Publicado

2018-07-01

A Gravity Model of Trade for Nicaraguan Agricultural Exports

Un modelo gravitacional de comercio para las exportaciones agrícolas nicaragüenses

Um modelo gravitacional de comércio para as exportações agrícolas da Nicarágua

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.15446/cuad.econ.v37n74.55016

Palabras clave:

Gravity model of trade, Nicaraguan agricultural exports, free trade agreements. (en)
modelo gravitacional de comercio, exportaciones agrícolas nicaragüenses, tratados de libre comercio (es)
modelo gravitacional de comércio, exportações agrícolas nicaraguenses, tratados de livre comércio (pt)

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Autores/as

  • Medardo Aguirre González Universidad de Talca
  • Claudio Candia Campano Universidad de Talca
  • Lilliam Antón López Universidad de Talca
This research aims to find the determining factors of Nicaraguan agricultural exports. To carry out this study, the author formulated a Gravity Model of Trade (GMT) and then made an estimation using a version of Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) that incorporates a consistent covariance matrix estimator to correct the heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation effects. The data considered observations over twenty years and for twelve countries: eight have signed a Free Trade Agreement (FTA) with Nicaragua and four have not. The variables that significantly increased the flow of Nicaraguan agricultural exports are the following: Nicaragua’s trading partners’ population, Nicaragua’s Gross Domestic Product per capita (GDP pc), the Real Exchange Rate (RER), and Nicaragua’s trading partners’ GDP pc; however, the distance variable turned out to be significantly trade-inhibiting. Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) predominantly have significant effects.

Este artículo intenta identificar los factores determinantes de las exportaciones agrícolas de Nicaragua. Para realizar el estudio se formuló un modelo gravitacional de comercio (MGC) que luego fue estimado a través de una versión de mínimos cuadrados ordinarios (MCO) que incorpora un estimador consistente de la matriz de covarianzas para corregir los efectos de la heterocedasticidad y autocorrelación. El panel de datos consideró observaciones para veinte años y doce países, de los cuales algunos han firmado un tratado de libre comercio (TLC) con Nicaragua (ocho) y otros que no (cuatro). Como variables que incrementan significativamente el flujo de exportaciones agrícolas nicaragüenses se encuentran: la población de los socios comerciales de Nicaragua, el producto interno bruto per cápita (PIB pc) de Nicaragua, el tipo de cambio real (TCR) y el PIB pc de sus socios comerciales, mientras que la variable distancia resultó ser significativamente inhibidora del intercambio. En relación con los efectos de los TLC, se observa predominio de efectos significativos.

Este artigo tenta identificar os determinantes das exportações agrícolas da Nicarágua. Para fazer o estudo um modelo gravitacional de comércio (MGC), que foi então estimado utilizando uma versão de mínimos quadrados ordinários (MCO) incorporando uma estimativa consistente da matriz de covariância para corrigir os efeitos de heterocedasticidad e autocorrelação. O painel de dados considerou observações por vinte anos e doze países, dos quais alguns assinaram um acordo de livre comércio (TLC) com a Nicarágua (oito) e outros que não (quatro). As variáveis que aumentam significativamente o fluxo de exportações agrícolas nicaraguenses são: a população de parceiros da Nicarágua, o PIB per capita da Nicarágua, a taxa de câmbio real (TCR), e o PIB Per capita dos seus parceiros comerciais, enquanto a distância variável provou estar inibindo significativamente a troca. Em relação com os efeitos dos TLC, há predominância de efeitos significativos.

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Cómo citar

APA

Aguirre González, M., Candia Campano, C. y Antón López, L. (2018). A Gravity Model of Trade for Nicaraguan Agricultural Exports. Cuadernos de Economía, 37(74), 391–428. https://doi.org/10.15446/cuad.econ.v37n74.55016

ACM

[1]
Aguirre González, M., Candia Campano, C. y Antón López, L. 2018. A Gravity Model of Trade for Nicaraguan Agricultural Exports. Cuadernos de Economía. 37, 74 (jul. 2018), 391–428. DOI:https://doi.org/10.15446/cuad.econ.v37n74.55016.

ACS

(1)
Aguirre González, M.; Candia Campano, C.; Antón López, L. A Gravity Model of Trade for Nicaraguan Agricultural Exports. Cuad. econ 2018, 37, 391-428.

ABNT

AGUIRRE GONZÁLEZ, M.; CANDIA CAMPANO, C.; ANTÓN LÓPEZ, L. A Gravity Model of Trade for Nicaraguan Agricultural Exports. Cuadernos de Economía, [S. l.], v. 37, n. 74, p. 391–428, 2018. DOI: 10.15446/cuad.econ.v37n74.55016. Disponível em: https://revistas.unal.edu.co/index.php/ceconomia/article/view/55016. Acesso em: 22 ene. 2025.

Chicago

Aguirre González, Medardo, Claudio Candia Campano, y Lilliam Antón López. 2018. «A Gravity Model of Trade for Nicaraguan Agricultural Exports». Cuadernos De Economía 37 (74):391-428. https://doi.org/10.15446/cuad.econ.v37n74.55016.

Harvard

Aguirre González, M., Candia Campano, C. y Antón López, L. (2018) «A Gravity Model of Trade for Nicaraguan Agricultural Exports», Cuadernos de Economía, 37(74), pp. 391–428. doi: 10.15446/cuad.econ.v37n74.55016.

IEEE

[1]
M. Aguirre González, C. Candia Campano, y L. Antón López, «A Gravity Model of Trade for Nicaraguan Agricultural Exports», Cuad. econ, vol. 37, n.º 74, pp. 391–428, jul. 2018.

MLA

Aguirre González, M., C. Candia Campano, y L. Antón López. «A Gravity Model of Trade for Nicaraguan Agricultural Exports». Cuadernos de Economía, vol. 37, n.º 74, julio de 2018, pp. 391-28, doi:10.15446/cuad.econ.v37n74.55016.

Turabian

Aguirre González, Medardo, Claudio Candia Campano, y Lilliam Antón López. «A Gravity Model of Trade for Nicaraguan Agricultural Exports». Cuadernos de Economía 37, no. 74 (julio 1, 2018): 391–428. Accedido enero 22, 2025. https://revistas.unal.edu.co/index.php/ceconomia/article/view/55016.

Vancouver

1.
Aguirre González M, Candia Campano C, Antón López L. A Gravity Model of Trade for Nicaraguan Agricultural Exports. Cuad. econ [Internet]. 1 de julio de 2018 [citado 22 de enero de 2025];37(74):391-428. Disponible en: https://revistas.unal.edu.co/index.php/ceconomia/article/view/55016

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