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Uncertainty regarding instantaneous discharge obtained from stage-discharge rating curves built with low density discharge measurements
Incertidumbre en caudales instantáneos obtenidos con curvas nivel-caudal construidas con una baja densidad de aforos líquidos
Keywords:
Uncertainty, error, stage–discharge relationship, rating curve, fluid measurement, regression (en)incertidumbre, error, curva nivel-caudal, curva de gastos, aforos, regresión (es)
This work concerned uncertainty analysis for constructing stage-discharge rating curves to estimate error or uncertainty regarding calculated discharges, considering different discharge measurement availability scenarios. A methodology was used for creating artificial samples of discharge measurements from real data observed in the field and the effect of variation on measurement quantity and distribution concerning instantaneous discharge uncertainty was then studied. The results indicated that discharge uncertainty mostly depends on the number of river discharge measurements used for rating curve calibration and on the extent of extrapolation outside the range of measured river water levels. This research found that uncertainty regarding instantaneous discharges calculated for the area within average level values could be as high as 14% when the rating curve was calibrated with few measurements. Uncertainty can reach 20% and 60% for high and low water level values, respectively, or even higher depending on the extent of rating curve extrapolation. This work established that 35 discharge measurements for rating curve calibration were needed to fulfill World Meteorological Organization standards concerning discharge defined for low water level values.
En el presente trabajo se realizó un análisis de incertidumbre del proceso de construcción de la curva nivel-caudal, con el fin de estimar el error o incertidumbre de los caudales obtenidos considerando diversos escenarios de disponibilidad de aforos. Se implementó una metodología para generar muestras artificiales de aforos a partir de datos reales observados en campo y estudiar el efecto de la cantidad y distribución de las mediciones sobre la incertidumbre de los caudales instantáneos. Los resultados obtenidos indican que la incertidumbre de los caudales depende principalmente de la cantidad de aforos utilizados para la calibración de la curva nivel-caudal y del grado de extrapolación con respecto a los niveles aforados. Para los casos estudiados se encontró que cuando la curva es calibrada con una baja cantidad de aforos la incertidumbre de los caudales instantáneos en la zona de niveles medios puede llegar hasta un 14%. En la zona de niveles máximos y mínimos la incertidumbre puede llegar hasta el 20% y 60% respectivamente, valores que pueden incrementarse dependiendo del margen de extrapolación. En este orden de ideas, se estableció que en el caso de los caudales instantáneos para la zona de niveles mínimos es necesario disponer de al menos 35 aforos para la calibración de la curva, con el objetivo de cumplir los estándares mínimos recomendados por la Organización Meteorológica Mundial (OMM).
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References
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Copyright (c) 2012 Juan Felipe Martínez Plata, Efraín Antonio Domínguez Calle, Hebert Gonzalo Rivera
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