Published

2024-11-25

Coastal flood and damage assessment under sea level rise projections: a case study in San Francisco de Campeche, Mexico

Evaluación de daños e inundaciones costeras bajo proyecciones de aumento del nivel del mar: un estudio de caso en San Francisco de Campeche, México

Keywords:

flood risk and damage, sea level rise, numerical model, San Francisco de Campeche (en)
riesgo y daños por inundaciones, aumento del nivel del mar, modelo numérico, San Francisco de Campeche (es)

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Authors

  • Javier Pan Barcel Universidad Autónoma de Campeche
  • Román Alejandro Canul Turriza Universidad Autónoma de Campeche
  • Violeta Z. Fernández-Díaz Universidad Autónoma de Baja California
  • Andrea del R. Cruz y Cruz Universidad Autónoma de Campeche
  • Gabriela J. Arreguín-Rodríguez Universidad Autónoma de Baja California

The city of San Francisco de Campeche, located in the Yucatan Peninsula, Mexico, is vulnerable to coastal flooding due to its geographical location and low altitude terrain. Under these inherent site conditions, sea level rise associated with climate change represents a potential threat to people's property and goods in the coming decades. In this work, three scenarios of sea level rise in the coastal area of the city of San Francisco de Campeche were evaluated through numerical simulation and using wave and wind data obtained from the ERA5 reanalysis model as inputs: astronomical tide data and a high-resolution topobathymetric model. The scenarios evaluated correspond to the periods 2031-2050, 2046-2065, and 2081-2100 reported in the latest IPCC assessment report. Damage to people's property and goods was analyzed using the CENAPRED methodology based on the type of housing. The results allow identifying that the area of the old neighborhood of San Román, Colonia Miramar, Pedro Sainz de Baranda, Adolfo Ruiz Cortinez, Resurgimiento avenues, and the Campeche-Merida and Campeche-Champoton coastal highway, as well as the federal and state government offices they will be the most affected areas by sea level rise with economic damages exceeding $13,860,322 Mexican pesos ($USD 805,832.67) under the 2031-2050 scenario, $14,706,754  Mexican pesos ($USD 855,043.83) in the 2046-2065 scenario and $22,536,250 Mexican pesos ($USD 1,310,247.09) in the 2081-2100 scenario; and the Los Petenes Biosphere Reserve as one of the ecological zones with the greatest extension of flooding; as well as downtown areas of the city that currently have residential, commercial, recreational, and port uses. Considering the three scenarios and effects on the population and housing, the 2081-2100 scenario is the one that generates the greatest flooding and with it a greater economic loss that exceeds 12 million dollars compared to the 2046-2050 scenario.

La ciudad de San Francisco de Campeche, ubicada en la Península de Yucatán, México; es vulnerable a inundaciones costeras debido a su ubicación geográfica y terreno de baja altitud. Bajo estas condiciones inherentes al sitio, el aumento del nivel del mar asociado con el cambio climático representa una amenaza potencial a las propiedades y bienes de las personas en las próximas décadas. En este trabajo se evaluaron tres escenarios de aumento del nivel del mar en la zona costera de la ciudad de San Francisco de Campeche mediante simulación numérica y utilizando como insumos datos de oleaje y viento obtenidos del modelo de reanálisis ERA5, datos de mareas astronómicos y un modelo topobatimétrico de alta resolución. Los escenarios evaluados corresponden a los períodos 2031-2050, 2046-2065 y 2081-2100 reportados en el último informe de evaluación del IPCC. Los daños a las propiedades y bienes de las personas se analizaron mediante la metodología del CENAPRED según el tipo de vivienda. Los resultados permiten identificar que el área del antiguo barrio de San Román, la Colonia Miramar, las avenidas Pedro Sainz de Baranda, Adolfo Ruiz Cortínez, Resurgimiento y la carretera costera Campeche-Mérida y Campeche-Champotón, así como las oficinas del gobierno federal y estatal serán las zonas más afectadas por el aumento del nivel del mar con daños económicos superiores a los $13,860,322 pesos mexicanos ($USD 805,832.67) en el escenario 2031-2050, $14,706,754 pesos mexicanos ($USD 855,043.83) en el escenario 2046-2065 y $22,536,250 pesos mexicanos ($USD 1.310.247,09) en el escenario 2081-2100; y la Reserva de la Biosfera Los Petenes como una de las zonas ecológicas con mayor extensión de inundaciones; así como zonas céntricas de la ciudad que actualmente tienen usos residenciales, comerciales, recreativos y portuarios. Considerando los tres escenarios y efectos sobre la población y la vivienda, el escenario 2081-2100 es el que genera mayores inundaciones y con ello una mayor pérdida económica que supera los 12 millones de dólares respecto al escenario 2046-2050.

