Published

2025-01-01

Forecast Quality with Information Uncertainty. Balancing and Estimation from Propensity Scores

Predicciones con incertidumbre informacional. Balance y estimación a partir de puntajes de propensión

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.15446/rce.v48n1.112678

Keywords:

Error consistency, Propensity scores, Risk, Value ambiguity (en)
Ambigüedad de valor, Consistencia del error, Riesgo., Puntuaciones de propensión (es)

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This study investigates whether analysts provide informative forecasts for stocks issued by _rms with greater information uncertainty. As _rm-specific information uncertainty is not directly observable, the research highlights the role of analysts' forecasts and reports in offering valuable insights to investors. It also investigates whether forecast quality is sufficiently captured by forecast bias. The findings indicate that forecast quality tends to be lower for _rms with greater information uncertainty and that forecast bias alone does not fully reflect the informational content of analysts' forecasts. Overall, the results suggest that analysts' forecasts possess positive informational value.

Este estudio investiga si los analistas proporcionan pronósticos informativos para las acciones emitidas por empresas con mayor incertidumbre de información. Dado que la incertidumbre de información específica de la empresa no es directamente observable, el artículo destaca el papel de los pronósticos y los informes de los analistas en ofrecer información valiosa a los inversores. También examina si la calidad de los pronósticos se captura adecuadamente mediante el sesgo de los pronósticos. Los resultados indican que la calidad de los pronósticos tiende a ser menor para las empresas con mayor incertidumbre de información y que el sesgo de los pronósticos por sí solo no refleja completamente el contenido informativo de estos. En conjunto, los resultados sugieren que los pronósticos de los analistas poseen un valor informativo positivo.

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How to Cite

APA

Astaiza Gomez, J. G. (2025). Forecast Quality with Information Uncertainty. Balancing and Estimation from Propensity Scores. Revista Colombiana de Estadística, 48(1), 157–175. https://doi.org/10.15446/rce.v48n1.112678

ACM

[1]
Astaiza Gomez, J.G. 2025. Forecast Quality with Information Uncertainty. Balancing and Estimation from Propensity Scores. Revista Colombiana de Estadística. 48, 1 (Jan. 2025), 157–175. DOI:https://doi.org/10.15446/rce.v48n1.112678.

ACS

(1)
Astaiza Gomez, J. G. Forecast Quality with Information Uncertainty. Balancing and Estimation from Propensity Scores. Rev. colomb. estad. 2025, 48, 157-175.

ABNT

ASTAIZA GOMEZ, J. G. Forecast Quality with Information Uncertainty. Balancing and Estimation from Propensity Scores. Revista Colombiana de Estadística, [S. l.], v. 48, n. 1, p. 157–175, 2025. DOI: 10.15446/rce.v48n1.112678. Disponível em: https://revistas.unal.edu.co/index.php/estad/article/view/112678. Acesso em: 10 nov. 2025.

Chicago

Astaiza Gomez, Jose Gabriel. 2025. “Forecast Quality with Information Uncertainty. Balancing and Estimation from Propensity Scores”. Revista Colombiana De Estadística 48 (1):157-75. https://doi.org/10.15446/rce.v48n1.112678.

Harvard

Astaiza Gomez, J. G. (2025) “Forecast Quality with Information Uncertainty. Balancing and Estimation from Propensity Scores”, Revista Colombiana de Estadística, 48(1), pp. 157–175. doi: 10.15446/rce.v48n1.112678.

IEEE

[1]
J. G. Astaiza Gomez, “Forecast Quality with Information Uncertainty. Balancing and Estimation from Propensity Scores”, Rev. colomb. estad., vol. 48, no. 1, pp. 157–175, Jan. 2025.

MLA

Astaiza Gomez, J. G. “Forecast Quality with Information Uncertainty. Balancing and Estimation from Propensity Scores”. Revista Colombiana de Estadística, vol. 48, no. 1, Jan. 2025, pp. 157-75, doi:10.15446/rce.v48n1.112678.

Turabian

Astaiza Gomez, Jose Gabriel. “Forecast Quality with Information Uncertainty. Balancing and Estimation from Propensity Scores”. Revista Colombiana de Estadística 48, no. 1 (January 21, 2025): 157–175. Accessed November 10, 2025. https://revistas.unal.edu.co/index.php/estad/article/view/112678.

Vancouver

1.
Astaiza Gomez JG. Forecast Quality with Information Uncertainty. Balancing and Estimation from Propensity Scores. Rev. colomb. estad. [Internet]. 2025 Jan. 21 [cited 2025 Nov. 10];48(1):157-75. Available from: https://revistas.unal.edu.co/index.php/estad/article/view/112678

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