Published

2009-09-01

A review of electricity market modelling tools

Revisión de herramientas aplicadas al modelamiento de mercados de electricidad

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.15446/ing.investig.v29n3.15185

Keywords:

electricity market, market modelling, deregulation (en)
mercados de electricidad, modelamiento de mercados, desregulación (es)

Authors

  • Sandra Milena Londoño Hernández Universidad del Valle
  • Carlos Arturo Lozano Moncada Universidad del Valle

Deregulating electricity markets around the world in the search for efficiency has introduced competition into the electricity marketing and generation business. Studying interactions amongst the participants has thus acquired great importance for regulators and market participants for analysing market evolution and suitably defining their bidding strategies. Different tools have therefore been used for modelling competitive electricity markets during the last few years. This paper presents an analytical review of the bibliography found regarding this subject; it also presents the most used tools along with their advantages and disadvantages. Such analysis was done by comparing the models used, identifying the main market characteristics such as market structure, bid structure and kind of bidding. This analysis concluded that the kind of tool to be used mainly depends on a particular study’s goal and scope.

La desregulación de los mercados de electricidad alrededor del mundo, en la búsqueda de la eficiencia, ha introducido competencia en los sectores de comercialización y generación de energía. Por esta razón, ha adquirido gran importancia, para reguladores y oferentes, estudiar la interacción de los agentes competitivos para analizar la evolución del mercado y definir adecuadamente estrategias de ofertamiento. Por lo tanto, en los últimos años se han utilizado diferentes herramientas para modelar los mercados de electricidad competitivos; este artículo presenta una revisión analítica de la bibliografía encontrada en el tema, en la cual se presentan las herramientas más utilizadas, además de sus ventajas y desventajas. Para realizar este análisis se hicieron comparaciones entre los modelos utilizados en cada herramienta, identificando las principales características del mercado, tales como esquema de mercado, estructura de las ofertas, tipo de subasta, entre otras. De este análisis se concluye que el tipo de herramienta a utilizar depende en gran medida del objetivo y alcance que se busca con el estudio.

References

Arango, S., Dyner, I., Larsen, E. R., Lessons from deregulation: Understanding electricity markets in South America., Utilities Policy, Vol. 14, No. 3, Sep. 2006, pp. 196-207.

Barquín, J., Vázquez, M., Cournot equilibrium calculation in power networks: an optimization in approach with price response computation., IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, Vol. 23, No. 2, May., 2008, pp. 317-326.

Bompard, E., Lu, W., Napoli, R., Network constraint impacts on the competitive electricity markets under supply-side strategic bidding., IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, Vol. 21, No. 1, Feb., 2006, pp. 160-170.

Bompard, E., Ma, Y., Ragazzi, E., Microeconomic analysis of the physical constrained markets: game theory application to competitive electricity markets., 2006. Disponible en http://www.hermesricerche.it/

Conejo, A.J., Contreras, J., Espínola, R., Plazas, M. A., Forecasting electricity prices for a day-ahead pool-based electric energy market., International Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 21, No. 3, Jul-Sep. 2005, pp. 435-462.

Conejo, A. J., Plazas, M. A., Espínola, R., Molina, A. B., Day-Ahead electricity price forecasting using the wavelet transform and ARIMA models., IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, Vol. 20, No. 2, May., 2005, pp. 1035-1042.

Contreras, J., Espínola, R., Nogales, F., Conejo, A. J., ARIMA Models to predict next-day electricity prices., IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, Vol. 18, No. 3, Aug., 2003, pp. 1014-1020.

Correia, P. F., Overbye, T. J., Hiskens, I. A., Searching for noncooperative equilibria in centralized electricity markets., IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, Vol. 18, No. 4, Nov., 2003, pp. 1417-1424.

Crespo Cuaresma, J., Hlouskova, J., Kossmeier, S., Obersteiner, M., Forecasting electricity spot-prices using linear univariate time-series models., Applied Energy, Vol. 77, No. 1, Jan., 2004, pp. 87-106.

