IMPACTO DE CRISIS ACERCA DEL COMPORTAMIENTO DE AHORRAR DE FAMILIAS AMERICANAS

Publicado

2017-10-01

Impacto de Crise sobre o Comportamento de Poupança de Famílias Americanas

The Impact of Crisis on Household Savings Behavior in the United States

IMPACTO DE CRISIS ACERCA DEL COMPORTAMIENTO DE AHORRAR DE FAMILIAS AMERICANAS

Palabras clave:

crise financeira, finanças pessoais, poupança, subprime, survey of consumer finances (pt)
Financial crisis, personal finance, savings, subprime, Survey of Consumer Finances (en)
ahorro, crisis financiera, finanzas personales, subprime, survey of consumer finances (es)

Descargas

Autores/as

Otávio do Amaral Gurgel Carneiro de Oliv Fundação Getúlio Vargas https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2238-2102
Israel José dos Santos Felipe Universidade Federal de Ouro Preto https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8608-0029
Wesley Mendes-Da-Silva Fundação Getúlio Vargas https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5500-4872

Este estudo utiliza dados do Survey of Consumer Finances (SGF) de 2007 e 2013 para examinar a propensão à poupança das famílias americanas no período de pré e pós-crise econômica, baseando-se no modelo de dois períodos de consumo/poupança de Bowman, Minehart e Rabin (1999). Esse modelo assume existência de assimetria no comportamento de poupança dos agentes em resposta a choques positivos e negativos na renda. Os resultados obtidos via modelos logit sugerem que a crise tenha aumentado a relevância de fatores como número de filhos, idade, grau de instrução, renda e incerteza econômica; enquanto patrimônio, tolerância a risco financeiro, horizonte de investimento, saúde e possuir casa própria foram fatores que perderam relevância. As evidências sugerem que eventos da magnitude da crise de 2008 podem ocasionar mudanças no comportamento financeiro dos agentes, as quais são inteiramente explicadas pelos choques financeiros.

This study used data from the Survey of Consumer Finances (SGF) for 2007 and 2013 in order to examine the propensity to savings of American households in the pre- and post-economic crisis, based on the two-period consumption/savings model by Bowman, Minehart and Rabin (1999). This model assumes there is an asymmetry in agents' savings behavior in response to positive and negative shocks in the income. The results obtained by logistic regression suggest that economic crisis has increased the relevance of factors such as number of children, age, education level, income and economic uncertainty, while equity, financial risk tolerance, investment horizon, health and home ownership were factors that lost relevance. The evidence suggests that events with the magnitude of the 2008 crisis may lead to changes in the financial behavior of agents who are not entirely explained by the financial impacts suffered.

El estudio utiliza datos del Survey of Consumer Finances (SGF) del 2007 y el 2012 para analizar la propensión al ahorro de las familias americanas en el periodo pre y post crisis económica. Se basa en el modelo de dos períodos de consumo/ahorro de Bowman, Minehart y Rabin (1999), el que asume existencia de asimetría en la conducta de ahorrar de los actores en respuesta a choques positivos y negativos en los ingresos. Los resultados obtenidos vía modelos logit sugieren que la crisis haya aumentado la relevancia de factores como número de hijos, edad, escolaridad, ingresos e incertidumbre económica; mientras que patrimonio, tolerancia a riesgo financiero, plan de inversión, salud y vivienda propia fueran factores que perdieron relevancia. Las evidencias sugieren que eventos de la magnitud de la crisis del 2008 pueden ocasionar cambios en el comportamiento financiero de los agentes, los que son completamente explicados por los choques financieros.

Descargas

Los datos de descargas todavía no están disponibles.

Citas

Ando, A., e Modigliani, F. (1963). The 'life-cycle' hypothesis of saving: aggregate implications and tests. American Economic Review.

Babiarz, P., e Robb, C.A. (2014). Financial literacy and emergency saving. Journal of Family Economic Issues, 35. doi: 10.1007/s10834-0139369-9.

Barberis, N., e Thaler, R. (2002). A Survey of Behavioral Finance. Cambridge, National Bureau of Economic Research. Recuperado em 05 março, 2015, em Recuperado em 05 março, 2015, em http://www.nber.org/papers/w9222 . DOI: 10.3386/w9222.

Bohrnstedt, G.W.; Knoke, D., e Mee, A.P. (1982). Statistics for Social Data Analysis, 4 ed. Peacock: Illinois.

Bowman, D., Minehart, D., e Rabin, M. (1999). Loss aversion in a consumption-savings model. Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, 38. DOI: 10.1016/S0167-2681(99)00004-9.

Braun Santos, D., Mendes-Da-Silva, W., Flores, E., e Norvilitis, J.M. (2016). Predictors of credit card use and perceived financial well-being in female college students: a Brazil-United States comparative study. International Journal of Consumer Studies, 40, 133-142. doi: 10.1111/ijcs.12234

Deaton, A. (1989). Saving in Developing Countries: Theory and Review. Proceedings of The World Bank Annual Conference on Development Economics.

Dos Santos Felipe, I. J., Ermel, M. D. A., Cassius, L. F. P., & Mendes-da-Silva, W. (2017). Efeito de Crise Econômica sobre Escolhas de Ativos para Investimentos Pessoais/Economic Crisis Effect on Asset Choices for Personal Investments. Revista de Administração Contemporânea, 21, 84.

Emmons, W.R., e Noeth, B.J. (2012). Household Financial Stability: Who Suffered Most from the Crisis? The Regional Economist.

Federal Reserve. (2014). Changes in U.S. Family Finances from 2010 to 2013: Evidence from the Survey of Consumer Finances. Federal Reserve Bulletin, 100(4). Recuperado em 05 março, 2015, em: Recuperado em 05 março, 2015, em: https://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/bulletin/2014/pdf/scf14.pdf

Federal Reserve Board. (2007). 2007 Survey of Consumer Finances. Recuperado em 05 março, 2015, em Recuperado em 05 março, 2015, em http://www.federalreserve.gov/econresdata/scf/scf_2007.htm .

Federal Reserve Board. (2013). 2013 Survey of Consumer Finances. Recuperado em 05 março, 2015, em Recuperado em 05 março, 2015, em http://www.federalreserve.gov/econresdata/scf/scfindex.htm .

Fisher, P.J. (2010). Gender Differences in Personal Saving Behaviors. Journal of Financial Counseling and Planning, 21(1), 14-24.

Fisher, P.J., e Anong, S.T. (2012). Relationship of Saving Motives to Saving Habits. Journal of Financial Counseling and Planning, 23(1).

Fisher, P.J., e Hsu, C. (2012). Differences in Household Saving Between non-Hispanic White and Hispanic Households. Hispanic Journal of Behavioral Sciences, 34. doi: 10.1177/0739986311428891

Fisher, P.J., e Montalto, C.P. (2010). Effect of saving motives and horizon on saving behaviors. Journal of Economic Psychology, 31. DOI: 10.1016/j.joep.2009.11.002

Fisher, P.J., e Montalto, C.P. (2011). Loss aversion and saving behavior: Evidence from the 2007 U.S. Survey of Consumer Finance. Journal of Family and Economic Issues, 32. doi: 10.1007/s10834-010-9196-1

Fredrickson, J.E. (2013). Prospect theory and saving behaviors during the Great Recession: 2009 SGF Panel Survey results. Journal of Behavioral Studies in Business, 6(1).

Friedman, M. (1957). A theory of the consumption function. Princeton University Press. Princeton.

Heckman, S., e Hanna, S.D. (2012). Factors Related to Saving Behavior among Low-Income Households in the 1992-2007 Survey of Consumer Finances. Proceedings of the Academy of Financial Services. Disponível em SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2178264

Kahneman, D., e Tversky, A. (1979). Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision Under Risk. Econometrica, 47(2). doi: 10.2307/1914185

Katona, G. (1975). Psychological economics. Nova Iorque: Elsevier.

Kennickell, A.B. (2012) The Other, Other Half: Changes in the Finances of the Least Wealthy 50 Percent, 2007-2009. Finance & Economic Discussion Paper, Federal Reserve Board Washington D.C.

Kennickell, A.B., e Lusardi, A. (2005). Disentangling the importance of the precautionary savings motive. Center for Financial Studies Working Paper Series.

Keynes, J.M. (1936). The general theory of employment, interest and money. Londres: Macmillan.

Lee, J.M., e Hanna, S.D. (2015). Savings Goals and Saving Behavior from a Perspective of Maslow's Hierarchy of Needs. Journal of Financial Counseling and Planning, 26(2), 129-147.

Mendes-Da-Silva, W., Costa Junior, N.C., Barros, L.A.B.C, Armada, M.J.R., & Norvilitis, J.M. (2015). Behavioral Finance: Advances in the Last Decade. Revista de Administração de Empresas, 55, 1013. doi: 10.1590/S0034-75902150102

Mendes-Da-Silva, W., Gattaz, C.C., & Gibson, D.V. (2016). Decisão sob ignorância e Disclosure de Produto: Implicações na Compra de Seguros. Proceedings 40.° EnAnpad.

Modigliani, F., e Brumberg, R.H. (1954). Utility analysis and the consumption function: an interpretation of cross-section data. Kenneth K. Kurihara, Ed. Post Keynesian Economics, New Brunswick.

Moore, J.F., e Mitchell, O.S. (1997). Projected retirement wealth and savings adequacy in the health and retirement study. National Bureau of Economic Research. doi: 10.3386/w6240

Pfeffer, F.T., Danziger, S., e Schoeni, R.F. (2013). Wealth Disparities Before and After the Great Recession. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan. doi: 10.1177/0002716213497452

Potrich, A. C. G., Vieira, K. M., & Mendes-Da-Silva, W. (2016). Development of a financial literacy model for university students. Management Research Review, 39(3), 356-376.

Rha, J.Y., Montalto, C., e Hanna, S.D. (2006). The effect of self-control mechanisms on household saving behavior. Journal of Financial Counseling and Planning, 17(2).

Shefrin, H.M., e Statman, M. (1985). The disposition to sell winners too early and ride losers too long: theory and evidence. Journal of Finance, 40(3), 777-90.

Shefrin, H.M., e Thaler, R.H. (1988). The behavioral life-cycle hypothesis. Economic Inquiry, 26(4). doi: 10.1111/j.1465-7295.1988.tb01520.x

Social Security Administration [SSA] (2013). Recuperado em 05 dezembro, 2015, em Recuperado em 05 dezembro, 2015, em https://www.ssa.gov/ .

Taylor, P., Kochhar, R., Fry, R., Velasco, G., e Motel, S. (2011). Wealth Gaps Rise to Record Highs Between Whites, Blacks and Hispanics. Pew Social and Demographic Trends. Washington D.C.

Whitaker, E.A., Bokemeiner, J.L., e Loveridge, S. (2013). Interactional Associations of Gender on Savings Behavior: Showing Gender Continued Influence on Economic Action. Journal of Family and Economic Issues, 34(1). DOI: 10.1007/s10834-012-9307-2

Yuh, Y., e Hanna, S.D. (2010). Which households think they save? The Journal of Consumer Affairs, 44. doi: 10.1111/j.1745-6606.2010.01158.x.

Licencia

Derechos de autor 2017 Innovar

Esta obra está bajo una licencia internacional Creative Commons Reconocimiento-NoComercial-CompartirIgual 3.0.

Todos los artículos publicados por Innovar se encuentran disponibles globalmente con acceso abierto y licenciados bajo los términos de Creative Commons Atribución-No_Comercial-Sin_Derivadas 4.0 Internacional (CC BY-NC-ND 4.0).

Una vez seleccionados los artículos para un número, y antes de iniciar la etapa de cuidado y producción editorial, los autores deben firmar una cesión de derechos patrimoniales de su obra. Innovar se ciñe a las normas colombianas en materia de derechos de autor.

El material de esta revista puede ser reproducido o citado con carácter académico, citando la fuente.

Esta obra está bajo una Licencia Creative Commons: