Correo Electrónico
DNINFOA - SIA
Bibliotecas
Convocatorias
Identidad U.N.
Publicado
Sacrifice rate and labor precariousness in Mexico, 2005Q1-2019Q4
Tasa de sacrificio y precariedad laboral en México, 2005Q1-2019Q4
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.15446/cuad.econ.v41n87.92783Palabras clave:
new keynesian phillips curve, labor precariousness, unemployment, disinflation, cointegration, ARDL, sacrifice rate (en)curva de phillips nuevo keynesiana, precariedad laboral, desempleo, inflación, cointegración, ARDL, tasa de sacrificio (es)
Descargas
Since 1998, the Mexican economy has clearly presented six disinflationary episodes. We estimate seven Phillips curves, to evaluate the social cost in terms of the sacrifice rate in GDP, unemployment rate and in the Rate of Critical Labor Conditions (RCLC). Our results suggest that, by including labor precariousness in the New Keynesian Phillips Curve, measured with RCLC, inflation behavior is more accurately modeled. We found that there are important cointegration relationships that reflect that for 2005Q1-2019Q4 labor precariousness has been the main disinflationary adjustment variable, since 1 point reduction in inflation corresponds to an increase of 3.65 points in RCLC.
Desde 1998, la economía mexicana ha presentado seis episodios desinflacionarios. Estimamos siete Curvas de Phillips, para evaluar el costo social en términos de la tasa de sacrificio en el PIB, tasa de desempleo y Tasa de Condiciones Críticas de Ocupación (TCCO). Nuestros resultados sugieren que, al incluir la precariedad laboral en la Curva de Phillips, se modela la inflación con mayor precisión. Encontramos relaciones de cointegración entre 2005Q1-2019Q4, también que la precariedad laboral ha sido la variable de ajuste desinflacionario, ya que una reducción de 1 punto en la inflación corresponde a un aumento de 3.65 puntos en TCCO.
Referencias
Andersen, P. S., & Wascher, W. (1999). Sacrifice ratios and the conduct of monetary policy in conditions of low inflation (SSRN Electronic Journal). https://www.bis.org/publ/work82.pdf
Ashley, R., & Verbrugge, R. (2020). Finding a stable Phillips curve relationship: A persistence-dependent regression model. https://www.clevelandfed.org/~/media/content/newsroom%20and%20events/publications/working%20papers/2020/wp1909r.pdf. DOI: https://doi.org/10.26509/frbc-wp-201909r
Attali, J. (1999). Diccionario del Siglo XXI. Paidós Iberoamérica.
Ball, L. (1993). What determines the sacrifice ratio? In Monetary Policy (NBER Chapters, pp. 155-193). National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. DOI: https://doi.org/10.3386/w4306
Ball, L., Mankiw, G., & Romer, D. (1988). The newkeynesian economics and the output-inflation trade-off (Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 1). DOI: https://doi.org/10.2307/2534424
Banco de México. (2008). Informe Anual. Ciudad de México. https://www.banxico.org.mx/publicaciones-y-prensa/informes-anuales/%7B27E0486F-9932-63AA-548C-7B325FF8C46E%7D.pdf. Accessed 02 August 2020
Bank of England. (1999). Annual Report. https://www.bankofengland.co.uk//media/boe/files/annualreport/1999/boe1999.pdf?la=en&hash=7956409917A9F6125C10B6C5120272D4B10C34E0. Accessed 02 August 2020
Blanchard, O. (2008). The state of macro. National Bureau of Economic Research. DOI: https://doi.org/10.3386/w14259
Blanchard, O., Dell’ariccia, G., & Mauro, P. (2010). Rethinking macroeconomic policy. Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, 42, 199-215. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1538-4616.2010.00334.x
Borio, C., & Gambacorta, L. (2017). Monetary policy and bank lending in a low interest rate environment: Diminishing effectiveness? Journal of Macroeconomics, 54, 217-231. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmacro.2017.02.005
Carlin, W., & Soskice, D. (2015). Macroeconomics: Institutions, instability, and the financial system: Oxford University Press.
Cecchetti, S. G., & Rich, R. W. (2001). Structural estimates of the U. S. sacrifice ratio. Journal of business & economic statistics: a publication of the American Statistical Association, 19(4), 416-427. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1198/07350010152596664
Coibion, O., Gorodnichenko, Y., & Ropele, T. (2020). Inflation expectations and firm decisions: New causal evidence. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 135(1), 165-219. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjz029
Enders, W. (2004). Applied econometric times series (2nd ed.). John Wiley & Sons.
