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A Multi-Criteria GIS–AHP Framework for Wildfire Risk Assessment in Northern Algeria: Integrating Environmental and Anthropogenic Factors
Marco SIG-AHP Multicriterio para la Evaluación del Riesgo de Incendios Forestales en el Norte de Argelia: Integración de Factores Ambientales y Antrópicos
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.15446/esrj.v29n4.119634Keywords:
wildfire risk, GIS, AHP, Northern Algeria, fire risk, Spatial modeling, Geoenvironmental factors, fire risk modeling, risk mapping (en)riesgo de incendio forestal, Sistema de Información Geográfica, Proceso de Jerarquía Analítica, norte de Argelia, riesgo de incendio, modelamiento espacial, factores ambientales, modelamiento del riesgo de incendio, cambio climático, mapeo de riesgos (es)
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Forest fires represent a significant and escalating environmental threat in Northern Algeria, impacting biodiversity, ecosystem services, regional climate stability, and socioeconomic systems. In recent years, the frequency and intensity of wildfires have increased due to prolonged droughts, rising temperatures, and intensified human activities. This study aims to model and assess wildfire risk by integrating Geographic Information Systems (GIS) with the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), thereby providing a robust spatial decision-support framework for wildfire management. Ten environmental and anthropogenic factors were evaluated: wind speed, temperature, proximity to rivers, solar radiation, proximity to buildings, precipitation, Land Cover/Land Use (LCLU), elevation, proximity to roads, and the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). Each factor was assigned a weight using the AHP method to quantify its influence, and spatial overlay analysis in ArcGIS was applied to generate a comprehensive forest fire risk map. The study area was classified into three risk zones: low (34%), medium (46%), and high (20%), emphasizing the need for targeted interventions in vulnerable regions. Wind speed (0.244) and temperature (0.152) were identified as the most influential factors, while NDVI (0.037) and proximity to roads (0.054) had minimal impact. Despite its relatively low weight, NDVI remains ecologically significant due to its role in influencing vegetation density and fire propagation. The findings highlight the necessity for site-specific prevention strategies, enhanced vegetation management, and continuous monitoring. Furthermore, the study recommends extending the GIS–AHP framework to other regions of Algeria and integrating machine learning techniques to improve predictive accuracy and adaptive wildfire risk management.
Los incendios forestales representan una amenaza ambiental significativa y en aumento en el norte de Argelia que afectan la biodiversidad, los servicios ecosistémicos, la estabilidad climática regional y los sistemas socioeconómicos. En los últimos años, la frecuencia y la intensidad de los incendios forestales han aumentado debido a las sequías prolongadas, el incremento de las temperaturas y la intensificación de las actividades humanas. Este estudio tiene como objetivo modelar y evaluar el riesgo de incendios forestales mediante la integración de los Sistemas de Información Geográfica (SIG) con el Proceso de Jerarquía Analítica (AHP), con el fin de proporcionar un marco robusto de apoyo espacial para la toma de decisiones en la gestión de incendios. Con este fin se evaluaron diez factores ambientales y antropogénicos: velocidad del viento, temperatura, proximidad a ríos, radiación solar, proximidad a edificaciones, precipitación, cobertura y uso del suelo (LCLU), altitud, proximidad a carreteras e índice de vegetación de diferencia normalizada (NDVI). A cada factor se le asignó un peso utilizando el método AHP para cuantificar su influencia, y se aplicó un análisis de superposición espacial en ArcGIS para generar un mapa integral de riesgo de incendios forestales. El área de estudio se clasificó en tres zonas de riesgo: bajo (34%), medio (46%) y alto (20%), con énfasis en la necesidad de intervenciones específicas en las regiones vulnerables. La velocidad del viento (0,244) y la temperatura (0,152) fueron identificadas como los factores más influyentes, mientras que el NDVI (0,037) y la proximidad a carreteras (0,054) tuvieron un impacto mínimo. A pesar de su peso relativamente bajo, el NDVI sigue siendo ecológicamente significativo porque influye en la densidad de la vegetación y la propagación del fuego. Los hallazgos resaltan la necesidad de estrategias de prevención específicas para cada sitio, una mejor gestión de la vegetación y una monitorización continua. Además, el estudio recomienda extender el marco SIG-AHP a otras regiones de Argelia e integrar técnicas de aprendizaje automático para mejorar la precisión predictiva y la gestión adaptativa del riesgo de incendios forestales.
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