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How to Cite

APA

Pan Barcel, J., Canul Turriza, R. A. ., Fernández-Díaz, V. Z., Cruz y Cruz, A. del R. and Arreguín-Rodríguez, G. J. (2024). Coastal flood and damage assessment under sea level rise projections: a case study in San Francisco de Campeche, Mexico. Earth Sciences Research Journal, 28(3), 295–304. https://revistas.unal.edu.co/index.php/esrj/article/view/113693

ACM

[1]
Pan Barcel, J., Canul Turriza, R.A. , Fernández-Díaz, V.Z., Cruz y Cruz, A. del R. and Arreguín-Rodríguez, G.J. 2024. Coastal flood and damage assessment under sea level rise projections: a case study in San Francisco de Campeche, Mexico. Earth Sciences Research Journal. 28, 3 (Nov. 2024), 295–304.

ACS

(1)
Pan Barcel, J.; Canul Turriza, R. A. .; Fernández-Díaz, V. Z.; Cruz y Cruz, A. del R.; Arreguín-Rodríguez, G. J. Coastal flood and damage assessment under sea level rise projections: a case study in San Francisco de Campeche, Mexico. Earth sci. res. j. 2024, 28, 295-304.

ABNT

PAN BARCEL, J.; CANUL TURRIZA, R. A. .; FERNÁNDEZ-DÍAZ, V. Z.; CRUZ Y CRUZ, A. del R.; ARREGUÍN-RODRÍGUEZ, G. J. Coastal flood and damage assessment under sea level rise projections: a case study in San Francisco de Campeche, Mexico. Earth Sciences Research Journal, [S. l.], v. 28, n. 3, p. 295–304, 2024. Disponível em: https://revistas.unal.edu.co/index.php/esrj/article/view/113693. Acesso em: 21 jan. 2025.

Chicago

Pan Barcel, Javier, Román Alejandro Canul Turriza, Violeta Z. Fernández-Díaz, Andrea del R. Cruz y Cruz, and Gabriela J. Arreguín-Rodríguez. 2024. “Coastal flood and damage assessment under sea level rise projections: a case study in San Francisco de Campeche, Mexico”. Earth Sciences Research Journal 28 (3):295-304. https://revistas.unal.edu.co/index.php/esrj/article/view/113693.

Harvard

Pan Barcel, J., Canul Turriza, R. A. ., Fernández-Díaz, V. Z., Cruz y Cruz, A. del R. and Arreguín-Rodríguez, G. J. (2024) “Coastal flood and damage assessment under sea level rise projections: a case study in San Francisco de Campeche, Mexico”, Earth Sciences Research Journal, 28(3), pp. 295–304. Available at: https://revistas.unal.edu.co/index.php/esrj/article/view/113693 (Accessed: 21 January 2025).

IEEE

[1]
J. Pan Barcel, R. A. . Canul Turriza, V. Z. Fernández-Díaz, A. del R. Cruz y Cruz, and G. J. Arreguín-Rodríguez, “Coastal flood and damage assessment under sea level rise projections: a case study in San Francisco de Campeche, Mexico”, Earth sci. res. j., vol. 28, no. 3, pp. 295–304, Nov. 2024.

MLA

Pan Barcel, J., R. A. . Canul Turriza, V. Z. Fernández-Díaz, A. del R. Cruz y Cruz, and G. J. Arreguín-Rodríguez. “Coastal flood and damage assessment under sea level rise projections: a case study in San Francisco de Campeche, Mexico”. Earth Sciences Research Journal, vol. 28, no. 3, Nov. 2024, pp. 295-04, https://revistas.unal.edu.co/index.php/esrj/article/view/113693.

Turabian

Pan Barcel, Javier, Román Alejandro Canul Turriza, Violeta Z. Fernández-Díaz, Andrea del R. Cruz y Cruz, and Gabriela J. Arreguín-Rodríguez. “Coastal flood and damage assessment under sea level rise projections: a case study in San Francisco de Campeche, Mexico”. Earth Sciences Research Journal 28, no. 3 (November 25, 2024): 295–304. Accessed January 21, 2025. https://revistas.unal.edu.co/index.php/esrj/article/view/113693.

Vancouver

1.
Pan Barcel J, Canul Turriza RA, Fernández-Díaz VZ, Cruz y Cruz A del R, Arreguín-Rodríguez GJ. Coastal flood and damage assessment under sea level rise projections: a case study in San Francisco de Campeche, Mexico. Earth sci. res. j. [Internet]. 2024 Nov. 25 [cited 2025 Jan. 21];28(3):295-304. Available from: https://revistas.unal.edu.co/index.php/esrj/article/view/113693

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