Estimating marginal external costs for road, rail and river transport in Colombia
Estimación de costos externos marginales de los modos de transporte carretero, fluvial y ferroviario en Colombia
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.15446/ing.investig.v31n1.20525Keywords:
transport modelling, freight transport, external transport costs. (en)modelación del transporte, transporte de carga, costos externos del transporte (es)
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This report presents the results of research regarding strategic freight transport network modelling in Colombia using external cost. The model uses sequential equilibrium between distribution and traffic assignment phases; it is national and inter-regional, involving strategic decision-making. The Colombian transport network consists of 27,469 km of roads, 11,257 km of navigable rivers, 2,192 km of railway lines and a set of centroid connectors for establishing a link with the zoning system (consisting of 70 internal areas and 8 external areas). Each link in a network involves internal costs: time, operation and external costs, congestion, accidents, air pollution and CO2 emissions. Vehicle ownership costs were excluded from internal cost analysis; costs such as noise, climate change and effects on the landscape were not studied in external costs. Marginal costs regarding the network were estimated by two methods. First, it was assumed that an additional unit of demand did not affect equilibrium in a transport network and then marginal cost was estimated as being the sum of marginal costs regarding links in the shortest path. The other approach assumed that an additional unit of demand changed network equilibrium; marginal costs were then estimated by calculating the difference between the two equilibrium scenarios. The methods were applied to 7 selected routes covering the most important Colombian freight transport corridors. An average 0.014 US$/ton/km rate was estimated for external costs regarding highway transport, 0.000105 US$/ton/km for water transport and 0.001625 US$/ton/km for railroad transport (preponderance of environmental costs exceeding 90%).
En este trabajo se presentan los resultados de la investigación para la modelación estratégica de transporte de carga en Colombia incluyendo sus costos externos. El modelo utilizado sigue una estructura secuencial de equilibrio entre las fases de distribución y asignación, es de escala nacional interregional, con una perspectiva de decisiones del orden estratégico. La red de transporte utilizada consta de 27.469 km de carreteras, 11.257 km de ríos navegables, 2.192 km de ferrocarril y un conjunto de conectores de centroides para establecer el nexo con el sistema de zonificación, compuesto por 70 zonas internas y 8 zonas externas. Cada arco de la red incluye, entre los costos internos, el del tiempo y el de operación, y entre los costos externos, la congestión, accidentes, polución del aire y emisiones de dióxido de carbono (CO2). El análisis de costos internos no incluyó los de posesión vehicular, y en la evaluación de los costos externos no se tuvieron en cuenta los relacionados con ruido, afectación del paisaje y cambio climático. El cálculo de costos marginales sobre la red se hace aplicando dos métodos. El primero supone que la demanda adicional no afecta el equilibrio de la red y estima el costo marginal sumando los costos marginales sobre los arcos de la ruta más corta. El segundo presume variación del equilibrio existente y estima el costo marginal calculando la diferencia entre las dos situaciones de equilibrio. Los dos métodos son aplicados sobre siete corredores de transporte de carga en Colombia. En los costos externos se encuentra un promedio de 28 $/ton/km en el modo de transporte carretero; 0,21 $/ton/km en el modo de transporte fluvial y 3,25 $/ton/km en el modo de transporte ferroviario, con una preponderancia de los costos ambientales superior al 90%.
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