Correo Electrónico
DNINFOA - SIA
Bibliotecas
Convocatorias
Identidad U.N.
Published
Financial analysis of potential Pinus patula plantations in Antioquia, Colombia
Análisis financiero de potenciales plantaciones de Pinus patula en Antioquia, Colombia
Keywords:
Land expectation value, Rate of return, Stumpage price, Timberland investments (en)Valor económico del suelo, Tasa de retorno, Precio en pie, Inversiones forestales (es)
The establishment of commercial forest plantations requires the selection of sites where reasonable profitability can be attained. A financial analysis was made for the identification of the most suitable areas for the establishment of new Pinus patula plantations in the central region of Antioquia, Colombia. The analysis was performed assuming basic silvicultural treatments at the establishment but no management during the entire rotation period. A volume yield data at the stand level was obtained from a previously fitted model that uses biophysical variables and stand density as predictors. The estimated stand volume, a detailed cash flow, and a derived stumpage price were combined to perform a financial analysis. The Land Expectation Value (LEV) and Internal Rate of Return (IRR) at the optimal rotation age, along with their spatial variation, were calculated in this study. Results suggest that the estimated volume and the current stumpage price are not sufficient to guarantee reasonable profitability for new timberland investments. While the LEV was negative, the IRR was in the range 4.1±1.5%, which is less than the discount rate of 6.8% used in the financial analysis. However, a positive LEV and an IRR at 8% would be achieved if forest productivity increases by 20% because of silvicultural practices or costs reduction in a similar proportion (obtaining IRRs up to 8.4%). Moreover, if the government provide subsidies, the IRR would increase up to 10.3% (without requiring an increase in productivity or a decrease in costs) on sites with high growth potential (mean annual increment greater than 16 m3 ha-1 year-1), and close to the mills (less than 45 km radii).
El establecimiento de plantaciones forestales comerciales requiere seleccionar sitios que garanticen una rentabilidad razonable para inversiones forestales. Se realizó un análisis financiero con el fin de identificar las áreas con mejor aptitud para el establecimiento de nuevas plantaciones de Pinus patula en la zona central de Antioquia, Colombia. El análisis se realizó asumiendo tratamientos silviculturales básicos en el establecimiento, pero ningún manejo durante el período de rotación. Información de rendimiento forestal en volumen a nivel de rodal se obtuvo de un modelo previamente ajustado, el cual depende de variables biofísicas y de la densidad de rodal. El volumen estimado a nivel de rodal, un flujo de caja detallado, y el precio de la madera en pie, se usaron en el análisis financiero. Se calcularon como criterios de bondad de inversión el Valor Económico del Suelo (VES) y la Tasa Interna de Retorno (TIR) a la edad óptima de rotación, así como su variación espacial. Los resultados sugieren que el volumen estimado de madera y los actuales precios no son lo suficientemente altos para garantizar una rentabilidad razonable para el establecimiento de nuevas plantaciones. Mientras el VES estimado fue negativo, la TIR encontrada se ubicó en el rango 4,1±1,5%, la cual es menor a la tasa de descuento de 6,8% usada en el análisis financiero. No obstante, valores positivos de VES pueden alcanzarse si se realizaran tratamientos silviculturales que conlleven a un aumento de la productividad forestal de 20%, o a una reducción de costos de la misma magnitud, alcanzando una TIR de hasta 8,4%. En un escenario de subsidios a la reforestación proporcionados por el gobierno, la TIR podría incrementar hasta 10,3%, sin requerir aumentos en la productividad o disminución de los costos, en sitios con alto potencial de crecimiento (incremento medio anual mayor a 16 m3 ha-1 año-1), y localizados a un radio de 45 km de los centros de transformación.
Downloads
References
Amacher GS, Ollikainen M and Koskela E. 2009. Economics of forest resources. Mit Press, Cambridge. 424 p.