Fisher, P., Mahadeva, L., & Whitley, J. (1996). The output gap and inflation: Experience at the Bank of England. BIS Model Builders Meeting. https://www.bis.org/publ/confp04c.pdf
Friedman, M. (1968). The role of monetary policy. American Economic Review, 58, 102-110.
Friedman, M. (1977). Nobel lecture: Inflation and unemployment. Journal of political economy, 85(3), 451-472. https://doi.org/10.1086/260579 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1086/260579
Fuhrer, J. (1994). Optimal monetary policy and the sacrifice ratio. Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, 38, 43-84.
Galí, J., & Gertler, M. (1999). Inflation dynamics: A structural econometric analysis. Journal of Monetary Economics, 44(2), 195-222. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/S0304-3932(99)00023-9
Galí, J., Gertler, M., & López-Salido, J. D. (2001). European inflation dynamics. European Economic Review, 45(7), 1237-1270. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/S0014-2921(00)00105-7
Gonçalves, C. E. S., & Carvalho, A. (2008). Inflation targeting and the sacrifice ratio. Revista Brasileira de Economia, 62(2), 177-188. https://www.scielo.br/j/rbe/a/rRRtC77JySWJMmpS7tBKwVc/?lang=en DOI: https://doi.org/10.1590/S0034-71402008000200003
Greene, W. (2008). Econometric analysis (6th ed.). Prentice-Hall.
Hayashi, F. (2000). Econometrics. Princeton University Press.
Hendry, D., & Richard, J-F. (1983). The econometric analysis of economic time series. International Statistical Review, 51(2), 111-148. https://www.jstor.org/stable/1402738 DOI: https://doi.org/10.2307/1402738
Hodrick, R., & Prescott, E. (1980). Postwar U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 29(1), 16.https://www0.gsb.columbia.edu/faculty/rhodrick/prescott-hodrick1997.pdf DOI: https://doi.org/10.2307/2953682
Pindyck, R., & Rubinfeld, D. (1991). Econometric models and economic forecasts. McGraw-Hill.
Ramos-Francia, M., & Torres, A. (2005). Reducción de la inflación a través de un esquema de objetivos de inflación: la experiencia mexicana (Working Papers, 2005-01). Banco de México. DOI: https://doi.org/10.36095/banxico/di.2005.01
Ramos-Francia, M., & Torres, A. (2008). Inflation dynamics in Mexico: A characterization using the New Phillips curve. The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, 19(3), 274-289. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.najef.2008.04.001 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.najef.2008.04.001
Romer, C. D., & Romer, D. H. (1989). Does monetary policy matter? A new test in the spirit of Friedman and Schwartz. NBER Macroeconomics Annual, 4, 121. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1086/654103
Samuelson, P., & Solow, R. (1960). Analytical aspects of anti-inflation policy. The American Economic Review, 50(2), 177-194.
Stock, J., & Watson, M. (2002). Has the business cycle changed and why?. NBER Macroeconomics Annual, 17, 159-218. https://www.nber.org/system/files/chapters/c11075/c11075.pdf DOI: https://doi.org/10.1086/ma.17.3585284
Turrent, E. (2007). El Banco de México en evolución: transición hacia el esquema de objetivos de inflación. Análisis Económico, XXII(50), 243-260.
Wald, A. (1943). Tests of statistical hypotheses concerning several parameters when the number of observations is large. Transactions of the American Mathematical Society, 54(3), 426-482. https://www.jstor.org/stable/1990256 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1090/S0002-9947-1943-0012401-3
Cómo citar
APA
ACM
ACS
ABNT
Chicago
Harvard
IEEE
MLA
Turabian
Vancouver
Descargar cita
Licencia
Derechos de autor 2022 Cuadernos de EconomíaCuadernos de Economía a través de la División de Bibliotecas de la Universidad Nacional de Colombia promueve y garantiza el acceso abierto de todos sus contenidos. Los artículos publicados por la revista se encuentran disponibles globalmente con acceso abierto y licenciados bajo los términos de Creative Commons Atribución-No_Comercial-Sin_Derivadas 4.0 Internacional (CC BY-NC-ND 4.0), lo que implica lo siguiente:
