UN MODELO PROBABILÍSTICO PARA LA MORTALIDAD EN LA INFANCIA EN UNA FAMILIA

A PROBABILITY MODEL FOR THE CHILD MORTALITY IN A FAMILY

Este documento presenta, bajo el supuesto de un modelo geométrico de desplazamiento fijo, patrones de distribución de las familias, de acuerdo con el número de defunciones de sus hijos menores de cinco años. El modelo emplea diferentes parámetros relacionados con la mortalidad en la infancia en una familia, estimada con el método de momentos y de máxima verosimilitud. Los modelos propuestos ajustan los datos observados, mostrando mejor aproximación a la encuesta de área y describe algunas conclusiones vitales.

This paper proposed, under assumptions of inflated type fixed displaced geometric model, the distribution pattern of families according to number of child deaths within the first five years of life. The proposed model involves several parameters related to child mortality in a family, which is estimated with Method of Moments and Maximum Likelihood Estimation techniques. The proposed models fitted the observed data showing a better approximation at the survey area and draw some vital conclusions.

A Probability Model for the Child Mortality in a Family Un modelo probabilístico para la mortalidad en la infancia en una familia HIMANSHU PANDEY1, JAI KISHUN2

1Gorakhpur University, Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Gorakhpur, India. Professor. Email: himanshupandey@is.iiita.ac.in 
2Gorakhpur University, Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Gorakhpur, India. Professor email Email: jaikishan.stat@gmail.com 

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Abstract

This paper proposed, under assumptions of inflated type fixed displaced geometric model, the distribution pattern of families according to number of child deaths within the first five years of life. The proposed model involves several parameters related to child mortality in a family, which is estimated with Method of Moments and Maximum Likelihood Estimation techniques. The proposed models fitted the observed data showing a better approximation at the survey area and draw some vital conclusions.

Key words: F distribution, G-estimation, M-estimation, t-distribution, Mortality, Death, Contraception, Probability model.

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Resumen

Este documento presenta, bajo el supuesto de un modelo geométrico de desplazamiento fijo, patrones de distribución de las familias, de acuerdo con el número de defunciones de sus hijos menores de cinco años. El modelo emplea diferentes parámetros relacionados con la mortalidad en la infancia en una familia, estimada con el método de momentos y de máxima verosimilitud. Los modelos propuestos ajustan los datos observados, mostrando mejor aproximación a la encuesta de área y describe algunas conclusiones vitales.

Palabras clave: distribución F, estimación G, estimación M, Distribución t, mortalidad, anticoncepción, modelos de probabilidad.

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Texto completo disponible en PDF

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References

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12. Pathak, K. B., Pandey, A. & Mishra, U. S. (1991), 'On Estimating current Levels of Fertility and Child Mortality from the Data on Open Birth Interval and Survival Status of the last Child', Janasamkhya 9(1), 15-24.

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[Recibido en julio de 2009. Aceptado en diciembre de 2009]

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Este artículo se puede citar en LaTeX utilizando la siguiente referencia bibliográfica de BibTeX:

@ARTICLE{RCEv33n1a01, 
    AUTHOR  = {Pandey, Himanshu and Kishun, Jai}, 
    TITLE   = {{A Probability Model for the Child Mortality in a Family}}, 
    JOURNAL = {Revista Colombiana de Estadística}, 
    YEAR    = {2010}, 
    volume  = {33}, 
    number  = {1}, 
    pages   = {1-11} 
}