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Geospatial Analysis of Landslide Susceptibility Using Weight of Evidence, Frequency Ratio and Information Value Methods in the Thotne Khola Watershed of Okhaldhunga District, Nepal
Análisis geoespacial de la susceptibilidad a deslizamientos utilizando los métodos de Ponderación de Pruebas, Relación de Frecuencia y Valor de Información en la cuenca de Thotne Khola del distrito de Okhaldhunga, Nepal
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.15446/esrj.v30n(2).123428Keywords:
Landslide Susceptibility, Frequency Ratio, Weight of evidence, Information Value, Thotne Khola (en)Susceptibilidad a deslizamientos, Relación de Frecuencia, Ponderación de Pruebas, Valor de Información, Thotne Khola (es)
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Landslides constitute a significant destructive threat in Nepal's mountainous regions, frequently resulting in fatalities, damage to structures and infrastructure, and disruption of the livelihoods of local inhabitants. This study aims to develop and validate a landslide susceptibility map of the Thotne Khola watershed in the Okhaldhunga District, Nepal. This study used Frequency Ratio (FR), Weights of Evidence (WoE), and Information Value (IV) models to prepare landslide susceptibility maps (LSMs). An inventory map of 234 landslides was created by the interpretation of Google Earth images and fieldwork, thereafter divided into 80% training data and 20% testing data. Fifteen conditioning factors contributing to landslides, including aspect, slope, plan curvature, profile curvature, geology, dominant soil, land cover, rainfall, distance to stream, distance to road, NDVI, relative relief, Sediment Transport Index (STI), Stream Power Index (SPI), and Topographic Wetness Index (TWI), were combined with a training dataset using GIS tools to generate the Landslide Susceptibility Maps (LSMs) for the study area. The area was then classified into five zones of landslide susceptibility: very low, low, moderate, high, and very high. The proportions of the entire area categorized as having very low to very high susceptibility for FR were 21.06%, 20.43%, 20.55%, 19.98%, and 17.99%, respectively; for WoE, they were 13.81%, 25.10%, 29.44%, 24.40%, and 7.25%, respectively; and for IV, they were 11.15%, 22.73%, 29.25%, 28.00%, and 8.87%, respectively. The resulting maps were further confirmed using the area under the curve (AUC) and landslide density index methodologies. The AUC values obtained from three models are 0.909 for FR, 0.902 for IV, and 0.871 for WoE. The result shows that all the models performed strong prediction rates; however, the weight of evidence model has an AUC value less than 0.9. The increased LDI values in the high and very high susceptibility categories further confirm the model's accuracy. The results of this study can assist local government in land use management, disaster preparedness, and mitigation strategies.
Los deslizamientos de tierra constituyen una amenaza destructiva significativa en las regiones montañosas de Nepal, provocando con frecuencia muertes, daños a estructuras e infraestructuras y la interrupción de los medios de vida de los habitantes locales. Este estudio tiene como objetivo desarrollar y validar un mapa de susceptibilidad a deslizamientos de la cuenca Thotne Khola en el distrito de Okhaldhunga, Nepal. Se utilizaron los modelos de Relación de Frecuencia, Ponderación de Pruebas y Valor de Información para elaborar mapas de susceptibilidad a deslizamientos. Se creó un mapa inventario de 234 deslizamientos mediante la interpretación de imágenes de Google Earth y trabajo de campo, que posteriormente fue dividido en un 80% de datos para entrenamiento y un 20% para prueba. Quince factores condicionantes que contribuyen a los deslizamientos, incluyendo orientación, pendiente, curvatura plana, curvatura de perfil, geología, tipo de suelo dominante, cobertura del suelo, precipitación, distancia a cuerpos de agua, distancia a caminos, NDVI, relieve relativo, Índice de Transporte de Sedimentos, Índice de Potencia del Flujo e Índice de Humedad Topográfica, se combinaron con los datos de entrenamiento utilizando herramientas SIG para generar los Mapas de Susceptibilidad a Deslizamientos del área de estudio. El área se clasificó luego en cinco zonas de susceptibilidad a deslizamientos: muy baja, baja, moderada, alta y muy alta. Las proporciones del área total categorizadas con susceptibilidad de muy baja a muy alta para RF fueron 21.06%, 20.43%, 20.55%, 19.98% y 17.99%, respectivamente; para PE, 13.81%, 25.10%, 29.44%, 24.40% y 7.25%, respectivamente; y para VI, 11.15%, 22.73%, 29.25%, 28.00% y 8.87%, respectivamente. Los mapas obtenidos fueron validados mediante las metodologías del área bajo la curva (AUC) y el índice de densidad de deslizamientos. Los valores de AUC obtenidos de los tres modelos son 0.909 para RF, 0.902 para VI y 0.871 para PE. El resultado muestra que todos los modelos presentaron tasas de predicción fuertes; sin embargo, el modelo de pesos de evidencia tiene un valor de AUC inferior a 0.9. Los valores mayores del IDD en las categorías de alta y muy alta susceptibilidad confirman aún más la precisión del modelo. Los resultados de este estudio pueden ayudar a los gobiernos locales en la gestión del uso del suelo, la preparación ante desastres y las estrategias de mitigación.
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