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Evaluating total Yet-to-Find hydrocarbon volume in Colombia
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.15446/esrj.v16nSpecial%20issue.120997Keywords:
hydrocarbon resources, Data and hypotheses, basin analysis, sensitivity analysis (en)Downloads
The present work combines estimations of conventional and non-conventional yet-to-find recoverable hydrocarbons in Colombia's 23 sedimentary basins. The work adopts a probabilistic approach using the Monte Carlo statistical method aimed at defining available and trapped resources and comparing such simulation with in situ resources regarding their conventional and non-conventional expression.
A series of considerations and hypotheses support the work's conceptual and procedural framework regarding all the estimations so made. Such hypotheses were statistically based by compiling a series of events tracing a determined pattern which may not always correspond to the geographical reality posed by the hypotheses. The foregoing means that some of the hypotheses could be reconsidered in future estimates; this is why the Excel sheets underlying fresh calculations have been attached so that they can be evaluated in new scenarios.
As well as the resource being produced, the first chapters (2 to 4) present volumetric estimates and expectations regarding news reserves related to conventional potential, i.e. oil, gas and associated gas. These three chapters also try to differentiate between the following concepts: generated resource, original in situ resource and yet-to-find (YTF) resources.
Chapter 5 gives an outline of a systematic exercise orientated towards estimating gas hydrates in Colombia. The estimates were based on information from 28 wells and more than 40,000 km of seismic 2D. The resources did not include the deep basins and Los Cayos basin due to gaps in the information or the poor quality of some available data.
Chapter 6 gives estimates of coalbed methane, supported by figures drawn from cartographic information from carbon occurrences in Colombia, and data regarding gas production in mines in Colombia, as well as Alberta (Canada).
Potential resources associated with tar sands are calculated in Chapter 7. Information of differing nature, age and sources was compiled for this exercise. Estimating potential was based on a map of tar sand occurrences produced from an inventory of areas having manifestations of the resource obtained from available information.
Chapters 8 and 9 deal with results concerning oil and gas in shale; two different but complementary approaches led to establishing this resource‟s great potential in Colombia. The lack of certain geochemical data and in-depth distribution data impeded using conventional techniques for analysing shale oil, oil shale and shale gas. However, the approach was valuable as the working hypotheses were coherent. A conventional analysis of shale gas and shale oil based on well and seismic data led to extending concepts to other basins.
An approach based on well information and data regarding area from other basins around the world led to estimating tight sands (Chapter 10), a resource which is becoming marginal compared to other resources.
One chapter has been devoted to heavy crudes (Chapter 11) for estimating this resource in five sedimentary basins having more occurrences and/or effective production. Well and seismic information as well as approximations of areas were fundamental for such estimate.
Chapter 12 gives a forecast concerning hydrocarbon production in Colombia. Given that the numerical exercise was based on the cointegral time series concept, the lack of historical production data regarding non-conventional resources limited the exercise to conventional gas and oil. The advantage of an approach using cointegral variables was based on analysing production evolution along with other macroeconomic variables maintaining long-term ratio and seasonality.
All the chapters have digital appendixes relating the databases used, the electronic spreadsheets with data fitted for running simulations and/or the results found. Other information such as seismic and well data duly integrated into projects using Kingdom Suite software is attached to the present document.
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