Deuda pública y sostenibilidad fiscal en Colombia: análisis mediante funciones de reacción fiscal

Publicado

2022-08-10

Deuda pública y sostenibilidad fiscal en Colombia: análisis mediante funciones de reacción fiscal

Public Debt and Fiscal Sustainability in Colombia: Analysis Using Fiscal Reaction Functions

Palabras clave:

sostenibilidad fiscal, función de reacción fiscal, tasa de interés endógena (es)
fiscal sustainability, fiscal reaction function, endogenous interest rate (en)

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Autores/as

Carlos Andrés Zapata Quimbayo Universidad Nacional de Colombia https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3337-0182
Raúl Alberto Chamorro Narváez Universidad Nacional de Colombia https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9160-3664

Resumen (es)
Resumen (en)

En este artículo se evalúa la sostenibilidad fiscal en Colombia mediante la utilización de tres metodologías diferentes: pruebas de estacionariedad; estimación de funciones de reacción fiscal —lineal y no lineal— por mínimos cuadrados en dos etapas y por el método generalizado de momentos; y cálculo del indicador sintético de sostenibilidad fiscal propuesto por Mackiewicz-Łyziak y Łyziak, (2019). En el cálculo de este indicador se incorpora el efecto de la tasa de interés de la deuda, la cual se considera como una variable endógena, así como se evalúa la respuesta de la tasa de interés frente a variaciones en el nivel de deuda. Los resultados, aunque muestran el cumplimiento de algunas de las condiciones de sostenibilidad para Colombia hasta el año 2019, también resaltan el riesgo que representa el alto nivel de endeudamiento que alcanzó el país en 2020, producto de la reciente crisis de la pandemia del Covid-19.

In this article, we evaluate fiscal sustainability in Colombia by using three different methodologies: stationarity
tests; estimation of fiscal reaction functions (linear and non-linear) applying the two-stage least squares and the generalized method of moments; and applying the synthetic indicator of fiscal sustainability proposed by Mackiewicz-Łyziak and Łyziak, (2019). To estimate this indicator, we incorporate the effect of the interest rate on the debt, which is considered as an endogenous variable, and we evaluate the response of the interest rate to changes on the level of debt. Results, although they show the fulfillment of some of the sustainability conditions for Colombia until 2019, they also highlight the risk represented by the high level of indebtedness that the country reached in 2020, because of the recent crisis of the Covid-19 pandemic.

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