David, A. K., Dispatch methodologies for open access transmission systems., IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, Vol. 13, No. 1, Feb. 1998, pp. 46-53.

David, A. K., Wen, F., Strategic bidding in competitive electricity markets: a literature survey., IEEE Power Engineering Society Summer Meeting, Seattle, WA, USA, 2000, Vol 4, pp. 2168-2173.

Day, C. J., Hobbs, B. F., Pang, J.-S., Oligopolistic competition in power networks: a conjectured supply function approach., IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, Vol. 17, No. 3, Aug., 2002, pp. 597-607.

De la Torre, S., Conejo, A. J., Contreras, J., Finding multiperiod Nash equilibria in pool-based electricity markets., IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, Vol. 19, No. 1, Feb., 2004, pp. 643-65.

Ferrero, R. W., Rivera, J. F., Shahidehpour, M., Application of games with incomplete information for pricing electricity in deregulated power pools., IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, Vol. 13, No. 1, Feb., 1998, pp. 184-189.

Ferrero, R. W., Shahidehpour, M., Ramesh, V. C., Transaction analysis in deregulated power systems using game theory., IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, Vol. 12, No. 3, Aug., 1997, pp. 1340-1347.

Gao, F., Guan, X., Cao, X. R., Papalexopoulos, A., Forecasting power market clearing price and quantity using a neural network method., IEEE Power Engineering Society Summer Meeting, Vol. 4, 2000, pp. 2183-2188.

García Alcalde, A., Ventosa, M., Rivier, M., Ramos, A., Relaño, G., Fitting electricity market models. A conjectural variations approach., 14th PSCC, Sevilla, Session 12, Paper 3, 24-28 June 2002.

Garcia, R. C., Contreras, J., Van Akkeren, M., Garcia, J. B. C., A GARCH Forecasting model to predict day-ahead electricity prices., IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, Vol. 20, No. 2, May., 2005, pp. 867-874.

Green, R. J., Newbery D. M., Competition in the British electricity spot market., The Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 100, No. 5, Oct., 1992, pp. 929-953.

Guo, J.-J, Luh, P., B., Selecting input factors for clusters of Gaussian radial basis function networks to improve market clearing price prediction., IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, Vol. 18, No. 2, May., 2003, pp. 665-672.

Hao, S., A study of basic bidding strategy in clearing pricing auctions., IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, Vol. 15, No. 3, Aug., 2000, pp. 975-980.

Hasan, E., Galiana, F. D., Conejo, A. J., Electricity markets cleared by merit order-Part I: finding the market outcomes supported by pure strategy nash equilibria., IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, Vol. 23, No. 2, May., 2008, pp. 361-371.

Hasan, E., Galiana, F. D., Electricity markets cleared by merit order-Part II: strategic offers and market power., IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, Vol. 23, No. 2, May., 2008, pp. 372-379.

Hobbs, B. F., Linear complementary models of Nash-Cournot competition in bilateral and POOLCO power markets., IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, Vol. 16, No. 2, May., 2001, pp. 194-202.

Hobbs, B. F., Metzler, C. B., Pang, J.-S., Strategic gaming analysis for electric power systems: An MPEC approach., IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, Vol. 15, No. 2, May., 2000, pp. 638-645.

Holmberg, P., Unique supply function equilibrium with capacity constraints., Energy Economics, Vol.30, No.1, Jan., 2008, pp. 148-172.

Hong, Y.-Y., Hsiao, C.-Y., Locational marginal price forecasting in deregulated electricity markets using artificial intelligence., IEE Proceedings of Generation, Transmission and Distribution, Vol. 149, No. 5, Sep., 2002, pp. 621-626.

Jing-Yuan, W., Smeers, Y., Spatial oligopolistic electricity models with cournot generators and regulated transmission prices., Operations Research, Vol. 47, No. 1, Jan. - Feb., 1999, pp. 102-112.

