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Métodos de previsão de demanda: uma revisão da literatura
Demand Forecasting Methods: A Literature Review
Métodos de predicción de demanda: una revisión de la literatura
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.15446/innovar.v32n85.100979Palabras clave:
métodos de previsão de demanda, previsão, previsão de demanda, revisão (pt)métodos de predicción de demanda, previsión, revisión, previsión de demanda (es)
Demand forecasting methods, forecasting, demand forecasting, literature review (en)
a previsão de demanda é uma metodologia da administração de empresas para estimar um valor futuro de uma grandeza de interesse. Realizar previsões de demanda significa reconhecer padrões de comportamento em séries históricas e predizer o comportamento futuro ou, ainda, identificar fatores causais que afetam o comportamento e extrapolá-lo. Este artigo tem por objetivo realizar uma revisão da literatura dos métodos de previsão de demanda com o propósito de reunir os métodos e os modelos disponíveis acerca dos conceitos utilizados atualmente na administração de empresas relacionados ao consumo e à produção de produtos e serviços. A metodologia utilizada é a revisão da literatura com abordagem qualitativa, com o propósito de dar uma visão descritiva geral dos métodos dominantes utilizados em previsão de demanda. Foi realizado o mapeamento da literatura para identificar o estado da ciência por meio da produção científica disponível nos bancos de dados Scopus e Google Scholar. Os métodos qualitativos e os causais estão mais bem associados a previsões de médio e longo prazos. A análise de séries temporais bem como os métodos dos diversos tipos de médias e de suavização exponencial são indicados como os mais adequados para previsões de curto prazo. Um recurso utilizado em diversas realidades é a construção de um modelo próprio de previsão de demanda, o qual utilize técnicas, aspectos, conceitos e características de diferentes métodos e modelos. É fundamental monitorar o modelo adotado, manter os dados de campo e de previsão sob controle e, se houver desvios, corrigir o modelo.
Demand forecasting is a business management methodology for estimating the future value of customer demand. Making this type of forecast means recognizing behavior patterns in historical series and predicting future behaviors, or even identifying and extrapolating causal factors that affect market behavior. Hence, this article aims to review the literature on demand forecasting methods in order to gather the methods and models currently used in business administration related to the consumption and production of goods and services. A qualitative literature review was implemented with the purpose of providing a general descriptive view of the dominant methods used in demand forecasting. A mapping of the available literature was conducted to build the state of the art on the topic through the scientific production included in Scopus and Google Scholar databases. Results show that qualitative and causal methods are better associated with medium and long-term forecasts. In addition, the analysis of time series and the methods of the diverse types of averages and exponential smoothing are mentioned as the most suitable for short-term forecasts. A resource that is commonly deployed is the construction of specific demand forecast models, using techniques, aspects, concepts and characteristics from different methods and models. However, it is important to monitor the adopted model, keep field and forecast data under control, and, in case of deviations, correct the model.
La predicción de demanda es una metodología de la administración de empresas para estimar un valor futuro de una grandeza de interés. Realizar predicción de demanda significa reconocer estándares de conducta en series históricas y predecir la conducta o, aun, identificar factores causales que afectan la conducta y extrapolarla. El artículo tiene el propósito realizar una revisión de la literatura de los métodos de predicción de demanda con el fin de reunir los métodos y modelos disponibles acerca de los conceptos utilizados actualmente en la administración de empresas relacionados al consumo y producción de productos y servicios. La metodología utilizada es la revisión de la literatura con enfoque cualitativo, con el propósito de dar una visión descriptiva general de los métodos dominantes utilizados en predicción de demanda. Se realizó el mapeo de la literatura para identificar el estado de la ciencia por medio de la producción científica disponible en los bancos de datos Scopus y Google Scholar. El análisis de series temporales, así como los métodos de los diversos tipos de medianas y suavización exponencial se indican como los más adecuados para predicciones de corto plazo. Un recurso utilizado en diversas realidades es la construcción de un modelo propio de predicción de demanda, que utilice técnicas, aspectos, conceptos y características de diferentes métodos y modelos. Es fundamental monitorear el modelo adoptado, mantener los datos de campo y predicción bajo control y, si hubo desviaciones, corregir el modelo.
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