Correo Electrónico
DNINFOA - SIA
Bibliotecas
Convocatorias
Identidad U.N.
Publicado
¿El tratado de libre comercio entre Colombia y Estados Unidos incentivó el comercio bilateral?
Did the FTA between Colombia & the USA promote bilateral trade?
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.15446/cuad.econ.v41n86.84973Palabras clave:
política arancelaria; libre comercio; modelo gravitacional; TLC (es)Tariff policy; Free trade; gravity model; FTA (en)
Los efectos sobre el comercio bilateral entre Colombia y Estados Unidos por el tratado de libre comercio (TLC) firmado entre las partes son calculados mediante el Modelo Gravitacional de Comercio, el cual determinó que el comercio entre ambos países no ha sido tan dinámico como estimaron estudios previos. Adicionalmente, un análisis ex post es realizado para exponer los efectos de la política arancelaria en el marco del TLC y cuantificar la creación y desviación de comercio sobre los artículos bajo cuotas arancelarias. El análisis contiene cuatro secciones: revisión de literatura, explicación del modelo usado, resultados y conclusiones.
The effects on bilateral trade between Colombia and USA brought about by the Free Trade Agreement (FTA) signed by both parties are measured by means of the Gravity Model of Commerce, which determined that the trade flows between the two countries have not been as dynamic as previous studies had estimated. Additionally, an ex-post analysis is carried out to set forth the effects of the tariff policy within the framework of the FTA and also to quantify the creation and diversion of trade among articles under tariff quotas. This analysis has four sections: literature review, explanation of the model employed, results, and conclusions.
Referencias
Abedini, J., & Peridy, N. (2008). The Greater Arab Free Trade Area (GAFTA): An estimation of its trade effects. Journal of Economic Integration, 23, 848-872.
Alonso, J. (2006). Naturaleza económica de la lengua. Instituto Complutense de Estudios Internacionales (ICEI). http://eprints.ucm.es/9671/1/DT02-06.pdf.
Anderson, J. (1979). A theoretical foundation for the gravity equation. The American Economic Review, 69, 106-16.
Armington, P. (1969). A theory of demand for products distinguished by place of production. Staff Papers - International Monetary Fund, 16(1), 159-178.
Baier, S., & Bergstrad, J. (2006). Do free trade agreements actually increase members’ international trade? Journal of International Economics, 71(1), 72-95.
Balassa, B. (1967). Trade creation and trade diversion in the European Common Market. The Economic Journal, 77, 1-21.
Balassa, B. (1980). Teoría de la integración económica. En J. Laris Casilla (ed.), Movimiento de mercancías: aspectos relativos al consumo y albienestar (pp. 23-87), Las fronteras nacionales y el crecimiento económico (pp. 111-157). Uteha.
Baum, C. (2006). Working with economic and financial data in Stata. In Stata (ed.), An introduction to modern econometrics using Stata (p. 47). Stata Press.
Banco Mundial. (2017). Indicadores de desarrollo mundial. https://databank.bancomundial.org/source/world-development-indicators
Banco Mundial. (2018). Índice de desempeño logístico. https://datos.bancomundial.org/indicator/LP.LPI.OVRL.XQ
Bolívar, L., Cruz, N., & Pinto, A. (2015). Modelo gravitacional del comercio internacional colombiano, 1991-2012. Economía & Región, 9(1), 245-270.
Brun, J., Carrère, C., Guillaumont, P., & de Melo, J. (2005). Has distance died? Evidence from a panel gravity model. World Bank Economic Review, 19, 99-120.
Cárdenas, M., & García, C. (2005). El modelo gravitacional y el TLC entre Colombia y Estados Unidos. Coyuntura Económica, 35(1), 47-72.
Carrère, C. (2006). Revisiting the effects of regional trade agreements on trade flows with proper specification of the gravity model. European Economic Review, 50, 223-47.
De Melo, J. (1983). An ex-ante model for estimating the impact on trade flows of a country’s accession to a customs union (Development research Department, Discussion Paper DRD67). The World Bank.
