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The role of natural gas in today’s energy transition
El rol del gas natural en la transición energética actual
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.15446/dyna.v89n221.99347Palabras clave:
Cambio Climático; Gas Natural; Transición Energética; Método Delphi; Energías Renovables (es)Climate Change; Natural Gas; Energy Transition; Delphi method; Renewable energies (en)
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La matriz energética mundial está basada en combustibles fósiles que emiten enormes cantidades de GEI causantes del cambio climático, con graves consecuencias sobre nuestro planeta. En las últimas dos décadas, las energías renovables han aumentado su participación para mitigar los efectos sobre el clima. En este trabajo, se evalúa el rol del gas natural en la transición energética, considerando políticas energéticas e innovaciones tecnológicas. Fue aplicado el método de Delphi contando con expertos en energía y ambiente. Los resultados muestran tres factores clave: gas natural como combustible fósil más amigable con el ambiente, energías renovables no podrán satisfacer 100% de la demanda y alta variabilidad del suministro eléctrico basado en energías eólica y solar. Además, se visualizan dos oportunidades relevantes: crecimiento del consumo de energía y expansión del negocio del GNL. Estos hallazgos permiten señalar que el gas natural fungirá como combustible-puente en la transición hacia energías más limpias.
The global energy mix is based on fossil fuels that emit enormous amounts of GHGs causing climate change and serious consequences on our planet. In the last two decades, renewable energies have increased their share for mitigating effects on the climate. In this work, the role of natural gas in the energy transition is evaluated, considering energy policies and technological innovations. The Delphi method was applied using experts in energy and environment. Results show three key factors: natural gas as a more environmentally friendly fossil fuel, renewable energies will not be able to satisfy 100% of the demand, and the high variability of the electricity supply based on new clean sources: wind and solar. In addition, two relevant opportunities are seen: growth in energy consumption and expansion of the LNG business. These findings indicate natural gas will act as a bridge fuel in the transition to cleaner energies.
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