Published

2025-10-29

Susceptibility Assessment of Deep-seated Landslides in Sub-Himalayan Galiat Region, Pakistan

Evaluación de la susceptibilidad de deslizamientos de tierra profundos en la región Galiat del sub-Himalaya, Pakistán

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.15446/esrj.v29n3.116114

Keywords:

Landslide inventory, deep-seated landslide, landslide susceptibility map, maximum entropy model (en)
inventario de deslizamientos de tierra, deslizamientos profundos, mapa de deslizamientos de tierra, modelo de máxima entropía (es)

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Landslides are the most prevalent natural hazards in the Sub-Himalayan region, posing extensive socio-economic losses. Their occurrence is highly influenced by weak geological formations, steep and dissected topography, irregular land-use, high seismic activity, and seasonal precipitation and snowmelt. Despite the high threat, there is an absence of landslide susceptibility maps for most of northern Pakistan, hindering effective measures for landslide hazard prevention. In this study, a relevant deep-seated landslide inventory for landslide susceptibility assessment of the Galiat Region was prepared based on field studies and multi-temporal Google Earth images, identifying 68 landslide polygons. Due to the localized nature of landslides, substantial predictions cannot be made with classical statistical modelling. Therefore, the landslide susceptibility map of the study area was modelled using the maximum entropy method, which allows predictions based on limited observational data. The analyses were repeated, with three randomly selected data sets being 30% and 70% for training and testing data, respectively. Fourteen environmental variables were considered, including geology, digital elevation model (DEM), and first and second DEM derivatives. The accuracy of the obtained models reached 0.80 ±0.002, evaluated by the AUC technique. The high to very high susceptible classes correspond to 26.16 % of the study area, including 74.3 % of the mapped landslides. The resultant landslide susceptibility map will raise understanding of dynamic and potential landslides for citizens, engineers, and land-use agencies.

Los deslizamientos de tierra son la amenaza natural más prevalente en la región del sub-Himalaya, y generan grandes perdidas socioeconómicas. Su ocurrencia está fuertemente influenciada por las débiles formaciones geológicas, la topografía inclinada y diseccionada, el uso irregular del suelo, la alta actividad sísmica y las lluvias estacionarias y el descongelamiento de nieve. A pesar de esta amenaza hacen falta mapas de susceptibilidad de deslizamientos de tierra para gran parte del norte de Pakistán, lo que dificulta la implementación efectiva de medidas para la mitigacion de estas amenazas. Para este estudio se preparó un inventario de evaluación de la susceptibilidad de deslizamientos de tierra profundos en la región de Galiat con base en estudios de campo y de imágenes multitemporales de Google Earth, donde se identificaron 68 polígonos de deslizamiento. Debido a la naturaleza localizada de los deslizamientos no se pudieron hacer predicciones sustanciales con los modelos estadísticos clásicos. Además, el mapa de susceptibilidad de deslizamientos de tierra del área de estudio se modeló con el método de máxima entropía, lo que permite predicciones con base en datos observacionales limitados. Los análisis se repitieron con tres secuencias de datos seleccionadas aleatoriamente, cada una con el 30 por ciento de entrenamiento y el 70 por ciento de prueba. Se consideraron 14 variables ambientales que incluyen geología, modelo de elevación digital, y la primera y segunda derivada de los modelos de elevación digital. La exactitud de los modelos obtenidos alcanzó 0.80 ± 0.002, según se evaluó con la técnica AUC. La clasificación de alta a muy alta susceptibilidad corresponde al 26.16 % del área de estudio, y que incluye el 74.3 % de los deslizamientos mapeados. El mapa de susceptibilidad de deslizamientos de tierra resultante incrementará el conocimiento de las dinámicas y potenciales deslizamientos para ciudadanos, ingenieros y agencias de uso del suelo.

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How to Cite

APA

Mehmood, Q. & Can, T. (2025). Susceptibility Assessment of Deep-seated Landslides in Sub-Himalayan Galiat Region, Pakistan. Earth Sciences Research Journal, 29(3), 261–273. https://doi.org/10.15446/esrj.v29n3.116114

ACM

[1]
Mehmood, Q. and Can, T. 2025. Susceptibility Assessment of Deep-seated Landslides in Sub-Himalayan Galiat Region, Pakistan. Earth Sciences Research Journal. 29, 3 (Oct. 2025), 261–273. DOI:https://doi.org/10.15446/esrj.v29n3.116114.

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(1)
Mehmood, Q.; Can, T. Susceptibility Assessment of Deep-seated Landslides in Sub-Himalayan Galiat Region, Pakistan. Earth sci. res. j. 2025, 29, 261-273.

ABNT

MEHMOOD, Q.; CAN, T. Susceptibility Assessment of Deep-seated Landslides in Sub-Himalayan Galiat Region, Pakistan. Earth Sciences Research Journal, [S. l.], v. 29, n. 3, p. 261–273, 2025. DOI: 10.15446/esrj.v29n3.116114. Disponível em: https://revistas.unal.edu.co/index.php/esrj/article/view/116114. Acesso em: 26 dec. 2025.

Chicago

Mehmood, Qaiser, and Tolga Can. 2025. “Susceptibility Assessment of Deep-seated Landslides in Sub-Himalayan Galiat Region, Pakistan”. Earth Sciences Research Journal 29 (3):261-73. https://doi.org/10.15446/esrj.v29n3.116114.

Harvard

Mehmood, Q. and Can, T. (2025) “Susceptibility Assessment of Deep-seated Landslides in Sub-Himalayan Galiat Region, Pakistan”, Earth Sciences Research Journal, 29(3), pp. 261–273. doi: 10.15446/esrj.v29n3.116114.

IEEE

[1]
Q. Mehmood and T. Can, “Susceptibility Assessment of Deep-seated Landslides in Sub-Himalayan Galiat Region, Pakistan”, Earth sci. res. j., vol. 29, no. 3, pp. 261–273, Oct. 2025.

MLA

Mehmood, Q., and T. Can. “Susceptibility Assessment of Deep-seated Landslides in Sub-Himalayan Galiat Region, Pakistan”. Earth Sciences Research Journal, vol. 29, no. 3, Oct. 2025, pp. 261-73, doi:10.15446/esrj.v29n3.116114.

Turabian

Mehmood, Qaiser, and Tolga Can. “Susceptibility Assessment of Deep-seated Landslides in Sub-Himalayan Galiat Region, Pakistan”. Earth Sciences Research Journal 29, no. 3 (October 29, 2025): 261–273. Accessed December 26, 2025. https://revistas.unal.edu.co/index.php/esrj/article/view/116114.

Vancouver

1.
Mehmood Q, Can T. Susceptibility Assessment of Deep-seated Landslides in Sub-Himalayan Galiat Region, Pakistan. Earth sci. res. j. [Internet]. 2025 Oct. 29 [cited 2025 Dec. 26];29(3):261-73. Available from: https://revistas.unal.edu.co/index.php/esrj/article/view/116114

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