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Expectativas racionales, ergodicidad y expectativas sociales
Rational expectations, ergodicity and social expectations
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.15446/cuad.econ.v43n92.106494Palabras clave:
incertidumbre, expectativas racionales, ergodicidad, sistemas complejos (es)uncertainty, rational expectations, ergodicity, complex systems (en)
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En el presente artículo se crítica la teoría de las expectativas racionales. Se destaca que Knight y Keynes, al distinguir entre riesgo e incertidumbre, propusieron una avenida de investigación completamente diferente. El objetivo es demostrar cómo la falta de comprensión del concepto de ergodicidad y el uso arbitrario de la palabra por parte de economistas –especialmente de la escuela poskeynesiana– desorientó la crítica al enfoque probabilístico de la corriente principal y privó a la teoría económica de los frutos que se podrían haber obtenido siguiendo el camino planteado por Keynes y Knight. Se propone retomar este camino desde la perspectiva de los sistemas adaptativos complejos.
The theory of rational expectations is critiqued. It is noted that Knight and Keynes, by distinguishing between risk and uncertainty, proposed an entirely different avenue of inquiry. It demonstrates how the lack of understanding of the concept of ergodicity and the arbitrary use of the word by economists –especially from the Post Keynesian school– disoriented the critique of the Mainstream probabilistic approach and deprived economic theory of the fruits that could have been obtained by following the path proposed by Keynes and Knight. It is proposed to resume this path based on the perspective of complex adaptive systems.
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