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Effect of climate change on burley tobacco crop calendars
Efecto del cambio climático en los calendarios de cultivo del tabaco burley
Keywords:
Water balance, crop calendar, climate change, agricultural demand modeling, Burley tobacco. (en)Balance hídrico, Cambio climático, Modelación de demanda agrícola, Tabaco Burley. (es)
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In Colombia, tobacco cultivation is an important generator of employment and income for farmers; however it faces different problems as low crop yield compared to other countries; specifically, in the north of the country, where the climatic conditions are less favorable and the productivity is lower than other areas of the country due to low mechanization. In order to improve the tobacco yield per hectare in the municipality of Ovejas, this research aimed to determine the water requirements of burley tobacco cultivation under conditions of climate variability to obtain optimal information for crop calendars. Water requirements of burley tobacco were determined using the crop water requirement equation. This calculation ethod was programmed in Python to automate the generation of maps, developing a tool that allowed a detailed analysis per unit area per week. Based on the results obtained, weeks 17 and 18 of the year (last week of April and first week of May, respectively) are proposed as optimal planting times, since the cycles of crops planted in this period showed precipitation surplus in the initial phase of cultivation, which is a critical phase for their development. Climate change simulation showed that crops must be continuously monitored in order to adapt to new weather conditions.
En Colombia, el cultivo de tabaco es un importante generador de empleo e ingresos para los agricultores; Sin embargo, se enfrenta a diferentes problemas, como el bajo rendimiento de los cultivos en comparación con otros países; específicamente, en el norte del país, donde las condiciones climáticas son menos favorables y la productividad es menor que en otras zonas del país debido a la baja mecanización. Con el fin de mejorar los rendimientos por hectárea del cultivo de tabaco en el municipio de Ovejas, el objetivo de esta investigación fue determinar los requerimientos hídricos del cultivo de tabaco burley bajo condiciones de variabilidad climática para obtener información óptima en las diferentes etapas del cultivo. La determinación de los requerimientos hídricos del cultivo de tabaco burley se llevó a cabo empleando la ecuación de requerimiento hídrico. Este método fue programado en Python para automatizar la generación de mapas, desarrollando una herramienta que permitió realizar un análisis detallado por unidad de área y por semana. A partir de los resultados obtenidos se propone como épocas óptimas de siembra las semanas 17 y 18 del año (última semana de abril y primera semana de mayo, respectivamente), ya que los ciclos de cultivos sembrados en estas épocas presentaron superávit de precipitación en la fase inicial del cultivo, fase crítica para su desarrollo. La simulación de cambio climático mostró que los cultivos deben monitorearse continuamente para adaptarse a las nuevas condiciones climáticas.
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