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Pronóstico de la precipitación máxima en 24 horas en la Zona Cafetera
Se presenta un estudio para determinar los parámetros estadísticos y las características de los residuos en las series de precipitación máxima en 24 horas con un nivel de agregación temporal mensual, para estaciones localizadas sobre la cuenca del río Cauca, en los departamentos de Caldas, Quindío, Risaralda y la parte norte del departamento del Valle del Cauca. Las series de tiempo se ajustan a modelos de predicción ARIMA cuyos resultados, basados en los criterios de menor error y pruebas estadísticas, conducen a obtener un residuo de tipo ruido blanco. Para validar el modelo de predicción, en las estaciones que cuentan con registros posteriores al periodo concurrente seleccionado, se realizan pruebas al residuo para verificar que corresponden a variables de tipo normal independiente. Finalmente, se hace una correlación cruzada entre registros de estaciones vecinas, o que se ajusten a un mismo modelo ARIMA con el fin de identificar la existencia de posibles relaciones estadísticas a escala regional.
The study presented here has been conducted with the aim of determine the statistical properties of maximum 24-hr rainfall monthly series. The investigation has considered rainfall stations located in the Provinces of Caldas, Quindío, Risaralda and the northern part of Valle del Cauca. Forecasting models like ARIMA have been adjusted and validated using the monthly series of 24-hr rainfall. Besides, analyses of cross correlation have been made in order to study the possible regional statistical relationships.
References
Bras R., Rodríguez-Iturbe I. “Random Functions and Hydrology”. Dover Publications, Inc. E.U. (1993).
Chin, D.A. “A Scale Model of Multivariate Rainfall Time Series”. Journal of Hydrology (Amsterdam). 168 (1): 1-16. (19)
Chow, V.T. “Hidrología Aplicada”. Mc Graw Hill. Bogotá. (1994).
Feddes, R. “Space and Time Scale Variability and Interdependencies in Hydrological Processes”. Unesco. (1995).
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Copyright (c) 2000 Erasmo A. Rodríguez S., José A. Torres R., Pedro J. León Díaz
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