Published

2019-07-01

Determination of Urban Earthquake Risk for Kırşehir, Turkey

Determinación del riesgo urbano en caso de un terremoto en Kirsehir, Turquía

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.15446/esrj.v23n3.60255

Keywords:

Máximo Urban area, loss estimation, Kırşehir, Turkey, earthquake (en)
área urbana, estimación de perdidas, Kirsehir, Turquía, terremotos (es)

Downloads

Authors

  • Ercan Isik Bitlis Eren Üniversitesi
  • Coskun Sagir Bitlis Eren Üniversitesi
  • Zuhal Tozlu Bitlis Eren Üniversitesi
  • Umit Salim Ustaoglu Bitlis Eren Üniversitesi

Predicting the outcomes of earthquakes before they occur is one of the fundamental components of modern disaster management. Loss estimation analyses have an important place at the assessment stage of earthquakes and in estimation of losses that earthquakes may lead to. With these analyses, it is possible to access information that is relevant to potential damages and losses. In this paper, loss estimation analyses were carried out by using the earthquake scenario which foresaw a previous earthquake that was experienced in an around Kırşehir which is seismically active and located in the Central Anatolia Region in Turkey. The 1938 Akpınar earthquake which occurred in and around the province of Kırşehir was taken into consideration as an earthquak escenario, and loss estimation analyses were conducted for this earthquake scenario. In this paper, significant contributions will be made for preparation of an earthquake master plan and risk management plan for Kırşehir. Besides, studies on reduction of earthquake losses in the region may utilise these results.

La predicción de los efectos de los terremotos es uno de los componentes principales de la administración moderna de desastres. Los análisis de estimación de perdidas son fundamentales en la etapa de evaluación y en la valoración de los daños que un terremoto podría ocasionar. Con estos análisis es posible evaluar la información que es relevante para los daños y las perdidas potenciales. En este artículo, los análisis de estimación de perdidas se realizaron en el escenario de un terremoto previo en el área de Kirsehir, que es sismicamente activa y se localiza en la Región Central de Anatolia, en Turquía. El terremoto de Akpinar, en 1938, que ocurrió la zona de estudio, se consideró como el escenario del terremoto, y los análisis de estimación de perdidas se realizaron con base a este escenario. Con este estudio, se hace contribuciones significativas para la preparación de un plan maestro de terremotos y un plan de manejo del riesgo para Kirsehir. También los estudios de reducción de perdidas en la región podrían utilizar estos resultados.

References

Ademovic, N., Hrasnica, M. & Oliveira, D.V. (2013). Pushover analysis and failure pattern of a typical masonry residential building in Bosnia and Herzegovina. Engineering Structures, 50, 13-29.

Ansal, A., Akici, A., Cultrera, G., Erdik, M., Pessina, V., Tönük, G. & Ameri, G. (2009). Loss estimation in Istanbul based on deterministic earthquake scenarios of the Marmara Sea region (Turkey).Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering, 29(4), 699-709.

Ataman G., Buket, E. & Çapan U.Z. (1975). The North Anatolia fault zone: a new interpretation as a paleo-benioff zone. Bulletin of the Mineral Research and Exploration Institute of Turkey, 84, 97-102.

Aydemir, A. (2009). Tectonic investigation of Central Anatolia, Turkey, using geophysical data. Journal of Applied Geophysics, 68(3), 321-334.

Bal, İ.E., Crowley, H., Pinho, R. & Gülay, G. (2007). Displacement-based earthquake loss assessment for an earthquake scenario in Istanbul. Journal of Earthquake Engineering, 12(S2), 12-22.

Bal İ.E., Crowley, H., Pinho, R. & Gülay, G. (2008a). Detailed assessment of structural characteristics of Turkish RCbuilding stock for loss assessment models. Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering,28, 914–932.

Bal, İ.E., Crowley H. & Pinho, R. (2008). Displacement-based earthquake loss assessment for an earthquake scenario in Istanbul.Journal of Earthquake Engineering, 12(1), 12 -22.

Bommer, J.J., Spence, R., Erdik, M., Tabuchi, S., Aydinoglu, N., Booth, E., Del Re, D. & Peterken, O. (2002). Development of an earthquake loss model for Turkish catastrophe insurance.Journal of Seismology, 6(3), 431-446.

Bozkurt, E. (2001). Neotectonics of Turkey –a synthesis.Geodinamica Acta (Paris), 14, 3-30.

