Correo Electrónico
DNINFOA - SIA
Bibliotecas
Convocatorias
Identidad U.N.
Publicado
Crecimiento económico, empleo y distribución del ingreso en tiempos de pandemia: un análisis de equilibrio general para Colombia.
Economic growth, employment, and income distribution in times of pandemic: A general equilibrium analysis for Colombia.
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.15446/cuad.econ.v40n85.92524Palabras clave:
Covid-19, modelo de equilibrio general computable, crecimiento económico, distribución de los ingresos (es)Covid-19, computable general equilibrium model, economic growth, income distribution (en)
Este artículo cuantifica los efectos sobre la actividad productiva en Colombia que tiene la pandemia por COVID-19 y las medidas de contención, mitigación y recuperación adoptadas para enfrentarla. Además, se estudian los efectos distributivos, considerando distintos tipos de hogares, para analizar su impacto en los sectores más vulnerables de la economía. Para ello, se construyó un modelo CGE que resume el comportamiento de la economía colombiana y permite simular los choques por COVID-19. Se encontró un crecimiento económico de 4,6 % en 2021 que sería insuficiente para que el PIB alcance niveles prepandemia. Los efectos sociales serían devastadores en términos de pobreza, que luego de elevarse en cerca de ocho puntos porcentuales durante 2020, podría seguir aumentando hacia 2021 por efecto de la parcial recuperación de los mercados laborales.
This paper quantifies the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on the productive activity in Colombia and the measures adopted to contain, mitigate, and recover from it. Additionally, distributional effects are studied, taking into consideration different types of households in order to analyse their impact on the most vulnerable sectors of the economy. For this purpose, a CGE model that summarises the behaviour of the Colombian economy and allows for simulation of the COVID-19 shocks is constructed. It found a growth of 4.6% in 2021, which would be insufficient for reaching pre-pandemic GDP levels. The social effects would be devastating in terms of poverty, which after rising by about eight percentage points during 2020, could continue increasing in 2021 due to the partial recovery of labour markets.
Referencias
Ahmad, S., & Akgul, Z. (2017). Using power laws to identify the structural parameters of trade models with firm heterogeneity (Economics Working Paper Series, 2017-05-F). 201705f_firmhet_parameters.pdf (usitc.gov).
Althaus, C. L. (2014). Estimating the reproduction number of ebola virus (EBOV) during the 2014 outbreak in West Africa. PLoS currents, 2(6), https://doi.org/10.1371/currents.outbreaks.91afb5e0f279e7f29e7056095255b288
Anderson, R. M., Heesterbeek, H., Klinkenberg, D., & Hollingsworth, T. D. (2020). How will country-based mitigation measures influence the course of the COVID-19 epidemic? The Lancet, 395, 931-934. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(20)30567-5
Atkenson, A. (2020). What will be the economic impact of COVID-19 in the US? Rough estimates of disease scenarios (NBER Working Paper Series, 26867). http://www.nber.org/papers/w26867
Baldo, V., Bertoncello, C., Cocchio, S., Fonzo, M., Pillon, P., Buja, A., & Baldovin, T. (2016). The new pandemic influenza A/(H1N1)PDM09 virus: Is it really “new”? Journal of Preventive Medicine and Hygiene, 57(1), E19-E22. https://doi.org/10.15167/2421-4248/jpmh2016.57.1.574
Baldwin, R., & Weder, B. (2020). Mitigating the COVID economic crisis. Act fast and do whatever it takes. CEPR Press.
Botero, J. (2012). Desempleo e informalidad en Colombia. Un análisis de equilibrio general computable. En L. Arango & F. Hamman (eds.), El mercado de trabajo en Colombia: hechos, tendencias e instituciones (pp. 795-839). Banco de la República de Colombia.
