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Earthquake predictions and scientific forecast: dangers and opportunities for a technical and anthropological perspective
Predicciones y pronósticos científicos de sismos: peligros y oportunidades desde una perspectiva técnica y antropológica
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.15446/esrj.v23n4.77206Keywords:
Earthquake, prediction, prevention, risk reduction (en)Sismo, predicción, prevención, reducción de riesgo (es)
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Supporting earthquake risk management with clear seismic communication may necessitate encounters with various popular misapprehensions regarding earthquake prediction. Drawing on technical data as well as insights from anthropology and economics, this paper addresses common and scientifically-unsupported ideas about earthquake prediction, as well as the state of science-based studies regarding statistical forecasting and physical precursors. The authors reflect on documented social and economic effects of unsubstantiated earthquake predictions, and argue that these may be dangerous but may also present certain opportunities for outreach and education in formal and informal settings. This paper is written in light of the importance that the United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction has placed on coordination and communication within and among diverse organizations and agencies as well as by recent popularity of so-called earthquake prediction in Mexico.
El apoyo de la gestión del riesgo de terremotos con una comunicación sísmica clara requiere incluir la atención de interpretaciones populares erróneas sobre la predicción de sismos. Con base en datos técnicos, así como en percepciones de la antropología y la economía, este artículo discute ideas populares y sin sustento científico sobre la predicción de terremotos, así como el estado del arte de estudios científicos con bases estadísticas y con precursores físicos. Se discuten los efectos sociales y económicos documentados de las predicciones de sismos sin sustento científico para argumentar su peligrosidad; pero también se hacen notar las oportunidades que representan su divulgación y educación en entornos formales e informales. El artículo discute a la luz de la importancia que la Oficina de la Organización de Nacionales Unidas para la Reducción del Riesgo de Desastres ha otorgado a la coordinación y comunicación dentro y entre las diversas organizaciones y agencias, así como a la reciente popularidad de la llamada predicción de terremotos en México.
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