Büyüksaraç, A., Över, S., Geneş, M. C., Bikçe, M., Kacin, S. & Bektaş, Ö. (2014). Estimating shear wave velocity using acceleration data in Antakya (Turkey). Earth Sciences Research Journal, 18(2), 87-98.

Calvi, G. M., Pinho, R., Magenes, G., Bommer, J. J., Restrepo-Vélez, L. F. & Crowley, H. (2006). Development of seismic vulnerability assessment methodologies over the past 30 years. ISET journal of Earthquake Technology,43(3), 75-104.

Center, M. A. E. (2006). Earthquake risk assessment using MAEviz 2.0: a tutorial. Mid-America Earthquake Center, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, IL.

Coburn, A. & Spence, R. (2002).Earthquake Protection. John Wiley & Sons, Chichester, U. K.

Crowley, H. & Bommer, J.J. (2006). Modelling seismic hazard in earthquake loss models with spatially distributed exposure. Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering, 4, 249–273.

Demircioglu, M.B., Erdik, M., Hancilar, U., Sesetyan, K., Tuzun, C., Yenidogan, C. & Zulfikar, A.C.(2009), Technical Manual - Earthquake Loss Estimation Routine ELERv1.0, Bogazici University, Department of Earthquake Engineering, Istanbul, Turkey, 133pp.

Duzgun, H. S. B., Yucemen, M. S., Kalaycioglu, H. S., Celik, K., Kemec, S., Ertugay, K. & Deniz, A. (2011). An integrated earthquake vulnerability assessment framework for urban areas. Natural Hazards, 59(2), 917-947.

ELER v3.1 (2010). Earthquake Loss Estimation Routine. In Technical Manual and Users Guide, Bogazici University, Department of Earthquake Engineering, Istanbul, Turkey.

Erdik, M., Aydinoglu, N., Fahjan, F., Sesetyan, K., Demircioglu, M., Siyahi, B., Durukal, E., Ozbey, C., Biro, Y., Akman H. & Yuzugullu, O. (2003). Earthquake risk assessment for Istanbul metropolitan area. Earthquake Engineering and Engineering Vibration, 2(1), 1-23.

Erdik, M. & Durukal, E. (2008). Earthquake risk and its mitigation in Istanbul. Natural Hazards, 44(2), 181-197.

Erdik, M., Zülfikar, C., Demircioğlu, M.B., Hancılar, U., Şeşetyan, K. & Kamer, Y. (2010). Earthquake shake mapping and loss assessment applications by Eler v2.0. Geophysical Research Abstracts, 12, EGU2010-14688-3.

Eyidoğan, H. (2003). Tectonic and seismic danger.Fifth National Conference on Earthquake Engineering, Istanbul, Turkey, May, 21-28.

Hadzima-Nyarko, M., Pavić, G. & Lešić, M. (2016). Seismic vulnerability of old confined masonry buildings in Osijek. Croatia. Earthquakes and Structures, 11(4), 629-648.

Hadzima-Nyarko, M., Ivandić, N. & Štefić, T. (2015). Seismic vulnerability of primary schools in the city Osijek. 4. Međunarodniznanstvenisimpozij„GospodarstvoistočneHrvatske–vizija i razvoj.

Hancilar, U., Çaktı, E., Erdik, M., Franco, G.E. & Deodatis, G. (2014). Earthquake vulnerability of school buildings:probabilistic structural fragility analyses. Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering, 67, 169-178.

Hancılar, U., Tuzun, C., Yenidogan, C. & Erdik, M. (2010). ELER software - a new tool for urban earthquake loss assessment. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 10, 2677-2696.

HAZUS-MH (2003): Technical Manual, Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), Washington, DC, USA. http://www.deprem.gov.tr/tr/kategori/deprem-bolgeleri-haritasi-28841, (Last accessed February 2018) http://udim.koeri.boun.edu.tr/zeqdb/, (Last accessed February 2018) http://www.resmigazete.gov.tr/eskiler/2019/03/20190316-12.htm, (Lastaccessed March 2019)

Işık, E., Kutanis, M. & Bal, İ.E. (2017). Loss estimation and seismic risk assessment in Eastern Turkey. Gradevinar, 69(7), 581-592.

Işık, E. (2010). Seismic performance analysis of Bitlis city. Ph.D. Thesis, Institute of Natural Science, SakaryaUniversity, Sakarya, Turkey.

Işık, E. & Kutanis, M. (2015). Determination of local site-specific spectra using probabilistic seismic hazard analysis for Bitlis Province, Turkey. Earth Sciences Research Journal, 19(2), 129-134.