Departamento de Agricultura a la OMC (2016). https://docs.wto.org/dol2fe/Pages/FE_Search/FE_S_S009-DP.aspx?language=E&CatalogueIdList=251395,251392,249317,248816,244970,244835,241755,240535,239223,239230&CurrentCatalogueIdIndex=2&FullTextHash=&HasEnglishRecord=True&HasFrenchRecord=True&HasSpanishRecord=True
Dutt, P., Mihov, I., & Van Zandt, T. (2013). The effect of WTO on the extensive and intensive margins of trade. Journal of International Economics, 91(2), 204-219.
Egger, P. (2003). An econometric view on the estimation of gravity models and calculation of trade potentials. The World Economy, 25(2). https://www.doi.org/10.1111/1467-9701.00432
Eicher, T., & Henn, C. (2011), In search of WTO trade effects: Preferential trade agreements promote trade strongly, but unevenly. Journal of International Economics, 83(2), 137-153.
Esteve-Pérez, S., Gil-Pareja, S., & Llorca-Vivero, R. (2019). Does the GATT/WTO promote trade? After all, rose was right. Review of World Economics, 156(2), 377-405.
Feenstra, R., & Taylor, A. (2014). Trade in the global economy. En C. Woods (ed.). International Economics (pp. 3-23). Worth Publishers.
Frankel, J., Stein, E., & Wei, S. (1996). The gravity model of bilateral trade. En Ch. Lowey (ed.). Regional trading blocs in the world economic system (pp. 49-76). Peterson Institute for International Economics.
Gil-Pareja, S., Llorca-Vivero, R., & Martínez-Serrano, J. A. (2016). A re-examination of the effect of GATT/WTO on trade. Open Economies Review, 27(3), 561-584.
Greenaway, D., & Milner, C. (2003). Regionalism and gravity. Scottish Journal of Political Economy, 49(5), 574-585. https://www.doi.org/10.1111/1467-9485.00249
Hay, C. (2004). Common trajectories, variable paces, divergent outcomes? Models of European capitalism under conditions of complex economic interdependence. Review of International Political Economy, 11(2), 231-262, https://www.doi.org/10.1080/09692290420001672796
Heckscher, E. (1919). The effect of foreign trade on the distribution of income. Ekonomisk Tidskrift, 21, 497-512.
Isard, W. (1954). Location theory and trade theory: Short-run analysis. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 68(2), 305-320. https://doi.org/10.2307/1884452
Kamil, H., & Ons, A. (2003). Formación de bloques comerciales regionales y determinantes del comercio bilateral: el caso del Mercosur (Serie Documentos de Trabajo DT/2). Instituto de Economía. http://www.ciu.com.uy/innovaportal/file/14312/1/98_-kamilons_-_metodologia.pdf
Kepaptsoglou, K., Karlaftis, M., & Tsamboulas, D. (2010). The gravity model specification for modeling international trade flows and free trade agreement effects: E 10-year review of empirical studies. The Open Economics Journal, 3, 1-13. https://www.doi.org/10.2174/1874919401003010001
Krugman, P., & Obstfeld, M. (2006). International trade policy. En D. Clinton (ed.), International economics: Theory and policy (7th ed., pp. 187-277). Addison-Wisley. http://fad.unsa.edu.pe/bancayseguros/wpcontent/uploads/sites/4/2019/03/Krugman-y-Obstfeld-2006-Economia-Internacional.pdf
Lipsey, R. (1960). The theory of customs unions: A general survey. The Economic Journal, 70(279), 496-513.
Leontief, W. (1954). Domestic production and foreign trade: The American capital position re-examined. Econ. Internazionale, 7, 3-32. Reprinted in Readings in International Economics, editado por Richard E. Caves & Harry G. Johnson. Homewood, Ill.: Irwin, 1968.
Martínez-Giralt, X. (2008). Teoría del equilibrio general. En Microeconomía avanzada (pp. 125-216). Universitat Autónoma de Barcelona.
Martin, W., & Pham, C. (2019). Estimating the gravity model when zero trade flows are frequent and economically determined. Applied Economics, 52(10), 1-14.
OCDE. (2019). Development in agricultural policy and support by country. En OCDE (eds.), Agricultural policy monitoring and evaluation 2019 (pp. 200-204). OCDE. https://www.doi.org/10.1787/39bfe6f3-en
Ohlin, B. (1933). Interregional and international trade. Harvard University Press.
