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Deuda, poder y ciclos: un modelo Norte-Sur de deuda y distribución (NSDD)
DEBT, POWER AND CYCLES: A NORTH-SOUTH MODEL OF DEBT AND DISTRIBUTION (NSDD)
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.15446/cuad.econ.v43n92.100332Palabras clave:
Modelos Norte-Sur, Deuda externa, Ciclos distributivos, Estructuralismo, Dependencia (es)North-South models, Foreign debt, Distributive cycles, Structuralism, Dependency (en)
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Este artículo presenta un modelo Norte-Sur de Deuda y Distribución (NSDD) que combina la dinámica de la deuda externa del Sur con ciclos distributivos simultáneos en ambas regiones. El modelo incluye intuiciones estructurales planteadas por Dutt (1989, 1990), dinámicas cíclicas del modelo de Goodwin (1967), y restricciones en la balanza de pagos del Sur. El modelo estudia la estabilidad de la deuda externa sureña y su simulación numérica brinda varias interpretaciones de economía política, como la posibilidad de que una elevada tasa de interés sobre la deuda externa puede empeorar los ciclos distributivos en perjuicio de los trabajadores del Sur.
This paper presents a North-South model of Debt and Distribution (NSDD) that combines the dynamics of the southern foreign debt with the effects of simultaneous distributive cycles coming from both the North and the South. The model includes structural insights from Dutt (1989, 1990), cyclical dynamics from Goodwin (1967), and constraints for the southern balance of payments. This NSDD model studies the stability of the southern foreign debt, and its numerical simulation brings multiple political economy implications. For instance, when the southern debt has a higher interest rate, the distributive cycle deteriorates against southern workers.
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