Kim, C., Yu, I.-K., Song, Y. H., Prediction of system marginal price of electricity using wavelet transform analysis., Energy Conversion and Management, Vol. 43, No. 14, Sep., 2002, pp. 1839-1851.

Klemperer, P. D., Meyer, M. A., Supply function equilibria in oligopoly under uncertainty., Econometrica, Vol. 57, No. 6, Nov., 1989, pp. 1243-1277.

Lamont, J.W., Rajan, S., Strategic bidding in an energy brokerage., IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, Vol. 12, No. 4, Nov., 1997, pp. 1729-1733.

Li, G., Liu, C.-C., Lawarrée, J., Gallanti, M., Venturini, A., State-of-the-art of electricity price forecasting., International Symposium CIGRE/IEEE PES, 2005, pp. 110-119.

Li, T., Shahidehpour, M., Strategic bidding of transmission-constrained GENCOs with incomplete information., IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, Vol. 20, No. 1, Feb., 2005, pp. 437-447.

Londoño, S., Desarrollo de un modelo para el análisis del mercado de electricidad Colombiano., tesis presentada a la Universidad del Valle, Cali-Colombia, para optar al grado de Master en Ingeniería, 2004.

López de Haro, S., Sánchez Martín, P., De la Hoz Ardiz, J. E., Fernández Caro, J., Estimating conjectural variations for electricity market models., European Journal of Operational Research, Vol. 181, No. 3, Sep., 2007, pp. 1322-1338.

Lu, X., Dong, Z. Y., Li, X., Electricity market price spike forecast with data mining techniques., Electric Power Systems Research, Vol. 73, No. 1, Jan., 2005, pp. 19-29.

Madrigal, M., Quintana, V. H., Using optimization models and techniques to implement electricity auctions., IEEE Power Engineering Society Winter Meeting, Vol. 2, Jan. 2000, pp. 897-902.

Nash, J. F., Non-cooperative games., The Annals of Mathematics, 2nd Ser., Vol. 54, No. 2, Sep., 1951, pp. 286-295.

Ni, E., Luh, P. B., Forecasting power market clearing price and its discrete PDF using a Bayesian-based classification method., IEEE Power Engineering Society Winter Meeting, Columbus, OH, USA, Vol. 3, 2001, pp. 1518-1523.

Nogales, F. J., Conejo, A. J., Electricity price forecasting through transfer function models., Journal of the Operational Research Society, Vol. 57, No. 4, Apr., 2006, pp. 350-356.

Nogales, F. J., Contreras, J., Conejo, A. J., Espínola, R., Forecasting nextday electricity prices by time series models., IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, Vol. 17, No. 2, May., 2002, pp. 342-348.

Otero Novas, I., Meseguer, C., Batle, C., Alba, J. J., A simulation model for a competitive generation market., IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, Vol. 15, No. I, Feb., 2000, pp. 250-256.

Peng, T., Tomsovic, K., Congestion influence on bidding strategies in an electricity market., IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, Vol. 18, No. 3, Aug., 2003, pp. 1054-1061.

Philipson, L., Willis, H. L., Understanding Electric Utilities and De-Regulation., Second Edition, Taylor & Francis Group (ed.), Boca Raton, London, New York, 2006.

Pino, R., Parreno, J., Gómez, A., Priore, P., Forecasting nextday price of electricity in the Spanish energy market using artificial neural networks., Engineering Applications of Artificial Intelligence, Vol. 21, No. 1, Feb., 2008, pp. 53-62.

Ramos, A., Ventosa, M., Rivier, M., Modeling competition in electric energy markets by equilibrium constraints., Utilities Policy Vol. 7, No. 4, Feb., 1998, pp. 233-242.

Richter, C. W., Sheblé, G. B., Genetic algorithm evolution of utility bidding strategies for the competitive marketplace., IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, Vol. 13, No. 1, Feb., 1998, pp. 256-261.

Rodriguez, C. P., Anders, G. J., Energy price forecasting in the Ontario competitive power system market., IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, Vol. 19, No. 1, Feb., 2004, pp. 366-374.

