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Risk analysis by Monte Carlo simulation in underground rock excavation projects
Análisis de riesgo por simulación de Monte Carlo en proyectos de excavación subterránea en roca
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.15446/dyna.v89n221.97628Palabras clave:
mining, tunneling, conceptual design, support (en)soporte, mineria, túnel, diseño conceptual (es)
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Underground excavations are among the most complex engineering works in existence, as they have many variables involved, from the working environment to the methods and equipment adopted for excavation. Historically, preliminary excavation projects have been developed based on empirical methods and qualitative or semi-quantitative classifications of rock mass. Given insufficient information regarding rock mass properties, due to technical limitations related to soundings and their interpretations, there is—from conceptual studies and project executions—great variability in the decisions to be made. Wrong decisions regarding the excavation method, support type, and projections of advances can be highly costly to the enterprise, leading to unplanned or unnecessary expenses and/or risks to human lives. Thus, this study proposes the use of quantitative Risk Analysis by Monte Carlo Simulations to determine the most likely support class to be applied in an underground excavation project.
Las excavaciones subterráneas se encuentran entre las obras de ingeniería más complejas que existen, ya que involucran muchas variables, desde el entorno de trabajo hasta los métodos y equipos adoptados para la excavación. Históricamente, los proyectos preliminares de excavación se han desarrollado con base en métodos empíricos y clasificaciones cualitativas o semicuantitativas de macizos rocosos. Dada la información insuficiente sobre las propiedades del macizo rocoso, debido a las limitaciones técnicas relacionadas con los sondeos y sus interpretaciones, existe, desde los estudios conceptuales y la ejecución de un proyecto, una gran variabilidad en las decisiones a tomar. Las decisiones incorrectas con respecto al método de excavación, el tipo de soporte y los estimados de avances pueden resultar muy costosos para la empresa, lo que genera gastos y/o riesgos para las vidas humanas no planificados o innecesarios. Por lo tanto, este estudio propone el uso de Análisis de Riesgo cuantitativo por Simulaciones de Monte Carlo para determinar la clase de soporte más probable que se aplicará en un proyecto de excavación subterránea.
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