Brown S and Lugo AE. 1982. The storage and production of organic matter in tropical forests and their role in the global carbon cycle. Biotropica. 14(3): 161–187. doi: 10.2307/2388024
Bussoni A and Cabris J. 2010. A financial evaluation of two contrasting silvicultural systems applicable to Pinus taeda grown in north-east Uruguay. Southern Forests 72(3): 163–171. doi: 10.2989/20702620.2010.547268
CIIEN-Centro de Investigación e Innovación en Energía. 2011. Generación de energía eléctrica mediante gasificación de madera proveniente de plantaciones forestales. Proyecto N₀.13. Convenio de Alianza Estratégica CIIEN N₀. 2999083504 (Documento sin publicar)
Chang SJ. 1984. Determination of the optimal rotation age: a theoretical analysis. Forest Ecology and Management 8(2): 137–147. doi: 10.1016/0378-1127(84)90031-8
Clutter JL, Fortson JC, Pienaar LV, Brister GH and Bailey RL. 1983. Timber management: a quantitative approach. John Wiley & Sons, Inc., New York. 307 p.
Congreso de la República de Colombia. 2016. Ley 1819 del 29 de diciembre de 2016:121,122.
Cubbage F, Mac Donagh P, Júnior JS, Rubilar R, Donoso P, Ferreira A, Hoeflich V, Olmos VM, Ferreira G, Balmelli G, Siry J, Báez MN and Alvarez J. 2007. Timber investment returns for selected plantations and native forests in South America and the Southern United States. New Forests 33(3): 237-255. doi: 10.1007/s11056-006-9025-4
Cubbage F, Koesbandana S, Mac Donagh P, Rubilar R, Balmelli G, Olmos VM, De La Torre R, Murara M, Hoeflich VA, Kotze H and Gonzalez R, Carrero O, Frey G, Adams T, Turner J, Lord R, Huang J, MacIntyre C, McGinley K, Abt R and Phillips R. 2010. Global timber investments, wood costs, regulation, and risk. Biomass and bioenergy 34(12): 1667-1678.
FAO. 2018. The State of The World’s Forests - Forest Pathways to Sustainable Development. In: Policy Support and Governance, http://www.fao.org/policy-support/resources/resources-details/en/c/1144279/ Accessed: June 2019.
Farr TG, Rosen PA, Caro E, Crippen R, Duren R, Hensley S, Kobrick M, Paller M, Rodriguez E, Roth L, Seal D, Shaffer S, Shimada J, Umland J, Werner M, Oskin M, Burbank D and Alsdorf D. 2008. The Shuttle Radar Topography Mission. Reviews of geophysics 45(2): RG2004. doi: 10.1029/2005RG000183
Fick SE and RJ Hijmans. 2017. WorldClim 2: new 1-km spatial resolution climate surfaces for global land areas. International Journal of Climatology 37 (12): 4302-4315. doi: 10.1002/joc.5086
Giudice R, Soares-Filho BS, Merry F, Rodrigues HO and Bowman M. 2012. Timber concessions in Madre de Dios: Are they a good deal? Ecological Economics 77: 158-165.doi: 10.1016/j.ecolecon.2012.02.024
Gutiérrez VH, Zapata M, Sierra C, Laguado W and Santacruz A. 2006. Maximizing the profitability of forestry projects under the Clean Development Mechanism using a forest management optimization model. Forest Ecology and Management 226(1-3): 341-350. doi: 10.1016/j.foreco.2006.02.002
Hengl T, de Jesus JM, MacMillan RA, Batjes NH, Heuvelink GBM, Ribeiro E, Samuel-Rosa A, Kempen B, Leenaars JGB, Walsh MG and Gonzalez MR. 2014. SoilGrids1km—global soil information based on automated mapping. PloS One 9(8): 105992. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0105992
López J, de la Torre R and Cubbage F. 2010. Effect of land prices, transportation costs, and site productivity on timber investment returns for pine plantations in Colombia. New Forests 39(3): 313–328. doi: 10.1007/s11056-009-9173-4
Mendell B and Sydor T. 2006. Estimating discount rates for timberland investments in Colombia. Forisk Consulting LLC.
Niskanen A. 1998. Financial and economic profitability of reforestation in Thailand. Forest Ecology and Management 104(1–3): 57–68. doi: 10.1016/S0378-1127(97)00263-6
Perry JP. 1991. The pines of Mexico and Central America. Timber Press, Inc., Portland. 231 p.
