Publicado

2021-11-01

Será a dinâmica Ichimoku eficiente? Uma evidência nos mercados de ações

IS THE ICHIMOKU METHOD EFFICIENT? EVIDENCE FROM STOCK MARKETS

¿SERÁ LA DINÁMICA ICHIMOKU EFICIENTE? UNA EVIDENCIA EN LOS MERCADOS BURSÁTILES

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.15446/innovar.v32n84.99677

Palavras-chave:

análise técnica, chikou span, Ichimoku, índice de Sharpe, mercados de ações (pt)
Technical analysis, chikou span, Ichimoku, Sharpe index, stock market (en)
análisis técnico, chikou span, Ichimoku, índice de Sharpe, mercado de acciones (es)

Autores

este artigo visa contribuir para o aumento do conhecimento do método de negociação Ichimoku, através de evidências teórico-empíricas sobre a capacidade preditiva dessa dinâmica de investimento. Apesar de essa dinâmica de investimento ter aparecido no Japão na década de 1930, só nos últimos anos começou a ganhar relevância para os investidores e académicos fora do Japão, existindo ainda uma lacuna na existência de trabalhos de investigação académica. Na persecução desse objetivo, estudaram-se cinco índices de mercados de capitais de diferentes zonas geográficas, tendo sido analisadas 26.295 cotações diárias, testando-se diferentes estratégias de negociação baseadas nas linhas Ichimoku. As estratégias de negociação produziram um conjunto de 22.083 sinais de negociação, possibilitando avaliar a capacidade preditiva e performance do sistema de negociação Ichimoku. O trabalho permitiu concluir que a dinâmica de negociação Ichimoku fornece sinais de tendências de negociação, sendo que as estratégias implementadas permitem criar valor para os investidores. Conclui-se também que a dinâmica Ichimoku apoia as decisões de investimento e possibilita que os investidores reajam rapidamente no mercado bearish, sendo útil para sinalizar tendências e revertê-las. A estratégia baseada na linha chikou span mostrou ser a mais rentável e a que propicia melhor remuneração por acréscimo de risco.

This paper seeks to contribute to the understanding of the Ichimoku trading method by providing empirical and theoretical evidence on the predictive capacity of this investment dynamics. Although Ichimoku emerged in Japan in the 1930s, it was only until recent years that it began to draw the attention of investors and scholars outside Japan, which explains the existing gap in academic research production on this approach. In an attempt to bridge such a gap, this work studies five capital market indices from different geographical areas. A total of 26,295 daily stock quotes were examined, testing different trading strategies based on the
Ichimoku lines. Reviewed trading strategies produced a set of 22,083 trading signals, which made it possible to evaluate Ichimoku’s predictive
ability and performance. Our findings show that this method provides key signs on commercial trends and that its related strategies allow creating value for investors. It is also concluded that Ichimoku dynamics support investment decisions and enable investors to react quickly in the face of bearing markets, thus being useful to point out trends and reverse them if necessary. In addition, the strategy based on the so-called chikou span line turned out to be the most profitable and the one that provides the best return for greater risk.

El artículo tiene el propósito de aportar al aumento del conocimiento del método de negociación Ichimoku, por medio de evidencia teórico-empírica acerca de la capacidad predictiva de esta dinámica de inversión. Si bien esta dinámica de inversión haya surgido en Japón en la década de 1930, solo en los últimos años los inversionistas y académicos fuera de Japón le han dado relevancia. Para lograr tal objetivo, se estudiaron cinco índices de mercados capitales de diferentes áreas geográficas y se analizaron 26.295 cotizaciones diarias, probándose distintas estrategias de negociación basadas en las líneas Ichimoku. Las estrategias de negociación produjeron un conjunto de 22.083 señales de negociación, lo que posibilita medir la capacidad predictiva y el desempeño del sistema de negociación Ichimoku. El trabajo permitió concluir que la dinámica de negociación Ichimoku brinda señales de tendencias de negociación, siendo
que las estrategias implementadas permiten crear valor para los inversionistas. Se concluye también que la dinámica Ichimoku apoya las decisiones
de inversión y posibilita que los inversionistas actúen rápidamente en el mercado bajista (bearish market), siendo útil para indicar tendencias y revertirlas. La estrategia basada en la línea chikou span (lapso de retraso) mostró ser la más rentable y la que propicia mejor remuneración por aumento
de riesgo.

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Como Citar

APA

Gomes Almeida, L. A. . (2022). Será a dinâmica Ichimoku eficiente? Uma evidência nos mercados de ações. Innovar, 32(84), 41–56. https://doi.org/10.15446/innovar.v32n84.99677

ACM

[1]
Gomes Almeida, L.A. 2022. Será a dinâmica Ichimoku eficiente? Uma evidência nos mercados de ações. Innovar. 32, 84 (abr. 2022), 41–56. DOI:https://doi.org/10.15446/innovar.v32n84.99677.

ACS

(1)
Gomes Almeida, L. A. . Será a dinâmica Ichimoku eficiente? Uma evidência nos mercados de ações. Innovar 2022, 32, 41-56.

ABNT

GOMES ALMEIDA, L. A. . Será a dinâmica Ichimoku eficiente? Uma evidência nos mercados de ações. Innovar, [S. l.], v. 32, n. 84, p. 41–56, 2022. DOI: 10.15446/innovar.v32n84.99677. Disponível em: https://revistas.unal.edu.co/index.php/innovar/article/view/99677. Acesso em: 19 out. 2024.

Chicago

Gomes Almeida, Luís António. 2022. “Será a dinâmica Ichimoku eficiente? Uma evidência nos mercados de ações”. Innovar 32 (84):41-56. https://doi.org/10.15446/innovar.v32n84.99677.

Harvard

Gomes Almeida, L. A. . (2022) “Será a dinâmica Ichimoku eficiente? Uma evidência nos mercados de ações”, Innovar, 32(84), p. 41–56. doi: 10.15446/innovar.v32n84.99677.

IEEE

[1]
L. A. . Gomes Almeida, “Será a dinâmica Ichimoku eficiente? Uma evidência nos mercados de ações”, Innovar, vol. 32, nº 84, p. 41–56, abr. 2022.

MLA

Gomes Almeida, L. A. . “Será a dinâmica Ichimoku eficiente? Uma evidência nos mercados de ações”. Innovar, vol. 32, nº 84, abril de 2022, p. 41-56, doi:10.15446/innovar.v32n84.99677.

Turabian

Gomes Almeida, Luís António. “Será a dinâmica Ichimoku eficiente? Uma evidência nos mercados de ações”. Innovar 32, no. 84 (abril 1, 2022): 41–56. Acessado outubro 19, 2024. https://revistas.unal.edu.co/index.php/innovar/article/view/99677.

Vancouver

1.
Gomes Almeida LA. Será a dinâmica Ichimoku eficiente? Uma evidência nos mercados de ações. Innovar [Internet]. 1º de abril de 2022 [citado 19º de outubro de 2024];32(84):41-56. Disponível em: https://revistas.unal.edu.co/index.php/innovar/article/view/99677

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