Chisari, O., Maquieyra, J. A., & Miller, S. J. (2012). Manual sobre modelos de equilibrio general computado para economías de LAC con énfasis en el análisis económico del cambio climático (IDB-TN-445; Notas técnicas). https://bit.ly/2RACYo4
Chughtai, A. A., Seale, H., Islam, M. S., Owais, M., & Macintyre, C. R. (2020). Policies on the use of respiratory protection for hospital health workers to protect from coronavirus disease (COVID-19). International Journal of Nursing Studies, 105, 1-4. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijnurstu.2020.103567
Dixon, P. B., Jerie, M., & Rimmer, M. (2018). Trade theory in computable general equilibrium models. Springer.
Dixon, P. B., & Jorgenson, D. (2012). Handbook of computable general equilibrium modeling. Elsevier.
Dong, E., Du, H., & Gardner, L. (2020). An interactive web-based dashboard to track COVID-19 in real time. The Lancet Infectious Diseases, 20, 533-534. https://doi.org/10.1016/S1473-3099(20)30120-1
Eichenbaum, M. S., Rebelo, S., & Trabandt, M. (2020). The macroeconomics of epidemics (Working Paper Series, 26882). NBER. http://www.nber.org/papers/w26882
Fornaro, L., & Wolf, M. (2020). Covid-19 coronavirus and macroeconomic policy (Working Paper Series, 1168). GSE.
Franco, C., Kuri, P., Álvarez, C., Palacios, E., Nava, M., Betancourt, M., Santos, J. I., & Tapia, R. (2003). Síndrome agudo respiratorio severo. Un panorama mundial de la epidemia. Salud Pública de México, 45(3), 211-220. https://doi.org/10.1590/s0036-36342003000300011
Go, D. S., Lofgren, H., Méndez, F., & Robinson, S. (2015). Estimating parameters and structural change in CGE Models using a bayesian cross-entropy estimation approach (Working Paper, 7174). Policy Research. https://bit.ly/3f2Q45t
Hosoe, N., Gasawa, K., & Hashimoto, H. (2010). Textbook of computable general equilibrium modeling: programming and simulations. Springer.
Johnson, H. C., Gossner, C. M., Colzani, E., Kinsman, J., Alexakis, L., Beauté, J., Würz, A., Tsolova, S., Bundle, N., & Ekdahl, K. (2020). Potential scenarios for the progression of a COVID-19 epidemic in the European Union and the European Economic Area, March 2020. Euro Surveillance, 25(9), 1-5. https://doi.org/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2020.25.9.2000202
Katriel, G., Yaari, R., Huppert, A., Roll, U., & Stone, L. (2011). Modelling the initial phase of an epidemic using incidence and infection network data: 2009 H1N1 pandemic in Israel as a case study. Journal of the Royal Society Interface, 8(59), 856-867. https://doi.org/10.1098/rsif.2010.0515
Keogh, M. R., & Smith, R. D. (2008). The economic impact of SARS. How does the reality match the predictions? Health Policy, 88(1), 110-120. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.healthpol.2008.03.003
Knittel, N., Jury, M. W., Bednar-Friedl, B., Bachner, G., & Steiner, A. K. (2020). A global analysis of heat realted labour productivity losses under climate change – implications for Germany’s foreign trade. Climatic Change, 160(2), 251-269.
Lin, Q., Zhao, S., Gao, D., Lou, Y., Yang, S., Musa, S. S., Wang, M. H., Cai, Y., Wang, W., Yang, L., & He, D. (2020). A conceptual model for the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak in Wuhan, China with individual reaction and governmental action. International Journal of Infectious Diseases, 93, 211-216. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijid.2020.02.058
Liu, Y., Gayle, A. A., Wilder-Smith, A., & Rocklöv, J. (2020). The reproductive number of COVID-19 is higher compared to SARS coronavirus. Journal of Travel Medicine, 27(2), 1-4. https://doi.org/10.1093/jtm/taaa021
McKibbin, W., & Roshen, F. (2020). The global macroeconomic impacts of COVID-19. Seven scenarios (Working Paper, 19/2020). CAMA. https://bit.ly/3b866tB
Melitz, M. (2003). The impact of trade on intra-industry reallocations and aggregate industry productivity. Econometrica, 71(6), 1695-1725.
