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Statistical modelling of fine red wine production
Modelado estadístico de la producción de vinos tintos finos
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.15446/ing.investig.v30n1.15224Keywords:
wine industry, probabilistic model, lineal regression (en)industria vitivinícola, modelo probabilístico, regresión lineal (es)
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Producing wine is a very important economic activity in the province of San Juan in Argentina; it is therefore most important to predict production regarding the quantity of raw material needed. This work was aimed at obtaining a model relating kilograms of crushed grape to the liters of wine so produced. Such model will be used for predicting precise future values and confidence intervals for determined quantities of crushed grapes. Data from a vineyard in the province of San Juan was thus used in this work. The sampling coefficient of correlation was calculated and a dispersion diagram was then constructed; this indicated a lineal relationship between the liters of wine obtained and the kilograms of crushed grape. Two lineal models were then adopted and variance analysis was carried out because the data came from normal populations having the same variance. The most appropriate model was obtained from this analysis; it was validated with experimental values, a good approach being obtained.
En la provincia de San Juan, Argentina, la elaboración del vino es una de las actividades económicas más importantes. Para este tipo de industria, es de fundamental importancia predecir la cantidad de producción en función de la cantidad de materia prima. El objetivo de este trabajo es la obtención de un modelo que relacione los kilogramos de uva molidos con los litros de vino producidos. Dicho modelo se usará para realizar predicciones de valores futuros, puntuales y por intervalos de confianza para un nivel determinado de molienda. A tal fin, se trabajó con datos obtenidos de una bodega ubicada en la provincia de San Juan. En primer lugar, se calculó el coeficiente de correlación muestral y se realizó un diagrama de dispersión, el cual indicó una marcada relación lineal entre los litros de vino obtenidos y los kilogramos de uva molidos. Posteriormente, se adoptaron dos modelos lineales y se efectuó el análisis de varianza, ya que los datos provenían de poblaciones normales con igual varianza. De este análisis se desprendió el modelo más adecuado, el cual fue validado con valores experimentales, obteniendo una buena aproximación de estos.
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Copyright (c) 2010 María Rosa Castro, Marcelo Eduardo Echegaray, Rosa Ana Rodríguez, Stella Maris Udaquiola
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