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CO₂ Storage Potential and Uncertainty Analysis of the Upper Assam Basin, India
Potencial de almacenamiento de CO₂ y análisis de incertidumbre en la Cuenca Alta de Assam, India
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.15446/esrj.v30n(2).123713Keywords:
CO₂ storage, CCUS, Upper Assam Basin, Monte Carlo, Sobol’ sensitivity, storage efficiency, Geomechanics (en)almacenamiento de CO₂, CCUS, Cuenca Alta de Assam, Monte Carlo, sensibilidad de Sobol, eficiencia de almacenamiento, geomecánica (es)
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Formation-scale effective CO₂ storage for the Tipam, Barail and Lakadong+Therria units of the Upper Assam Basin, NE India, is evaluated using a volumetric model corrected by formation-specific efficiency factors, Monte Carlo simulation and global Sobol’ sensitivity analysis. Deterministic mean effective capacities are calculated to be 519 Mt, 150 Mt and 28 Mt, respectively, with a cumulative ≈697 Mt CO₂. Probabilistic results show P50 capacities of 541.4 Mt, 148.7 Mt, and 33.9 Mt, respectively, with formation means of 552 Mt, 153 Mt, and 35.2 Mt, and a basin-scale mean ≈740 Mt CO₂. Sobol’ indices show storage efficiency (E) dominates variance (S₁ ≈ 0.65-0.77), followed by porosity and thickness with moderate controls; and CO₂ density with negligible influence. Geomechanical screening indicates required injection pressures of ≈20-25 MPa are well below estimated fracture thresholds of ≈40-50 MPa, providing ~40-45% safety margin.
La capacidad de almacenamiento efectivo de CO₂ a escala de formación para las unidades Tipam, Barail y Lakadong+Therria de la Cuenca Alta de Assam, noreste de la India, se evalúa utilizando un modelo volumétrico corregido por factores de eficiencia específicos de formación, simulaciones de Monte Carlo y análisis global de sensibilidad de Sobol’. Las capacidades efectivas medias deterministas se calcularon en 519 Mt, 150 Mt y 28 Mt, respectivamente, con un total acumulado de aproximadamente 697 Mt de CO₂. Los resultados probabilísticos muestran capacidades P50 de 541,4 Mt, 148,7 Mt y 33,9 Mt, respectivamente, con medias por formación de 552 Mt, 153 Mt y 35,2 Mt, y una media a escala de cuenca de aproximadamente 740 Mt de CO₂. Los índices de Sobol’ muestran que la eficiencia de almacenamiento (E) domina la varianza (S₁ ≈ 0,65–0,77), seguida de la porosidad y el espesor con controles moderados; y la densidad del CO₂ con influencia despreciable. La evaluación geomecánica indica que las presiones de inyección requeridas, de aproximadamente 20–25 MPa, están muy por debajo de los umbrales estimados de fractura de aproximadamente 40–50 MPa, proporcionando un margen de seguridad del 40–45%.
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