Işık, E., Kutanis, M. & Bal, İ. E. (2016). Displacement of the buildings according to site-specific earthquake spectra. Periodica Polytechnica Civil Engineering, 60(1), 37-43.

Kandilli Observatory and Earthquake Research Institute (KOERI), (2002). Earthquake Risk Assessment for Istanbul Metropolitan Area, Report prepared for American Red Cross and Turkish Red Crescent. Istanbul, Turkey.

Ketin, İ. (1969). On the North Anatolian fault.Bulletin of the Mineral Research and Exploration, 72(1), 1-28.

Ketin, İ. (1976). A comparison between the San Andreas and the North Anatolian Faults. Bulletin of the Geological Society of Turkey, 19, 149-154.

Koçyiğit, A. & Doğan, U. (2016). Strike-slip neotectonic regime and related structures in the Cappadocia region: a case study in the Salanda basin, Central Anatolia, Turkey. Turkish Journal of Earth Sciences, 25(5), 393-417.

Köksal, S. & Göncüoğlu, M.C. (1996).Geology of the İdişDağı - Avanos area (Nevşehir - Central Anatolia).Bulletin of the Mineral Research and Exploration, 119(119), 41-58.

Kürçer, A. & Gökten, Y.E. (2014). Paleoseismological three dimensional virtual photography method, case study: Duru-2012 trench, Tuz Gölü Fault Zone, Central Anatolia, Turkey. Geological Bulletin of Turkey, 57(1), 45-71.

Lednická, M., Kaláb, Z., Hrubesová, E. & Korínek, R. (2006). Contribution to evaluation of technical seismicity effect on buildings-case study. Earth Sciences Research Journal, 10(1), 7-14.

Maden, N., Gelişli, K., Eyüboğlu, Y. & Bektaş, O. (2008). Two-and-three- dimensional crustal thickness of the eastern pontides (NE Turkey). Turkish Journal of Earth Sciences, 18(2), 225-238.

Molina, S., Lang, D.H. & Lindholm, C.D. (2010). SELENA- An open source tool for seismic risk and loss assessment using a logic tree computation procedure. Computers & Geosciences, 36(3), 257-269.

Moradi, M., Delavar, M. R. & Moshiri, B. (2017). A GIS-based multi-criteria analysis model for earthquake vulnerability assessment using Choquet integral and game theory. Natural Hazards, 87(3), 1377-1398.

National Research Council, (1989). Estimating Losses from Future Earthquakes, FEMA-177, Washington DC, 231pp.

Ozdemir, A. & Nalbantcilar, M.T. (2016). Potential settlement due to seismic effects in the residential area of Ilgin (Konya, Turkey). Earth Sciences Research Journal, 20(2), 1-9.

Özer, S. (2016). 1938 Kırşehir earthquake.Journal of Ottoman Legacy Studies,3(5), 99-115

Özmen, B. & Can, H. (2016). Deterministic seismic hazard assessment for Ankara, Turkey.Journal of the Faculty of Engineering and Architecture of Gazi University, 31(1), 9-18.

Peng, Y. (2015). Regional earthquake vulnerability assessment using a combination of MCDM methods. Annals of Operations Research, 234(1), 95-110.

Strasser, F.O., Bommer, J.J., Şeşetyan, K., Erdik, M., Çağnan, Z., Irizarry, J., Goula, X., Lucantoni, A., Sabetta, F., Bal, İ.E., Crowley, H. & Lindholm, C. (2008). A comparative study of European earthquake loss estimation tools for a scenario in Istanbul. Journal of Earthquake Engineering, 12(S2), 246-256.

Şengör, A.M.C., Tüysüz, O., İmren C., Sakınç, M., Eyidoğan, H., Görür, N., Pichon, X.L. & Rangın, C. (2005). The North Anatolian Fault: a new look. Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences, 2005, 33-37.

Temiz, U. (2004). Neotectonics and seismicity of the Kırşehir Region. Ph.D. Thesis, Institute of Natural Science, Ankara University, Ankara, Turkey.

Temiz, U. & Gökten, Y.E. (2011). Coulomb stress analysis of the 19 April, 1938 Ms 6.8 Akpınar earthquake (Kırşehir). Geological Bulletin of Turkey, 54(3), 81-92.

Yavasoglu, H. (2015). Strain rate analysis on the Çankiri-Bingöl segment of the North Anatolian Fault in Turkey. Earth Sciences Research Journal, 19(2), 121-127.

Yıldız, N. (2008). The earthquake risk of the province of Kirsehir.Master Thesis, Institute of Natural Science, Erciyes Universtiy, Kayseri, Turkey.

