensos a accidentes

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.15446/dyna.v81n187.41333

Palabras clave:

Bayesian Method, accident-prone sections, hazard ranking, road safety (en)
Método Bayesiano, tramos propensos a accidentes, ranking de peligrosidad, seguridad vial (es)

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Autores/as

  • Thomas Edison Guerrero-Barbosa Universidad Francisco de Paula Santander
  • Gloria Estefany Amarís-Castro Universidad del Norte Barranquilla
The use of Bayesian techniques for the identification of accident-prone road sections has become very important in recent years. The objective of this investigation consisted of identifying accident-prone road sections in the Municipality of Ocaña (Colombia) using the Bayesian Method (BM); the modeling approach developed involved the creation of a database of accidents that occurred between the years 2007 (January) and 2013 (August) and the application of the methodology on 15 sections of urban road. The final analyses show that the BM is an original and fast tool that is easily implemented, it provides results in which 4 accident-prone or dangerous road sections were identified and ranked them in order of danger, establishing a danger ranking that provides a prioritization for investments and the implementation of preventive and/or corrective policies that will maximize benefits associated with road safety.
El uso de técnicas bayesianas para la identificación de tramos de carretera propensos a accidentes ha llegado a ser muy importante en los últimos años. El objetivo de esta investigación consistió en identificar los tramos de carretera propensos a accidentes en el municipio de Ocaña (Colombia), utilizando el método bayesiano (BM); el enfoque de modelación desarrollado consistió en la conformación de una base de datos de accidentes ocurridos entre los años 2007 (enero) y 2013 (agosto) y la aplicación de la metodología en 15 tramos de carreteras urbanas. Los análisis finales muestran que el BM es una herramienta poderosa y rápida de fácil implementación, que proporciona resultados en los que se identificaron 4 tramos de carretera propensos a los accidentes o peligrosos y los clasificó por orden de peligro, el establecimiento de un ranking de peligro proporciona un orden de prioridades para las inversiones y la aplicación de políticas preventivas y / o correctivas que maximicen los beneficios asociados con la seguridad vial.

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Derechos de autor 2014 DYNA

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