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The peruvian mining boom and dutch disease. Empirical evidence from 2003 to 2020
El boom minero peruano y la enfermedad holandesa. Evidencia empírica del 2003 al 2020.
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.15446/cuad.econ.v42n90.94529Palabras clave:
Dutch disease, VARX estimation, Mineral price boom, Peru (en)Enfermedad holandesa, Estimación VARX, Auge de precio de los minerales, Perú (es)
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The aim of this paper is to verify whether Peru has suffered from Dutch disease. To do this, a VARX model with monthly data from 2003 to 2020 is used to analyze whether the mining boom prices of the 2000s and 2010s have had a negative impact on the real sector, especially on non-primary manufacturing. Results show that a real exchange rate shock explains 8.2% of the variation in non-primary manufacturing. Even though the effect is significant, it is relatively small, and this is due to the Peruvian Central Bank intervening to reduce exchange rate volatility
El objetivo de este artículo es verificar si Perú ha sufrido una enfermedad holandesa. Para ello se utiliza un modelo VARX con datos mensuales de 2003 a 2020 para analizar si el boom minero de las últimas dos décadas ha tenido un efecto negativo en el sector real, especialmente en manufactura no primaria. Los resultados muestran que un shock de tipo de cambio real explica el 8,2 % de la variación en la manufactura no primaria. Aunque existe un efecto significativo, este es pequeño, y esto debido a que el Banco Central de Perú interviene reduciendo la volatilidad del tipo de cambio.
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