Yıldırım, C. (2014). Relative tectonic activity assessment of the Tuz Gölü fault zone; Central Anatolia, Turkey. Tectonophysics, 630, 183-192.

Zamora-Hernández, A., González-López, G. I., González-Navarro, F. F. & Ordaz-Schroeder, M. (2013). Software engineering’s contribution to earthquake engineering. Earth Sciences Research Journal, 17(1), 13-16.

Zülfikar, A.C., Fercan, N.Ö.Z., Tunç, S. & Erdik, M. (2017). Real-time earthquake shake, damage, and loss mapping for Istanbul metropolitan area. Earth, Planets and Space, 69(1), 9.

How to Cite

APA

Isik, E., Sagir, C., Tozlu, Z. & Salim Ustaoglu, U. (2019). Determination of Urban Earthquake Risk for Kırşehir, Turkey. Earth Sciences Research Journal, 23(3), 237–247. https://doi.org/10.15446/esrj.v23n3.60255

ACM

[1]
Isik, E., Sagir, C., Tozlu, Z. and Salim Ustaoglu, U. 2019. Determination of Urban Earthquake Risk for Kırşehir, Turkey. Earth Sciences Research Journal. 23, 3 (Jul. 2019), 237–247. DOI:https://doi.org/10.15446/esrj.v23n3.60255.

ACS

(1)
Isik, E.; Sagir, C.; Tozlu, Z.; Salim Ustaoglu, U. Determination of Urban Earthquake Risk for Kırşehir, Turkey. Earth sci. res. j. 2019, 23, 237-247.

ABNT

ISIK, E.; SAGIR, C.; TOZLU, Z.; SALIM USTAOGLU, U. Determination of Urban Earthquake Risk for Kırşehir, Turkey. Earth Sciences Research Journal, [S. l.], v. 23, n. 3, p. 237–247, 2019. DOI: 10.15446/esrj.v23n3.60255. Disponível em: https://revistas.unal.edu.co/index.php/esrj/article/view/60255. Acesso em: 27 dec. 2025.

Chicago

Isik, Ercan, Coskun Sagir, Zuhal Tozlu, and Umit Salim Ustaoglu. 2019. “Determination of Urban Earthquake Risk for Kırşehir, Turkey”. Earth Sciences Research Journal 23 (3):237-47. https://doi.org/10.15446/esrj.v23n3.60255.

Harvard

Isik, E., Sagir, C., Tozlu, Z. and Salim Ustaoglu, U. (2019) “Determination of Urban Earthquake Risk for Kırşehir, Turkey”, Earth Sciences Research Journal, 23(3), pp. 237–247. doi: 10.15446/esrj.v23n3.60255.

IEEE

[1]
E. Isik, C. Sagir, Z. Tozlu, and U. Salim Ustaoglu, “Determination of Urban Earthquake Risk for Kırşehir, Turkey”, Earth sci. res. j., vol. 23, no. 3, pp. 237–247, Jul. 2019.

MLA

Isik, E., C. Sagir, Z. Tozlu, and U. Salim Ustaoglu. “Determination of Urban Earthquake Risk for Kırşehir, Turkey”. Earth Sciences Research Journal, vol. 23, no. 3, July 2019, pp. 237-4, doi:10.15446/esrj.v23n3.60255.

Turabian

Isik, Ercan, Coskun Sagir, Zuhal Tozlu, and Umit Salim Ustaoglu. “Determination of Urban Earthquake Risk for Kırşehir, Turkey”. Earth Sciences Research Journal 23, no. 3 (July 1, 2019): 237–247. Accessed December 27, 2025. https://revistas.unal.edu.co/index.php/esrj/article/view/60255.

Vancouver

1.
Isik E, Sagir C, Tozlu Z, Salim Ustaoglu U. Determination of Urban Earthquake Risk for Kırşehir, Turkey. Earth sci. res. j. [Internet]. 2019 Jul. 1 [cited 2025 Dec. 27];23(3):237-4. Available from: https://revistas.unal.edu.co/index.php/esrj/article/view/60255

Download Citation

CrossRef Cited-by

CrossRef citations13

1. Tao Zhang, Guangyuan Tan, Weihua Bai, Yueqiang Sun, Yuhe Wang, Xiaotian Luo, Hongqing Song, Shuyu Sun. (2023). A Disturbance Frequency Index in Earthquake Forecast Using Radio Occultation Data. Remote Sensing, 15(12), p.3089. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs15123089.

