Publicado

2019-01-01

Predictive model of microorganism mesophiles in processed meat products during storage under fluctuating temperatures

Modelo predictivo de microorganismos mesófilos en productos cárnicos procesados durante almacenamiento bajo temperatura variable

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.15446/dyna.v86n208.66777

Palabras clave:

microorganisms mesophiles, multivariate quadratic regression model, processed meat products, the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), fluctuating storage temperature, shelf removal date. (en)
microorganismos mesófilos, regresión cuadrática multivariable, productos cárnicos procesados, error porcentual absoluto medio (MAPE), temperatura variable de almacenamiento, fecha de retiro de anaquel. (es)

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The aim of this investigation was to develop a predictive model of microorganism mesophiles in processed meat products during storage under fluctuating temperatures between 1°C to 7°C to establish the shelf removal date of the products based on mesophile limits established by Colombian Technical Standard NTC 1325 of 2008 for non-canned processed meat products. The variables used in the model were as follows: temperature, storage time and population of microorganisms at the beginning of storage. The S curve of the growth of the microorganisms was approximated by sections using a multivariate quadratic regression equation. The model achieved 91% accuracy for the prediction of the shelf removal date. In terms of practicality, the model offers a simpler alternative to traditional models for the prediction of microorganisms that require a greater amount of parameters and data.
El objetivo de esta investigación fue desarrollar un modelo predictivo de microorganismos mesófilos para productos cárnicos procesados almacenados a temperaturas variables entre 1 °C y 7°C para establecer la fecha de retiro del producto en anaquel en función del límite de microorganismos mesófilos establecido por la NTC 1325 de 2008 para productos cárnicos procesados no enlatados. Las variables usadas en el modelo fueron: temperatura, tiempo de almacenamiento y población de microorganismos mesófilos al inicio del almacenamiento. La curva S de crecimiento de los microorganismos fue aproximada por tramos mediante una ecuación de regresión cuadrática multivariable. El modelo logró una exactitud del 91% en la predicción de la fecha de retiro de anaquel. En términos de practicidad, el modelo nos ofrece una alternativa más simple a los modelos tradicionales de predicción de microorganismos que requieren una mayor cantidad de parámetros y datos.

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Cómo citar

IEEE

[1]
M. J. Herrera-Mejía, A. T. Sarmiento, y L. I. Sotelo-Díaz, «Predictive model of microorganism mesophiles in processed meat products during storage under fluctuating temperatures», DYNA, vol. 86, n.º 208, pp. 46–52, ene. 2019.

ACM

[1]
Herrera-Mejía, M.J., Sarmiento, A.T. y Sotelo-Díaz, L.I. 2019. Predictive model of microorganism mesophiles in processed meat products during storage under fluctuating temperatures. DYNA. 86, 208 (ene. 2019), 46–52. DOI:https://doi.org/10.15446/dyna.v86n208.66777.

ACS

(1)
Herrera-Mejía, M. J.; Sarmiento, A. T.; Sotelo-Díaz, L. I. Predictive model of microorganism mesophiles in processed meat products during storage under fluctuating temperatures. DYNA 2019, 86, 46-52.

APA

Herrera-Mejía, M. J., Sarmiento, A. T. & Sotelo-Díaz, L. I. (2019). Predictive model of microorganism mesophiles in processed meat products during storage under fluctuating temperatures. DYNA, 86(208), 46–52. https://doi.org/10.15446/dyna.v86n208.66777

ABNT

HERRERA-MEJÍA, M. J.; SARMIENTO, A. T.; SOTELO-DÍAZ, L. I. Predictive model of microorganism mesophiles in processed meat products during storage under fluctuating temperatures. DYNA, [S. l.], v. 86, n. 208, p. 46–52, 2019. DOI: 10.15446/dyna.v86n208.66777. Disponível em: https://revistas.unal.edu.co/index.php/dyna/article/view/66777. Acesso em: 16 mar. 2026.

Chicago

Herrera-Mejía, María Juliana, Alfonso Tullio Sarmiento, y Luz Indira Sotelo-Díaz. 2019. «Predictive model of microorganism mesophiles in processed meat products during storage under fluctuating temperatures». DYNA 86 (208):46-52. https://doi.org/10.15446/dyna.v86n208.66777.

Harvard

Herrera-Mejía, M. J., Sarmiento, A. T. y Sotelo-Díaz, L. I. (2019) «Predictive model of microorganism mesophiles in processed meat products during storage under fluctuating temperatures», DYNA, 86(208), pp. 46–52. doi: 10.15446/dyna.v86n208.66777.

MLA

Herrera-Mejía, M. J., A. T. Sarmiento, y L. I. Sotelo-Díaz. «Predictive model of microorganism mesophiles in processed meat products during storage under fluctuating temperatures». DYNA, vol. 86, n.º 208, enero de 2019, pp. 46-52, doi:10.15446/dyna.v86n208.66777.

Turabian

Herrera-Mejía, María Juliana, Alfonso Tullio Sarmiento, y Luz Indira Sotelo-Díaz. «Predictive model of microorganism mesophiles in processed meat products during storage under fluctuating temperatures». DYNA 86, no. 208 (enero 1, 2019): 46–52. Accedido marzo 16, 2026. https://revistas.unal.edu.co/index.php/dyna/article/view/66777.

Vancouver

1.
Herrera-Mejía MJ, Sarmiento AT, Sotelo-Díaz LI. Predictive model of microorganism mesophiles in processed meat products during storage under fluctuating temperatures. DYNA [Internet]. 1 de enero de 2019 [citado 16 de marzo de 2026];86(208):46-52. Disponible en: https://revistas.unal.edu.co/index.php/dyna/article/view/66777

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CrossRef citations2

1. Olja Šovljanski, Lato Pezo, Ana Tomić, Aleksandra Ranitović, Dragoljub Cvetković, Siniša Markov. (2022). Formation of Predictive-Based Models for Monitoring the Microbiological Quality of Beef Meat Processed for Fast-Food Restaurants. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 19(24), p.16727. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph192416727.

2. María Juliana Herrera-Mejía, Alfonso Tullio Sarmiento, Luz Indira Sotelo-Díaz. (2019). Predictive model of microorganism mesophiles in processed meat products during storage under fluctuating temperatures1. DYNA, 86(208), p.46. https://doi.org/10.15446/dyna.v86n208.66777.

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