PROFOR. 2017. Situación actual y potencial de fomento de plantaciones forestales con fines comerciales en Colombia. In Profor, https://www.profor.info/sites/profor.info/files/Informe Final - Plantaciones Comerciales en Colombia_1.pdf 172 p. Accessed: January 2019.
R Core Team. 2018. R: A language and environment for statistical computing. R Foundation for Statistical Computing. Vienna, Austria.
Restrepo HI, Orrego SA, del Valle JI and Salazar JC. 2012. Rendimiento, turno óptimo forestal y rentabilidad de plantaciones forestales de Tectona grandis y Pinus patula en Colombia. Interciencia 37(1): 14-29.
Restrepo HI and Orrego SA. 2015. A comprehensive analysis of teak plantation investment in Colombia. Forest Policy and Economics 57: 31–37. doi: 10.1016/j.forpol.2015.05.001.
Restrepo HI, Orrego SA, Salazar-Uribe JC, Bullock BP and Montes CR. 2019. Using Biophysical Variables and Stand Density to Estimate Growth and Yield of Pinus patula in Antioquia, Colombia. Open Journal of Forestry 9(3): 195-213. doi: 10.4236/ojf.2019.93010
Restrepo HI, Mei B and Bullock B. 2020. Long-term timber contracts in the southeastern U.S.: Updating the primer valuation framework. In: International Society of Forest Resource Economics (ISFRE) 2019 Annual Meeting. The Ohio State University, Columbus.
Samuelson PA. 1976. Economics of forestry in an evolving society. Economic Inquiry 14(4): 466–492. doi: 10.1111/j.1465-7295.1976.tb00437.x
Stone SW. 1998. Using a geographic information system for applied policy analysis: the case of logging in the Eastern Amazon. Ecological Economics 27(1): 43–61. doi: 10.1016/S0921-8009(97)00130-4
TimberMart-South. 2019. A Brief, Easy to Read, Quarterly Report of the Market prices for Timber Products of the Southeast. 4th quarter 2019. The Journal of Southern Timber Prices 44(4).
UPRA - Unidad de Planificación Rural Agropecuaria. 2015. Zonificación para plantaciones forestales con fines comerciales. Ministerio de Agricultura y Desarrollo Rural. 255 p. http://bibliotecadigital.agronet.gov.co/handle/11438/8496
UPRA - Unidad de Planificación Rural Agropecuaria. 2018. Formulación y ajuste de una metodología general para la zonificación de plantaciones forestales con fines comerciales que direccione y oriente la inversión del sector agropecuario. Bogotá D.C. 15 p. https://www.upra.gov.co/documents/10184/107589/5.22++Formulaci%C3%B3n+y+ajuste+de+una+metodolog%C3%ADa+general.pdf/2284e8f2-def1-4483-bf59-75ca4146df88
Yanhui F. 2016. FinCal: Time Value of Money, Time Series Analysis and Computational Finance. R package version 0.6.3. In CRAN R project, https://CRAN.R-project.org/package=FinCal Accessed: August 2018.
License
Copyright (c) 2020 Revista Facultad Nacional de Agronomía Medellín
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.
The journal allows the author(s) to maintain the exploitation rights (copyright) of their articles without restrictions. The author(s) accept the distribution of their articles on the web and in paper support (25 copies per issue) under open access at local, regional, and international levels. The full paper will be included and disseminated through the Portal of Journals and Institutional Repository of the Universidad Nacional de Colombia, and in all the specialized databases that the journal considers pertinent for its indexation, to provide visibility and positioning to the article. All articles must comply with Colombian and international legislation, related to copyright.
Author Commitments
The author(s) undertake to assign the rights of printing and reprinting of the material published to the journal Revista Facultad Nacional de Agronomía Medellín. Any quotation of the articles published in the journal should be made given the respective credits to the journal and its content. In case content duplication of the journal or its partial or total publication in another language, there must be written permission of the Director.
Content Responsibility
The Faculty of Agricultural Sciences and the journal are not necessarily responsible or in solidarity with the concepts issued in the published articles, whose responsibility will be entirely the author or the authors.