Meng, S., & Siriwardana, M. (2016). Assessing the economic impact of tourism. A computable general equilibrium modelling approach. Springer.
Nam, K. M., Zhang, X., Saikawa, E., & Zhang, X. (2019). Health effects of ozone and particulate matter pollution in China: A province-level CGE analysis. The Annals of Regional Science, 63(2), 269-293.
Nicola, M., Alsafi, Z., Sohrabi, C., Kerwan, A., Al-Jabir, A., Iosifidis, C., Agha, M., & Agha, R. (2020). The socio-economic implications of the coronavirus pandemic (COVID-19). A review. International Journal of Surgery, 78, 185-193. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijsu.2020.04.018
Perali, F., & Scandizzo, P. L. (2018). The new generation of computable general equilibrium models: Modeling the economy. Springer.
Perfetti, J. J., Botero, J., Oviedo, S., Forero, D., Higuera, S., Correa, M., & García, J. (2017). Política comercial agrícola: nivel, costos y efectos de la protección en Colombia. Eafit.
Rodríguez, A. J., Gallego, V., Escalera, J. P., Méndez, C. A., Zambrano, L. I., Franco, C., Suárez, J. A., Rodríguez, H. D., Balbin, G. J., Savio, E., Risquez, A., & Cimerman, S. (2020). COVID-19 in Latin America. The implications of the first confirmed case in Brazil. Travel Medicine and Infectious Disease, 35, 1-3. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tmaid.2020.101613
Scandizzo, P. L., Pierleoni, M. R., & Cufari, D. (2018). A CGE model for productivity and investment in Kenya. En The new generation of computable general equilibrium models (pp. 119-143). Springer.
Shen, B., Yi, X., Sun, Y., Bi, X., Du, J., Zhang, C., Quan, S., Zhang, F., Sun, R., Qian, L., Ge, W., Liu, W., Liang, S., Chen, H., Zhang, Y., Li, J., Xu, J., He, Z., Chen, B., … Guo, T. (2020). Proteomic and metabolomic characterization of COVID-19 patient sera. Cell Press, 182(1), P59-72.e15. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cell.2020.05.032
Suescún, R., & Steiner, R. (2017). Un modelo de equilibrio general dinámico para la evaluación de la política económica en Colombia. Fedesarrollo.
Thompson, A. K., Juniper, E., & Meltzer, E. O. (2000). Quality of life in patients with allergic rhinitis. Annals of Allergy, Asthma & Immunology, 85(5), 338-348.
Tuite, A. R., Fisman, D. N., & Greer, A. L. (2020). Mathematical modelling of COVID-19 transmission and mitigation strategies in the population of Ontario, Canada. Cmaj, 192(19), E497–E505. https://doi.org/10.1503/cmaj.200476
Yu, K. D. S., & Aviso, K. B. (2020). Modelling the economic impact and ripple effects of disease outbreaks. Process Integration and Optimization for Sustainability, 4, 183-186. https://doi.org/10.1007/s41660-020-00113-y
Cómo citar
APA
ACM
ACS
ABNT
Chicago
Harvard
IEEE
MLA
Turabian
Vancouver
Descargar cita
Licencia
Derechos de autor 2021 Cuadernos de EconomíaCuadernos de Economía a través de la División de Bibliotecas de la Universidad Nacional de Colombia promueve y garantiza el acceso abierto de todos sus contenidos. Los artículos publicados por la revista se encuentran disponibles globalmente con acceso abierto y licenciados bajo los términos de Creative Commons Atribución-No_Comercial-Sin_Derivadas 4.0 Internacional (CC BY-NC-ND 4.0), lo que implica lo siguiente:
