Muertes, infecciones e inmunidad de rebaño en la pandemia por COVID-19: un estudio comparativo de las estrategias de control de la pandemia implementadas en Perú y Reino Unido

Publicado

2022-04-01

Deaths, infections, and herd immunity in the COVID-19 pandemic: A comparative study of the strategies for disease containment implemented in Peru and the United Kingdom

Muertes, infecciones e inmunidad de rebaño en la pandemia por COVID-19: un estudio comparativo de las estrategias de control de la pandemia implementadas en Perú y Reino Unido

Palabras clave:

COVID-19, SARS-CoV-2, Peru, United Kingdom, Herd Immunity, Mortality (en)
COVID-19, SARS-CoV-2, Perú, Reino Unido, Inmunidad de rebaño, Mortalidad (es)

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Autores/as

Jeel Moya-Salazar Universidad Privada Norbert Wiener – South American Center for Research in Education and Public Health - Lima - Peru. | Universidad Tecnológica del Perú - Facultad de Ingeniería - Escuela de Biomedicina - Lima - Perú. https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7357-4940
Betsy Cañari Universidad Privada Norbert Wiener – South American Center for Research in Education and Public Health - Lima - Peru. https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4526-0848
Nahomi Zuñiga Universidad Privada Norbert Wiener – South American Center for Research in Education and Public Health - Lima - Peru. https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9281-3508
Alexis Jaime-Quispe Universidad Privada Norbert Wiener – South American Center for Research in Education and Public Health - Lima - Peru. https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3117-3495
Victor Rojas-Zumaran Hospital Nacional Docente Madre Niño San Bartolomé - Departamento de Patología - Lima - Perú. https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9859-684X
Hans Contreras-Pulache Universidad Privada Norbert Wiener – South American Center for Research in Education and Public Health - Lima - Peru. https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2450-9349

Resumen (en)
Resumen (es)

Introduction: In light of the threat posed by the COVID-19 pandemic, most countries have implemented several containment and prevention measures to slow down the rapid spread of the disease.

Objectives: To compare the COVID-19 pandemic containment strategies implemented in Peru [World Health Organization (WHO) - confinement and social distancing] and the United Kingdom [herd immunity (HI)] in terms of morbidity and mortality, and to simulate the implementation of HI in Peru during the initial stage of the pandemic.

Materials and methods: Exploratory study with a simulation model based on official data obtained from both countries at the beginning of the pandemic. Mortality, case fatality, and infection rates documented within the first 55 days after the first COVID-19 case report in the United Kingdom and the start of the WHO-recommended containment and prevention strategy implementation in Peru were evaluated. Additionally, the impact of applying HI, according to WHO guidelines, as the initial strategy in Peru was simulated. The Paired-samples t-test was used to determine the differences between the two strategies at both stages of the study.

Results: During the follow-up period, 15 034 and 33 931 COVID-19 cases were reported in the United Kingdom and Peru, respectively. The case fatality rate was higher in the United Kingdom (7.82% vs. 2.74%), while the cumulative mortality rate was higher in Peru (2.89 vs. 1.74×100 000 inhabitants p=0.0001). Regarding the simulation, a minimum critical population of 60% (>19 million positive cases) was established for Peru to achieve HI, with 1 223 473.1 deaths and a hospitalization rate of 44 770×100 000 patients.

Conclusions: During the follow-up period (55 days), the United Kingdom’s strategy resulted in a higher case fatality rate, while the Peruvian strategy in over twice as many COVID-19 cases. The HI simulation strategy in Peru showed a sharp increase in all unfavorable indicators of the pandemic.

Introducción. Ante la amenaza de la pandemia por COVID-19, la mayoría de los países han establecido diversas medidas de control y prevención para disminuir la rápida propagación de esta enfermedad.

Objetivos. Comparar las estrategias de control de la pandemia por COVID-19 implementadas en Perú (de confinamiento y distanciamiento social de la Organización Mundial de la Salud (OMS)) y Reino Unido (de inmunidad de rebaño (IR)) en términos de morbimortalidad, y simular la implementación de la IR en Perú durante la etapa inicial de la pandemia.

Materiales y métodos. Estudio exploratorio con un modelo de simulación basado en datos oficiales de ambos países registrados al inicio de la pandemia. Se evaluaron las tasas de mortalidad, letalidad e infección en Reino Unido (IR) y Perú (confinamiento y distanciamiento social) dentro de los 55 días posteriores al reporte del primer caso de COVID-19 en Reino Unido y al inicio de la implementación de la estrategia de control y prevención recomendada por la OMS en Perú. Además, se simuló el impacto de haber aplicado la IR, según pautas de la OMS, como estrategia inicial en Perú. Se utilizó la prueba t-Student para muestras relacionadas para determinar las diferencias entre ambas estrategias en las dos etapas del estudio.

Resultados. En el periodo de seguimiento se registraron 15 034 y 33 931 casos de COVID-19 en Reino Unido y Perú, respectivamente. La tasa de letalidad fue mayor para Reino Unido (7.82% vs. 2.74%), y la tasa de mortalidad acumulada fue mayor en Perú (2.89 vs. 1.74×100 000 habitantes; p=0.0001). Respecto a la simulación, se estableció una población crítica mínima de 60% (>19 millones de casos positivos) para que Perú logre la IR, con 1 223 473.1 muertes y una tasa de hospitalización de 44 770×100 000 pacientes.

Conclusiones. Durante el periodo de seguimiento (55 días), la estrategia de Reino Unido resultó en una mayor letalidad y la peruana, en más del doble de casos de COVID-19. La simulación de la IR en Perú mostró un dramático incremento de todos los indicadores desfavorables de la pandemia.

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