Rudnick, H., Latin American deregulation processes / Latin American Experience., IEEE Power Engineering Review, Vol. 18, No. 12, December 1998, pp. 10-12

Ruiz, C., Conejo, A.J., García-Bertrand, R., Some analytical results pertaining to Cournot models for short-term electricity markets., Electric Power Systems Research, Vol. 78, No. 10, Oct., 2008, pp. 1672-1678.

Song, H., Liu, C.-C., Lawarrée, J., Dahlgren, R. W., Optimal electricity supply bidding by Markov decision process., IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, Vol. 15, No. 2, May., 2000, pp. 618-624.

Song, H., Liu, C.-C., Lawarrée, J., Decision making of an electricity supplier's bid in a spot market., IEEE Power Engineering Society Summer Meeting, Edmonton, Alta, Canada, Vol. 2, 1999, pp. 692-696.

Szkuta, B. R., Sanabria, L. A., Dillon, T. S., Electricity price short-term forecasting using artificial neural networks. IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, Vol. 14, No. 3, Aug., 1999, pp. 851-857.

Tong, X., Wang, J., Yang, H., Deng, X., A dynamic bidding model of power markets involving transmission constraints and bidding bounded constraints., IEEE Power Engineering Society General Meeting (PES GM 2007), Tampa, Florida USA, 24-28 June 2007.

Ventosa, M., Baíllo, Á., Ramos, A., Rivier, M., Electricity market modeling trends., Energy Policy, Vol. 33, No. 7, May., 2005, pp. 897-913.

Visudhiphan, P., Ilic, M. D., Dynamic games-based modeling of electricity markets., IEEE Power Engineering Society Winter Meeting, New York, USA, Vol. 1, 1999, pp. 274-281.

Wang, A. J., Ramsay, B., A neural network based estimator for electricity spot-pricing with particular reference to weekend and public holidays., Neurocomputing, Vol. 23, No. 1-3, Dec., 1998, pp. 47-57.

Wang, L., Mazumdar, M., Bailey, M. D., Valenzuela, J., Oligopoly models for market price of electricity under demand uncertainty and unit reliability., European Journal of Operational Research, Vol. 181, No. 3, Sep., 2007, pp. 1309-1321.

Weber, J. D., Overbye, T. J., A two-level optimization problem for analysis of market bidding strategies., IEEE Power Engineering Society Summer Meeting, Edmonton, Canada, Vol. 2, 1999, pp. 682-687.

Weber, J. D., Overbye, T. J., An individual welfare maximization algorithm for electricity markets., IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, Vol. 17, No. 3, Aug., 2002, pp. 590-596.

Wen, F., David, A. K., Optimal bidding strategies and modeling of imperfect information among competitive generators., IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, Vol. 16, No. 1, Feb., 2001, pp. 15-21.

Wu, F. F, Varaiya, P., Coordinated multilateral trades for electric power networks: Theory and Implementation., Working papers series of the Program on Workable Energy Regulation (POWER), University of California Energy Institute, PWP-031, June 1995.

Xian, W., Yuzeng, L., Shaohua, Z., Oligopolistic equilibrium analysis for electricity markets: a nonlinear complementarity approach., IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, Vol. 19, No. 3, Aug., 2004, pp. 1348-1355.

Zhang, D., Wang, Y., Luh, P. B., Optimization based bidding strategies in the deregulated market., IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, Vol. 15, No. 3, Aug., 2000, pp. 981-986.

Zhang, L., Luh, P. B., Kasiviswanathan, K., Energy clearing price prediction and confidence interval estimation with cascaded neural networks., IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, Vol. 18, No. 1, Feb., 2003, pp. 99-105.

Dimensions

PlumX

Article abstract page views

656

Downloads

Download data is not yet available.

How to Cite

A review of electricity market modelling tools. (2009). Ingeniería E Investigación, 29(3), 67-73. https://doi.org/10.15446/ing.investig.v29n3.15185

Most read articles by the same author(s)