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Efecto de remesas de trabajadores sobre reservas internacionales, crecimiento económico e índice de tipo de cambio real en Honduras
Effect of workers' remittances on international reserves, economic growth and the real exchange rate index in Honduras
Efeito de remessas de trabalhadores sobre reservas internacionais, crescimento econômico e índice de tipo de câmbio real em Honduras
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.15446/cuad.econ.v39n81.76893Palabras clave:
remesas, IMAE, reservas internacionales, Itcer, VAR (es)Remittances, IMAE, international reserves, Itcer, VAR (en)
remessas, IMAE, reservas internacionais, Itcer, VAR (pt)
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El estudio analiza el efecto de las remesas internacionales en Honduras sobre el índice mensual de actividad económica (IMAE) como una medida aproximada del crecimiento económico, las reservas internacionales y el índice de tipo de cambio efectivo real (Itcer). Con datos de series temporales con periodicidad mensual de diciembre de 2001 a diciembre de 2016, se formula un modelo del tipo vector autorregresivo (VAR) y se presentan resultados con figuras de la función impulso-respuesta (IFR). Los hallazgos muestran respuesta negativa del IMAE, Itcer y positiva de las reservas internacionales a mediano plazo.
The study analyses the effect of international remittances in Honduras on the Monthly Economic Activity Index (IMAE) as a proxy measure of economic growth, international reserves and the Effective Real Exchange Rate Index (Itcer). Using data from time series with monthly periodicity from December 2001 to December 2016, the model of Vector Autoregressive (VAR) is formulated and results are presented in the form graphs of the Impulse-Response Function (IRF). The finding shows negative responses from IMAE and Itcer and a positive response from international reserves in the medium term.
O estudo analisa o efeito das remessas internacionais em Honduras sobre o índice mensal de atividade econômica (IMAE) como uma medida aproximada do crescimento econômico, as reservas internacionais e o índice de tipo de cambio efetivo real (Itcer). Com dados de séries temporárias com periodicidade mensal de dezembro de 2001 a dezembro de 2016, se formula um modelo do tipo vector auto regressivo (VAR) se apresentam resultados com figuras da função impulso-resposta (IFR). Estes descobrimentos mostram resposta negativa do IMAE, Itcer positiva das reservas internacionais a médio prazo.
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1. Rene Santos. (2023). Efecto de las remesas en el PIB y el déficit comercial en Honduras. Lecturas de Economía, (99), p.111. https://doi.org/10.17533/udea.le.n99a350324.
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