Ensayos de Economía

The purpose of the paper is to stablish the variables that affect the dynamics of Colombian violence showing the relations encountered between them; and to state based on the econometric evidence found what could be called "The provisional foundations for a theory to explain violence cycles in Colombia~

The first part is methodological; it discusses the three well known econometric approaches for modeling business cycles: the traditional approach (trend stationay), the alternative one (difference stationary), and the Beveridge and Nelson (B&N) decomposition of economic time series wich is the finally selected to obtain two types of violence for Colombia: permanent and transitory one.