Published

2025-02-13

Estimation of the date and magnitude of impending massive earthquakes using the integration of precursors obtainable from remote sensing data

Estimación del momento y la magnitud de los terremotos masivos inminentes a través de la integración de precursores obtenidos a través de información de detección remota

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.15446/esrj.v28n4.105079

Keywords:

Earthquake, Anomaly detection, Remote sensing, Support vector machine, Random forest (en)
terremoto, detección de anomalías, detección remota, máquina de vectores de soporte, bosque aleatorio (es)

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Authors

  • Mohammad Mahdi Khoshgoftar School of Surveying and Geospatial Engineering, College of Engineering, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7400-1493
  • Mohammad Reza Saradjian School of Surveying and Geospatial Engineering, College of Engineering, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran

A single precursor is not usually an accurate, precise, and adequate measure to predict earthquake parameters. Therefore, it is more appropriate to combine multiple precursors and exploit parameters extracted from them to reduce the uncertainty of the prediction. The assumption in this study is based on the fact that most Earthquakes happen in active fault zones. The study is about the estimation of Earthquake parameters such as date and magnitude. In this study, remote sensing observations (such as electron and ion density, electron temperature, Total Electron Content (TEC), Land Surface Temperature (LST), Sea Surface Temperature (SST), Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD), and Surface Latent Heat Flux (SLHF)) in different modalities acquired several days before impending earthquakes have been investigated to extract earthquake parameters. In this study, three methods: median, support vector regression (SVR), and random forest (RF) have been used to detect anomalies. Then, by estimating the amount of anomaly deviation from the normal state, the magnitude of the impending earthquake is estimated. The final earthquake parameters (such as date and magnitude) can be obtained by integrating the earthquake parameters extracted from different earthquake precursors using the mean square error (MSE) method.

Un solo precursor no es usualmente una medida exacta, precisa y adecuada para predecir los parámetros de un terremoto. Además, es más apropiado combinar múltiples precursores e identificar sus propios parámetros para reducir la incertidumbre de la predicción. El supuesto de este trabajo está basado en que la mayoría de terremotos ocurren en zonas de fallas activas. Este estudio se basa en la estimación de los parámetros de terremoto como momento y magnitud. En este trabajo se investigaron las observaciones de detección remota en diferentes modalidades (tales como densidad de iones y electrones, temperatura de electrones, contenido total de electrones, temperatura de la superficie terrestre, temperatura de la superficie marina, profundidad óptica del aerosol y flujo de calor latente), adquiridas varios días antes de los terremotos inminentes, para extraer los parámetros del terremoto. Se usaron tres métodos para detectar las anomalías: mediana, regresión de vectores de soporte, y bosque aleatorio. Luego se estimó la magnitud de los terremotos inminentes al estimar la medida de la desviación de la anomalía. Los parámetros finales del terremoto (como momento y magnitud) se pueden obtener al integrar los parámetros de terremoto extraídos de diferentes precursores de terremoto al usar el método del error cuadrático medio.

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How to Cite

APA

Khoshgoftar, M. M. and Saradjian, M. R. (2025). Estimation of the date and magnitude of impending massive earthquakes using the integration of precursors obtainable from remote sensing data. Earth Sciences Research Journal, 28(4), 447–460. https://doi.org/10.15446/esrj.v28n4.105079

ACM

[1]
Khoshgoftar, M.M. and Saradjian, M.R. 2025. Estimation of the date and magnitude of impending massive earthquakes using the integration of precursors obtainable from remote sensing data. Earth Sciences Research Journal. 28, 4 (Feb. 2025), 447–460. DOI:https://doi.org/10.15446/esrj.v28n4.105079.

ACS

(1)
Khoshgoftar, M. M.; Saradjian, M. R. Estimation of the date and magnitude of impending massive earthquakes using the integration of precursors obtainable from remote sensing data. Earth sci. res. j. 2025, 28, 447-460.

ABNT

KHOSHGOFTAR, M. M.; SARADJIAN, M. R. Estimation of the date and magnitude of impending massive earthquakes using the integration of precursors obtainable from remote sensing data. Earth Sciences Research Journal, [S. l.], v. 28, n. 4, p. 447–460, 2025. DOI: 10.15446/esrj.v28n4.105079. Disponível em: https://revistas.unal.edu.co/index.php/esrj/article/view/105079. Acesso em: 13 apr. 2025.

Chicago

Khoshgoftar, Mohammad Mahdi, and Mohammad Reza Saradjian. 2025. “Estimation of the date and magnitude of impending massive earthquakes using the integration of precursors obtainable from remote sensing data”. Earth Sciences Research Journal 28 (4):447-60. https://doi.org/10.15446/esrj.v28n4.105079.

Harvard

Khoshgoftar, M. M. and Saradjian, M. R. (2025) “Estimation of the date and magnitude of impending massive earthquakes using the integration of precursors obtainable from remote sensing data”, Earth Sciences Research Journal, 28(4), pp. 447–460. doi: 10.15446/esrj.v28n4.105079.

IEEE

[1]
M. M. Khoshgoftar and M. R. Saradjian, “Estimation of the date and magnitude of impending massive earthquakes using the integration of precursors obtainable from remote sensing data”, Earth sci. res. j., vol. 28, no. 4, pp. 447–460, Feb. 2025.

MLA

Khoshgoftar, M. M., and M. R. Saradjian. “Estimation of the date and magnitude of impending massive earthquakes using the integration of precursors obtainable from remote sensing data”. Earth Sciences Research Journal, vol. 28, no. 4, Feb. 2025, pp. 447-60, doi:10.15446/esrj.v28n4.105079.

Turabian

Khoshgoftar, Mohammad Mahdi, and Mohammad Reza Saradjian. “Estimation of the date and magnitude of impending massive earthquakes using the integration of precursors obtainable from remote sensing data”. Earth Sciences Research Journal 28, no. 4 (February 13, 2025): 447–460. Accessed April 13, 2025. https://revistas.unal.edu.co/index.php/esrj/article/view/105079.

Vancouver

1.
Khoshgoftar MM, Saradjian MR. Estimation of the date and magnitude of impending massive earthquakes using the integration of precursors obtainable from remote sensing data. Earth sci. res. j. [Internet]. 2025 Feb. 13 [cited 2025 Apr. 13];28(4):447-60. Available from: https://revistas.unal.edu.co/index.php/esrj/article/view/105079

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