2. Eriko Miyama. (2023). Regional Agriculture and Social Capital after Massive Natural Disasters: The Case of Miyagi Prefecture after the Great East Japan Earthquake. Sustainability, 15(15), p.11725. https://doi.org/10.3390/su151511725.

3. Ercan Işık, Marijana Hadzima-Nyarko, Hüseyin Bilgin, Naida Ademović, Aydın Büyüksaraç, Ehsan Harirchian, Borko Bulajić, Hayri Baytan Özmen, Seyed Ehsan Aghakouchaki Hosseini. (2022). A Comparative Study of the Effects of Earthquakes in Different Countries on Target Displacement in Mid-Rise Regular RC Structures. Applied Sciences, 12(23), p.12495. https://doi.org/10.3390/app122312495.

4. Benyong Wei, Bin Hu, Wenhua Qi. (2023). Fine–Scale Spatiotemporal Distribution Assessment of Indoor Population Based on Single Buildings: A Case in Dongcheng Subdistrict, Xichang, China. Sustainability, 15(9), p.7423. https://doi.org/10.3390/su15097423.

5. Ercan IŞIK, Fırat AKAT. (2023). The Effect of Different Heavy Overhang on Structural Performance in Reinforced Concrete Structures. Bitlis Eren Üniversitesi Fen Bilimleri Dergisi, 12(1), p.261. https://doi.org/10.17798/bitlisfen.1232889.

6. Aydın Büyüksaraç, Ercan Işık, Özcan Bektaş. (2022). A Comparative Evaluation of Earthquake Code Change on Seismic Parameter and Structural Analysis; A case of Turkey. Arabian Journal for Science and Engineering, 47(10), p.12301. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13369-022-07099-4.

7. Fatma ÜLKER PEKER, Ercan IŞIK. (2021). TBDY-2018’deki Yerel Zemin Koşullarının Çelik Yapı Deprem Davranışına Etkisi Üzerine Bir Çalışma. Bitlis Eren Üniversitesi Fen Bilimleri Dergisi, 10(3), p.1125. https://doi.org/10.17798/bitlisfen.915996.

8. Jae-Kwang Ahn, Byeonghak Kim, Bonhwa Ku, Eui-Hong Hwang. (2023). Virtual Scenarios of Earthquake Early Warning to Disaster Management in Smart Cities Based on Auxiliary Classifier Generative Adversarial Networks. Sensors, 23(22), p.9209. https://doi.org/10.3390/s23229209.

9. Fatma İlknur Kara, Yasin Fahjan. (2024). Yer Hareketi Tahmin Modellerinin Deprem Ön Hasar Tahmin Sistemleri’nin Performansına Etkileri: 6 Şubat 2023 Kahramanmaraş Depremi. Türk Deprem Araştırma Dergisi, 6(1), p.123. https://doi.org/10.46464/tdad.1411559.

10. Rabia İzol, Ercan Işık, Fatih Avcil, Musa Hakan Arslan, Enes Arkan, Aydın Büyüksaraç. (2024). Seismic performance of masonry structures after 06 February 2023 earthquakes; site survey and FE modelling approach. Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering, 186, p.108904. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.soildyn.2024.108904.

11. Yuchen Hu, Harvey Cutler, Yihua Mao. (2023). Economic Loss Assessment for Losses Due to Earthquake under an Integrated Building, Lifeline, and Transportation Nexus: A Spatial Computable General Equilibrium Approach for Shelby County, TN. Sustainability, 15(11), p.8610. https://doi.org/10.3390/su15118610.

12. Ercan Işık. (2023). Structural Failures of Adobe Buildings during the February 2023 Kahramanmaraş (Türkiye) Earthquakes. Applied Sciences, 13(15), p.8937. https://doi.org/10.3390/app13158937.

13. Osman Uyanık, Nurten Ayten Uyanık, Nevbahar Ekin. (2024). Innovations in Engineering and Food Science. Advances in Environmental Engineering and Green Technologies. , p.23. https://doi.org/10.4018/979-8-3693-0819-6.ch002.

Dimensions

PlumX

Article abstract page views

814

Downloads

Download data is not yet available.

License

Copyright (c) 2019 Earth Sciences Research Journal

Creative Commons License

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

Earth Sciences Research Journal holds a Creative Commons Attribution license. 

You are free to:

Share — copy and redistribute the material in any medium or format
Adapt — remix, transform, and build upon the material for any purpose, even commercially.
The licensor cannot revoke these freedoms as long as you follow the license terms.

The Earth Sciences Research Journal is the copyright holder for these license attributes.