Sacrifice rate and labor precariousness in Mexico, 2005Q1-2019Q4
Tasa de sacrificio y precariedad laboral en México, 2005Q1-2019Q4
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.15446/cuad.econ.v41n87.92783Palabras clave:
new keynesian phillips curve, labor precariousness, unemployment, disinflation, cointegration, ARDL, sacrifice rate (en)curva de phillips nuevo keynesiana, precariedad laboral, desempleo, inflación, cointegración, ARDL, tasa de sacrificio (es)
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Since 1998, the Mexican economy has clearly presented six disinflationary episodes. We estimate seven Phillips curves, to evaluate the social cost in terms of the sacrifice rate in GDP, unemployment rate and in the Rate of Critical Labor Conditions (RCLC). Our results suggest that, by including labor precariousness in the New Keynesian Phillips Curve, measured with RCLC, inflation behavior is more accurately modeled. We found that there are important cointegration relationships that reflect that for 2005Q1-2019Q4 labor precariousness has been the main disinflationary adjustment variable, since 1 point reduction in inflation corresponds to an increase of 3.65 points in RCLC.
Desde 1998, la economía mexicana ha presentado seis episodios desinflacionarios. Estimamos siete Curvas de Phillips, para evaluar el costo social en términos de la tasa de sacrificio en el PIB, tasa de desempleo y Tasa de Condiciones Críticas de Ocupación (TCCO). Nuestros resultados sugieren que, al incluir la precariedad laboral en la Curva de Phillips, se modela la inflación con mayor precisión. Encontramos relaciones de cointegración entre 2005Q1-2019Q4, también que la precariedad laboral ha sido la variable de ajuste desinflacionario, ya que una reducción de 1 punto en la inflación corresponde a un aumento de 3.65 puntos en TCCO.
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