Organización para la Cooperación y el Desarrollo Económico [OCDE] (2015, 2018). OECD Review of Agricultural Policies: Colombia 2015, OECD Publishing. http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/9789264227644-en
Peridy, N. (2005). The trade effects of the Euro-mediterranean partnership: what are the lessons for ASEAN countries?. J Asian Econ, 16(1), 125-139.
Piermartini, R., & Teh, R. (2005). Demystifying modeling methods for trade policy (Discussion Paper 10). World Trade Organization. https://www.wto.org/english/res_e/booksp_e/discussion_papers10_e.pdf
Rahman, M., & Dutta, D. (2012). The gravity model analysis of Bangladesh's trade: A panel data approach. Journal of Asia-Pacific Business, 13(3), 263-286.
Rose, A. (2004). Do we really know that the WTO increases trade? The American Economic Review, 94(1), 98-114.
Roy, M., & Rayhan, Md. I., (2011). Trade flows of Bangladesh: A gravity model approach. Economics Bulletin, 31(1), 950-959.
Sally, M., & Siddique, M. A. B. (2014). Trade creation and diversion under the Thailand-Australia free trade agreement (TAFTA) (Economics Discussion / Working Papers 14-26). The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
Santos, J., & Tenreyro, S. (2006). The log of gravity, the review of economics and statistics (vol. 88(4), pp. 641-658, noviembre). MIT Press.
Serrano, R., & Pinilla, V. (2007). Comercio agrario latinoamericano, 1963-2000. Aplicación de la ecuación gravitacional para flujos desagregados de comercio (Documento de Trabajo 412/2008). Fundación de las Cajas de Ahorros.
Shabaz, M., & Leitão, N. (2010). Intra-industry trade. The Pakistan experience. International Journal of Applied Economics, 7(1), 18-27.
Stolper, W., & Samuelson, P. (1941). Protection and real wages. Review of Economic Studies, 9, 58-73.
Timsina, K., & Culas, R. (2019). Do free trade agreements increase Australian trade: An application of poisson pseudo maximum likelihood estimator? Journal of East-West Business, 26(1).
Tinbergen, J. (1962). Shaping the world economy: Suggestions for an international economic policy. Twentieth Century Fund.
Trade in Value Added (2015). https://stats.oecd.org/Index.aspx?DataSetCode=TIVA_2021_C1
Treid. (2019, mayo). Recuperado de la base de datos Treid.
United Nations Conference on Trade and Development –UNCTAD & World Trade Organization –WTO. (2012). A practical guide to trade policy analysis. United Nations (UN) Publications.
Viner, J. (1950). The economics of customs unions. En Oxford (eds.), The Customs Union Issue (pp. 51-102). Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
Walras, L. (1874). Eléments d'économie politique pure ou théorie de la richessesociale (trad. español: Elementos de economía política pura. Alianza. 1987).
Cómo citar
APA
ACM
ACS
ABNT
Chicago
Harvard
IEEE
MLA
Turabian
Vancouver
Descargar cita
CrossRef Cited-by
1. Juan Camilo Martínez Cruz, Diana Marcela Meneses Marín. (2023). Régimen democrático en Colombia frente a tendencias económicas en Latinoamérica desde el año 2002: el caso de Venezuela y Brasil. Perspectivas en Inteligencia, 15(24), p.143. https://doi.org/10.47961/2145194X.587.
2. Jahir Lombana-Coy, María Esperanza Cuenca, Carlos Yanes-Guerra. (2025). Governance as a Determinant of FDI: A Gravity Model for Intraregional Relations in Latin America (2002-2017). Revista Lasallista de Investigación, 22(1), p.210. https://doi.org/10.22507/rli.v22n1a3670.
Dimensions
PlumX
Visitas a la página del resumen del artículo
Descargas
Licencia
Derechos de autor 2022 Cuadernos de EconomíaCuadernos de Economía a través de la División de Bibliotecas de la Universidad Nacional de Colombia promueve y garantiza el acceso abierto de todos sus contenidos. Los artículos publicados por la revista se encuentran disponibles globalmente con acceso abierto y licenciados bajo los términos de Creative Commons Atribución-No_Comercial-Sin_Derivadas 4.0 Internacional (CC BY-NC-ND 4.0), lo que implica lo siguiente:
